With The Fourth Quarter, The Growth Rate Of China'S Processing Trade Imports Has Increased By A Small Margin.

On Saturday, China's General Administration of Customs released the import and export data in September, which showed unexpected market expectations. Lian Ping, chief economist of the bank, said that the main reason for the fall in September was that the political turmoil in the US "government debt ceiling dispute" overlay the unfavorable international monetary environment in September.

The repeated withdrawal of the QE from the US Federal Reserve has also increased the pressure on the passive appreciation of the renminbi, which is not conducive to the growth of China's exports.

< /p >

< p > customs data show that in September, China's total import and export value was US $356 billion 80 million, excluding exchange rate factors, with a growth rate of 3.3%.

Of which, exports amounted to 185 billion 640 million US dollars, the growth rate was significantly callback to -0.3%; the import of US $170 billion 440 million was stable at 7.4% compared to the same period last year, and the trade surplus was 15 billion 200 million US dollars.

< /p >

In the first three quarters of the year P, the total value of China's imports and exports was US $3 trillion and 60 billion, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports were US $1 trillion and 610 billion, an increase of 8% over the previous year, and imports of US $1 trillion and 450 billion, an increase of 7.3% over the same period last year. The trade surplus was US $169 billion 400 million and expanded by 14.4%.

< /p >

< p > Lian Ping believes that since the beginning of September, the political farce of the debate on the debt ceiling of the two parties in the United States has been staged again. Under this impact, the risk of uncertainty in American economic growth has increased significantly, and the global Morgan PMI, which reflects the global effective demand, has also experienced a temporary fall.

< /p >

Under the background of the deepening integration of global economy and finance, in the short term, the dispute over the "upper limit of government debt ceiling" has increased the uncertainty of global economic growth in P.

At the same time, the East Asian "export oriented" economies including China, Korea and Taiwan, China, reproduced the situation of collective export growth in September.

< /p >

< p > data show that in September Korea's exports fell by 1.5% compared with the same period last year. The export of Taiwan in China dropped to -7.01% compared with the same period last year.

< /p >

< p > Lian Ping also pointed out that the adverse disturbance of the Fed's "QE withdrawal from expectations" has significantly increased the passive appreciation pressure of RMB against multiple currencies in the short term. The sustained and rapid appreciation of the RMB is not conducive to the growth of China's exports.

< /p >

< p > September RMB revalued against the US dollar.

The central parity of RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 3.04% in September, setting the biggest monthly increase in RMB against the US dollar since 2013.

< /p >

< p > the trend of empirical data shows that the rise of RMB against the US dollar is ahead of the year-on-year growth rate of exports, and the trend of the two changes is basically the same.

In the short term, the rapid appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is not conducive to the steady growth of China's exports.

< /p >

< p > Lian Ping predicts that exports will grow steadily in October.

The main reason is that the political storm of the US debt ceiling will gradually disappear at the end of October. The impact of the short-term debt dispute on the growth of China's foreign trade will also gradually weaken. In addition, the traditional export markets in Europe and the United States have entered the traditional consumption and production and operation season since October, and demand orders from the European and American markets are expected to rise significantly.

< /p >

< p >, however, taking into account the "sharp increase in exports" which occurred in the fourth quarter of last year, the expected high base will restrict the rebound height of export growth in October to a certain extent.

< /p >

< p > for the steady growth of import growth, Lian Ping believes that it benefits from the steady growth of the "investment promotion" in the current situation, the adjustment of structure and the mode of promoting reform and growth. The dynamic growth of China's endogenous economic growth has obviously stabilized, and the growth rate of imports in September has basically continued the trend of steady uptrend in the early stage.

< /p >

< p >, therefore, Lian Ping predicts that the import will also maintain a steady growth in October.

Lian Ping pointed out that from the Keqiang index has been clearly rising for three consecutive months, and PMI's three month rebound trend shows that China's overall endogenous growth momentum has obviously stabilized, import demand is recovering, thus fundamentally promoting import growth.

< /p >

< p > at the same time, with the rapid growth of import growth of China's processing trade in the fourth quarter, the overall imports will also keep growing.

In addition, under the impetus of the "foreign trade rebalancing strategy", the future import of energy related resources, advanced technology and equipment, key components and domestic consumer goods will continue to grow.

< /p >