Foreign Trade Exports Fluctuate Violently And RMB Exchange Rate Changes Frequently.

< p > China's Spring Festival holiday started in January 31st, eight days earlier than last year.

< a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Zheng Yuesheng < /a > explained that enterprises should advance the commodities exported in February to January, and last year's Spring Festival long holidays in mid February, and January exports to January relatively small, which also led to the high proportion of February this year. These are the reasons for the sharp decline in export.

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< p >, he said, "judging the beginning of the year" a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > foreign trade import and export < /a >, we should mainly refer to the cumulative year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter.

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< p > it is not surprising that the trade deficit will be reproduced in February. Especially the Spring Festival factors often lead to trade deficits in the first few months of the year.

Since China's accession to the WTO, there has been an obvious monthly trade deficit in January 2003 and March, February 2004, March 2010, February 2011, February 2012 and February 2012.

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< p > "still feel it is expected that the import and export growth in January was faster than that in February, and it is also normal." Xie Ya Hsien also said, "from a historical perspective, the surplus in February is small and even deficit is normal. This is also related to the habit of catching up with foreign trade before the festival and the habit of catching up after the holidays.

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< p > he believes that 1 and February together are basically normal and external demand is slowly recovering.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB to us dollar < /a > depreciated by about 1.4% in February this year, which has changed steadily since 2012.

On the last trading day of February, the RMB exchange rate depreciated to 10 in 6.1808 days.

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< p > Xie Yaxuan pointed out that, from the understanding of most bank traders, it has been for some time that passenger exchanges have been biased towards foreign exchange settlement, while foreign exchange purchase is concentrated in a few large banks. The distribution of foreign exchange purchase by enterprises is not restricted. For example, the demand for foreign exchange purchase such as petroleum and automobiles is concentrated in large banks, but this needs further investigation and analysis.

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< p > he said, "guess that the foreign trade data will have a further differentiation effect on the RMB exchange rate. Ordinary customers may adjust their own structure of foreign exchange purchase and purchase according to the foreign exchange supply and demand data of import and export."

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< p > Huang Yi, director of foreign exchange trading of GFB, also said that the weakening of the RMB exchange rate in February was consistent with the foreign trade situation in February. However, it is necessary to make accurate interpretation of the foreign exchange supply and demand in the month when the data on foreign exchange and sales in February are needed.

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< p > RMB dropped against the US dollar on Friday, closing down sharply in the morning market, reversing the trend of the three consecutive days.

Traders said that the possibility of two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate was high during the two sessions. Given that the renminbi had risen several days ago, there was a demand for concussion in the short term.

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< p > Li Huiyong said, "the tendency of monetary policy reform is to let the interest rate give way to the exchange rate, which is mainly to expand the bilateral fluctuation of the RMB and make the market play a bigger role, creating favorable conditions for the cross border use of RMB, and also helping to introduce derivatives."

He expects the RMB to continue to appreciate 2-3% in a moderate year.

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