RMB High Opening Low Income Market Is Expected To Re Differentiate

< p > RMB to us dollar < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > spot exchange rate < /a > Tuesday (March 25th) high opening low income, the disc fluctuated to 300 points, and at the end of the market fell below 6.20 yuan pass.

After a sharp rise in the value of the renminbi yesterday, the market which is already biased toward devaluation is expected to re differentiate. It may maintain a horizontal consolidation pattern in the short term and wait for directions.

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< p > market participants believe that the current expectations are more differentiated, and the exchange rate rises and demotion is supported by reason, while regulators also have the intention to maintain the expected market segmentation. They do not want to see the expectation of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "unilateral or /a".

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"P >" one city business paction director "said:" at present, the market is driven by two-way fluctuations, which may be consolidated above 6.16 yuan in the short term. "

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< p > today's intra day trading fluctuated widely in the range of about 300 6.1732-6.2033 yuan. In addition to the slight decline of the late trading, most of the time exchange rate rose or fell.

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< p > a share line trader said that the current "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "market expectation < /a > is not panic. The official broad fluctuation intention has already manifested, then the middle price should remain stable.

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< p > a foreign trader believes that the recent practice of regulators is to break the market's unilateral expectations and stop losses until they leave the field.

"In this process, he can also see our cards, and know whether we have stop loss, not only will we not stop."

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< p > market participants believe that the fundamentals and market expectations still change towards the direction of RMB appreciation.

Towards the end of the first quarter, the possibility of recovering the current account surplus is large. In addition, the foreign currency spreads still exist, and capital has the need to maintain inflow.

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< p > China Merchants Bank head office senior analyst Liu Dongliang [micro-blog] said that from the grassroots survey, the current customers continue to see more Renminbi and additional margin "not a few", although it is not good to distinguish between real demand and arbitrage motives, but at least the general direction of the market is still looking at RMB.

In addition, the price of foreign exchange settlement after the devaluation of the early Yuan has also attracted some real demand for settlement.

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< p > from this point of view, if the regulators do have the purpose of combating unilateral expectations and squeezing arbitrage funds, then the depreciation of the exchange rate will not be enough and there will be a risk of continued derogation.

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< p > he believes that the trend of exchange rate in the two directions is not surprising at all. The market may need to further observe the guidance of various political and economic levels.

Especially during the "Olympic Games", President Obama urged China to push forward a more flexible market exchange rate system. How China will deal with the relationship between policy and market will also be a factor to consider.

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In the global market, the US dollar index remained stable on Tuesday. Last day, the US manufacturing activity was disappointing and fell. P

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< p > related links: < /p >

< p > today, the spot exchange rate of RMB opened at 6.1828, compared with 6.1959 on the previous trading day, with a sharp appreciation of 131 basis points.

Intraday hit today's highest point of 6.1775.

At the close, the spot exchange rate of RMB was 6.2017, down 58 basis points.

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< p > today, the people's Bank of China (micro-blog) authorized the China foreign exchange trading center to announce that the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1426, a slight appreciation of 26 basis points.

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Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, micro-blog [micro-blog] released the latest research report, pointing out that the recent rapid devaluation of the renminbi is surprising.

Fundamentally speaking, it should be related to the weakening of China's economic cycle, the downside of interbank interest rates and the rise of credit risk.

However, the psychological impact brought about by the expansion of exchange rate volatility and the reversal of trade financing and cross-border arbitrage power may also have a significant impact.

According to Anxin securities, most of the factors leading to the depreciation of the exchange rate are short-term and the other part is cyclical.

Therefore, the possibility of sustained depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is very small.

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