Industry Sight: Deep Interpretation Of Coal Plate

< p > < strong > [event catalysis > /strong > /p >

< p > 1, port power < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > coal price < /a > continues to pick up, and the price of steam coal producing area rises in some areas < /p >

< p > up to December 2nd, port power coal prices continued to rise sharply, and the price of coal in Qinhuangdao 5800/5500/5000/4500 card rose by 20/15/15/10 yuan / ton to 625/605/560/475 yuan / ton respectively.

Jingtang Port's main coking coal price in Shanxi is stable at 1150 yuan / ton.

As of November 29th, the price of coal in some areas continued to rise, and the price of metallurgical coal and anthracite remained stable.

Newcastle port power coal price (6000 kcal) rebounded slightly from 0.7% to 83.35 US dollars / ton, and the CIF converted to Guangzhou was 2 yuan / ton lower than the domestic power coal price. The hard coke coal price in Queensland dropped slightly from 1.3% to 140.66 US dollars / ton, and the CIF converted to Qingdao was 53 yuan / ton lower than that of the main coking coal in Jingtang Port of China.

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< p > 2, Qinhuangdao inventory continued to fall < /p >

< p > up to November 29th, the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao was 4 million 780 thousand tons, a slight decrease of 2.6% compared with last week. As of November 20th, China's key power plant coal inventory was 82 million 150 thousand tons (stock days 22 days); as of November 29th, from Newcastle port to Whampoa port, the 70 kiloton class shipping cost of Panama ship was slightly rebounded from 3.3% last week, and the 150 kiloton freight pport from HayPoint to Qingdao rebounded sharply 18%; Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou and Shanghai shipping fees continued to fall 0.8%/1.0% respectively; the coal throughput of Qinhuangdao Port dropped by 12.1% to 4 million 900 thousand tons.

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< p > < strong > [policy] < /strong > /p >

< p > November 27th, the general office of the State Council promulgated the "opinions on promoting the smooth operation of the coal industry". It proposed to curb the chaotic growth of coal production, effectively reduce the tax burden of coal enterprises, strengthen the management of coal import and export links, and improve the level of production and operation of coal enterprises.

If the government can increase the intensity of shutting down the coal mines and restrict the import of low-quality coal, we believe that this will be conducive to the long-term stable and healthy development of the domestic coal industry.

In November, the PMI index of China's manufacturing industry was 51.4, unchanged from October, indicating the steady growth of domestic macro-economy.

We believe that seasonal factors and contract negotiations at the end of the year will continue to drive up the price of power coal.

In terms of metallurgical coal, we believe that there is no marked improvement in downstream demand, and prices are expected to remain stable in the near future.

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P > < strong > < /strong > < /p >

< p > 2013, the growth rate of power generation has resumed growth. Due to the support of the policy of supporting growth, the real estate investment has been recovered, and the growth rate of electricity demand of industrial enterprises has improved significantly.

Coupled with the continued hot weather this summer, demand for electricity this year is significantly better than the same period last year.

Unlike last year, there was a noticeable change in the power generation structure in 2013: the growth rate of hydropower did not continue the trend of high growth last year. Since the volume of water consumption is not ideal, hydropower has started to grow negative year-on-year since July 2013, and 1~10 grew by only 3.12% over the same period last month, while the thermal power generation in the same period has recovered to nearly 7%.

In 2013 1~10, the thermal power generation accounted for 80.29%, an increase of 2 percentage points over the same period last year.

The average utilization hours of national thermal power equipment and equipment were basically the same as that of last year, while the average utilization hours of hydropower equipment decreased by 150 hours compared with the same period last year.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > coal imports < /a > continue to maintain high growth.

In the month of 2013 1~9, the total import volume of coal in China was 2.39 million tons (coal and lignite), an increase of 35 million tons or 17.6% compared with the same period last year. If the conversion to the whole year, that is, the demand for less than 200 million tons per year, about 40 million tons were occupied by the import market.

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This year, the competition in the industry is fierce. The leading enterprises of HUAWEI, China's representative of P, are competing against each other to gain more market share.

In the first three quarters of 2013, the average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal power coal dropped from 701 yuan / ton last year to 585 yuan / ton this year, or 19.85%.

The average price of coking coal dropped from 1396 yuan / ton last year to 1112 yuan / ton this year, or 25.6%.

In the first three quarters of 2013, the whole industry achieved operating income of 2 trillion and 360 billion yuan, down 1.36% compared with the same period last year, and realized a total profit of 150 billion 700 million yuan, down 38.7% from the same period last year.

About 1/4 of enterprises are in a state of loss.

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< p > national coal output continued negative growth for a single month, but the decline continued to narrow, and it began to be flat in September 2013.

When demand growth is not high, inventory and import are the main obstacles to curb domestic coal sales.

Some small coal mines continue to stop production because of price declines or safety rectification factors, and other big mines also reduce production.

In October 2013, Shanxi issued a major security overhaul, requiring all the construction and expansion of coal mines to suspend production and carry out a major safety rectification, which is expected to alleviate the release of short-term coal production capacity.

In addition, pportation has become an important factor in the competitiveness of coal mines.

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< p > coal production begins to slow down and import impact will gradually decrease.

From the beginning of 2012 to the end of the three quarter of 2013, because of the sharp slowdown in global coal demand, the international coal prices continued to decline, which had a great impact on the domestic coal market.

According to our calculations, China's coal imports increased by 82 million tons in 2013 and increased from 32 million tons to 3.2 million tons last year.

Therefore, the dispatching demand of domestic coal "West coal east pportation and North coal South pportation" is still at a low level.

We expect coal imports to slow sharply in 2014.

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< p > international demand is poorer. International coal price is still the main factor for the continued growth of imports.

In 2013 1~10, China's coal imports totaled 2.6 million tons, an increase of 17.3% over the same period last year.

But we expect that the growth rate of coal imports will slow sharply in 2014, mainly due to the substantial increase in the base and the weakening of overseas expansion after the coal price falls.

According to the single month data in October 2013, there have been signs of weakening imports. In October, the total import volume of coal in China reached 21 million 210 thousand tons, a record low this year, a decrease of 4 million 520 thousand tons, a decrease of 17.56%.

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< p > National Railway < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > Coal < /a > the volume of pport has picked up slightly, but the era of tight railway capacity is hard to reappear.

In 2013 1~10 months, the total volume of railway coal pportation in China was 17.09 million tons, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year.

The main port coal pported 4.89 million tons, an increase of 5.6% over the same period last year.

At the same time, the railway pportation volume of coal accounts for around 42~43% of the national freight volume, indicating that the railway capacity is not tight.

We believe that at present, the expansion of the Huangshuo railway, the Zhongnan railway, Lanxin railway and the Mongolia China Railway will form a complete coal pportation network, which will meet the demand for the new coal dispatching in the future.

Railway pport capacity will no longer be a bottleneck in the next 5~10 years.

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< p > the supply map of the domestic coal market in the future is that the new coal production capacity will be concentrated in the northwest and North China, radiating in East China, central China, Southern China and the southwest market.

In the eastern coastal area, the pattern of fierce competition between foreign coal and domestic coal is formed. Due to the cost of pportation, the market share of imported coal will rise in coastal areas.

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< p > inventory pressure has been reduced, and coal social inventory in the whole country has declined.

According to the latest statistics, by the end of 6 2013 (the three quarter data has not yet been released), the whole society stock of 2.98 million tons, 49 million tons lower than the beginning of the year.

By the end of October 2013, the number of days available for coal storage in key power plants reached 21 days, a decrease of about 7 days compared with the same period last year.

The pressure of inventory supply is significantly reduced.

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< p > < strong > [benefit stocks] < /strong > /p >

< p > Lu'an annulus, China Shenhua, orchid science and innovation, Hao Hua energy, Jingyuan coal and electricity.

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