Zhou Zixun: Worries Behind China'S Economic Stabilization

< p > September 9th, the National Bureau of statistics released the latest price data.

In August, < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > CPI < /a > up 2.6%, up 0.5% compared with the same period; PPI dropped 1.6% compared with the same period last year, and the ratio rose 0.1%.

From the perspective of isolated data, CPI met the market expectations in August. Although the prices of fresh vegetables, pork, eggs, grains and other foods were the core reasons to promote the rise of CPI in August, there were also factors such as traffic and communications, prices of services remained stable or even downwards and so on. Coupled with the influence of the tail factors, CPI rose in a relatively limited way in August.

In August, the narrowing of PPI and the continued bottom rally could be regarded as a positive signal - the year-on-year decline narrowed for third consecutive months, while the ring ratio rose 5 months later, mainly because the commodities had reached a break even point and further pushed up their prices.

With the domestic and international economic situation further stabilized and the overall demand eased off, PPI will continue to rise and the decline will continue to narrow.

< /p >

< p > in fact, the August "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "trade > /a" data released by the General Administration of customs also confirmed the trend of China's economic development.

In August, exports increased by 7.2% over the same period last year, higher than 5.5% expected by the market. In August, imports increased by 7% over the previous year, lower than the 11.3% expected by the market, and the trade surplus in August was 28 billion 600 million US dollars, higher than the 20 billion US dollars expected by the market.

Analysts said imports and exports increased by more than 7% in August, especially in terms of export growth.

Whether it is the leading indicators of PMI or industrial consumption, domestic demand is gradually improving, and the import growth in the coming months may be relatively stable.

< /p >

< p > behind the stabilization of China's economy, there are also some hidden worries, which are reflected in the following aspects: first, the investment efficiency is doubtful.

Although the central government stressed that the new investment will focus on railway, environmental protection and other weak links, it will not take the old road of repeated construction.

However, the local government has a strong investment impulse. Can the central authorities approve the checkpoints to protect the effectiveness of new investment projects? Two, the property market bubble continues.

The central government has relaxed the regulation of real estate and has been steadily increasing in the way of steady investment.

Against this background, will the overheated first tier cities be overheated? Three, the risk of local bonds will rise.

Although the central government will open private sectors such as railways and energy to private enterprises, the pattern of government led investment is still hard to reverse.

Some of the infrastructure projects that the central government is pushing ahead will have long-term benefits for the economy and people's livelihood, but it will also increase short-term pressure on local debt and increase risks.

The four is the problem of excess capacity.

At present, China's manufacturing industry is shrinking.

At present, 22 industries in 24 industries have serious excess capacity.

The five is the high cost of logistics.

The high cost of logistics directly leads to the increase of the cost of manufacturing and raw materials and the rise of animal prices through industrial chains.

As a "lever" between production and consumption, only by balancing the logistics can we better promote consumption and improve people's livelihood. Therefore, the government should create a more relaxed environment for logistics development.

< /p >

< p > in view of this, China's < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > economy < /a > must develop a more open economic system and create micro economic vitality.

To achieve this idea, we must push forward market-oriented reform through decentralization of the market, and activate the Chinese economy under the pressure of pformation by marketization.

< /p >