Semir Costumes: Endogenous Growth From Extension To Products

< p > Huatai Securities recently released Semir's a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > dress < /a > Research Report, this year Semir brand recovery growth.

Since last year, there has been a lot of adjustment: short term measures: going to stock, closing down unprofitable stores, simplifying the work process and reducing investment in investment; long-term measures: from extension to product growth, adjusting product line, style line to cover more consumers, and extending the age from 16-25 to 16-30 years old.

Short term measures have been reflected this year, and long-term measures are cumulative increments.

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< p > Bala children's wear brand keeps the original growth track, and has obvious advantages in domestic brands.

Bara's retail income last year was 4 billion 500 million yuan, while the back brand was only about 1 billion yuan.

30% of the more than 3000 stores are in shopping centers and department stores, indicating that they have performed well in the new channel and have successfully broken through the street store outlets.

The next step is to create a more comprehensive product line and style line.

Originally Bala was 3-12 years old and was about to launch: the brand Mini Bara, the 0-3 year old baby dress, had been well prepared by the previous two years, 12-14 years old children's wear, Bala -junior, and Bala accessories brand, including Tong < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > shoes < /a > stationery, etc. at present, Bala children's shoes rank the top in the total sales volume of children's shoes, indicating that Bara also has space and status in this category.

At the same time, relying on good brand awareness and products will continue to enter the shopping mall and the electricity supplier market, ranking the top in the electricity supplier.

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< p > medium and high-end M & a business is a steady and continuous implementation process.

In addition to GXG acquisition, the company also has high-end Korean women's clothing, European men's wear, children's wear brand is also discussed in cooperation, GXG channel resources, contacts, operational experience can be shared.

From the perspective of industry development and company business scale, we believe that the scale of young casual wear and children's clothing has entered the stage of differentiation and refinement.

Although business pressure is not high in the short run, it is hard to expect a bigger performance in the future.

In the medium and long term, relying on the advantages of existing resources, multi brand is the main growth path of the company in the future. If the effect of merger and acquisition integration is ideal, it will be the highlight of the company's investment value.

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< p > for the GXG acquisition, maintain the previous view: the acquisition target has a real EPS contribution. If the more detailed disclosure of GXG in late stage exceeds the market expectation, it is also one of the driving factors of the company's share price.

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< p > the company's investment logic is mainly reflected in its performance improvement this year.

Thanks to the company's strong efforts to inventory and control fees, although the overall consumption is still in the doldrums, the company's performance is better than that of the same brand.

We expect medium-term revenue growth to be around 5% and earnings in the two quarter are expected to be positive (originally judged in the three quarter).

Profit improvement will mainly be reflected in gross margin and cost rate.

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< p > from the whole year: we should carefully consider consumption warming and replenishment. We expect annual revenue and profit to be 10%-15%.

It is prudent to expect that the GXG acquisition will be thickened by about 0.07 yuan this year (EPS is actually the most profitable season in Q4).

It is estimated that the EPS will be 1.30/1.54/1.84 yuan for 13-15 years (if thickening EPS is 1.37/1.88/2.24 yuan).

Maintain the company's "increase" rating.

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