Purchase Or Storage Policy Or Curtain Call Cotton Direct Subsidy To Be Published

< p > 2013, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > is still "policy city".

Under the influence of many factors such as oversupply of fundamentals and weakness of downstream consumption, the acquisition and sale of 2013 national cotton stores are again performing on the same stage. Cotton spot prices are going up and down. Futures prices are weak and volatile for a long time, and their positions and turnover continue to slide.

< /p >

< p > looking forward to 2014, the policy of purchasing and storing for three years will come to a curtain call. The cotton direct subsidy policy needs to be promulgated urgently. "Direct subsidy + throw store" will become the long-term leading factor of cotton market in 2014.

Analysts believe that once the cotton price is marketed again, the function of the futures market will be brought into full play again.

Fundamentally speaking, high storage pressure and weak downstream demand resulted in an increase in downward pressure on domestic cotton prices in 2014.

< /p >

< p > < strong > double track system makes Zheng cotton lose its elasticity < /strong > < /p >

< p > reviewing the cotton futures market in 2013, the national cotton purchasing and storing, throwing and storing always affect the market sensitive nerves. In 2013, Zheng cotton overall maintained a weak and volatile market for a long time.

< /p >

< p > "generally speaking, the cotton market in 2013 can still be described with great surprise. The price fluctuation is not large, and Zheng Mian's position and turnover remain low and lack of popularity."

Huaan futures analyst Li Li analysis, in 2013, Zheng cotton futures market mainly divided into three stages: the first stage was from the beginning of the year to the end of January, because of the uplink of the US cotton rose and the shortage of warehouse receipts by Zheng merchants, the CF1305 of the main contract rose strongly, and the increase was over 4%; the second stage was from the first ten days of February to the early part of July, and the operation of the double track operation of the purchase and storage, the cotton price up and down, and the long-term maintenance of the interval turbulence; the third stage was from July to December in July, and the new cotton market increased the supply pressure.

< /p >

< p > the industry believes that the state's policy of purchasing and storing, and storing round can change the supply relationship of the market, thus affecting the trend of cotton price and causing the loss of "elasticity" of Zheng cotton futures.

< /p >

According to the futures statistics of Huatai the Great Wall, as of December 27th, the number of cotton reserves has been accumulated to about 490 thousand tons as of December 27th. The actual turnover is about 240 thousand tons, with a turnover ratio of 47.8%. Cotton registered warehouse receipts are 159, and 41 effective forecasts are available, which is equivalent to 8000 tons of inventory, only enough to meet the number of deliveries of 1600 hands of buyers, far less than the number of futures.

Zhang Liang, a futures analyst at Huatai the Great Wall, said that the purchase of storage would make the registered warehouse receipts in the futures market limited, and the low volume of registered warehouse receipts would continue to perplex the domestic cotton futures market and limit the space for its downlink.

< /p >

Under the guidance of the policy, the price trend of China's cotton market is relatively stable in the first half of the year. Under the heavy inventory pressure, the cotton operation center of gravity shifted down in the second half of the year. "P"

According to Yu Lijuan, analyst at Jinshi futures, in 2013, the turnover and positions of Zheng cotton futures market were significantly reduced. At present, only 20 thousand hands of daily turnover and 90 thousand hand positions are maintained, far below the daily turnover of 300-400 hands and 50-60 million positions in the active trading period.

< /p >

< p > < strong > storage and replacement will improve the activity < /strong > < /p >

< p > the industry believes that so far, the national cotton throwing policy has played an important role in protecting the farmers' income and throwing away the storage.

However, the purchase and storage mechanism has been criticized for distorting the market, resulting in the cost of processing factories to import cotton is still lower than domestic cotton. In 2013, the price gap at home and abroad has been at a high level for a long time. In the second half of the year, because the ICE period cotton continued to fall, the time limit spread even continued to expand, the highest was over 4700 yuan / ton.

< /p >

< p > after three years of policy market, 2013/2014 is expected to become the end of the three year policy of purchasing and storing.

China's finance minister Lou Jiwei has recently proposed that agricultural products prices and market regulation mechanisms should be improved, and the minimum purchase price and temporary purchase and storage policy should be promoted to the "price premium separation".

< /p >

"P >" cotton intervention and storage policy in 2012 was too much interference in cotton prices, so cotton prices were priced in confusion, and cotton farmers also did not receive much protection. It should be a policy of more harm than good, and did not conform to the central policy tendency.

As a matter of fact, there is no more room for implementation of the purchase and storage of cotton. The scale of the reserve has been quite large, and further storage and acquisition are facing many difficulties, such as price, capital, storage capacity, storage management, and so on.

Guang Fa futures analyst Liu Qingli said that the introduction of direct subsidy policy meant that the interests of the most upstream cotton farmers could be managed and the cotton price should be handed over to the market.

If the direct subsidy policy is launched smoothly in 2014, the cotton market will face a huge pressure of throwing and storing. If the policy is liberalized, it will impact the domestic cotton market. This is the biggest potential pressure facing cotton city.

< /p >

"P >" up to now, 2014/2015 cotton season direct subsidy implementation rules are still under discussion, such as direct compensation amount and way and so on.

Because the subsidy level is directly related to the cost of lint, which is related to the interests of the upstream and downstream sides of the cotton market, and has a positioning effect on the annual cotton price running range, which is not inferior to the national policy of collecting and throwing stores over the years. So it has become the focus of domestic cotton market in 2013/2014. "

Chen Jing, an analyst with China Securities Futures, thinks that the price of national cotton put in from November 28th will be 18000 yuan / ton, but whether the price will be adjusted in the subsequent throwing and storage will also affect cotton prices.

< /p >

< p > Li Li said that the policy of withdrawing from storage and selling out of the market means that domestic cotton prices will move closer to the market. The government's direct intervention in cotton prices through administrative means has begun to move towards market regulation, which means that there is no longer the so-called reserve price reserve at home, and the domestic cotton price will depend on the international market.

At present, the domestic cotton price is far higher than the international cotton price far beyond 4000 yuan / ton, that is to say, the domestic cotton price in 2014 is facing great downward pressure.

< /p >

< p > it is worth noting that dumping in 2014 is also one of the main means by which the state regulates market supply and stabilize market prices.

Data show that in 2011 cotton purchase and storage totaled 3 million 120 thousand tons, 2012 cotton storage and storage totaled 6 million 500 thousand tons, it is estimated that the total volume of cotton purchase and storage in the 2013 year will also exceed 5 million 500 thousand tons, that is to say, in the past three years, the total storage capacity of the National Treasury is more than 15 million tons.

Excluding the estimated reserves of about 4 million 300 thousand tons in 2012/2013 and the ongoing dumping and storage, the State Reserve Stocks in 2014 still exceed 10 million tons.

Li Li believes that after 2014, the state will take inventory as the main source. Before the new cotton goes public, the state reserve cotton will be the mainstream of the market supply, and the level of throwing the reserve price will also have a greater impact on the market to some extent.

< /p >