Retail Industry Enters A Low Growth Stage

Since P 2012, the economic downturn has been obvious, and the growth rate of the consumer goods market has also dropped significantly. The rapid growth of retail sales without shops has further enhanced the influence on the physical stores.

In 2013, the anti-corruption and thrift continued to push forward, and the growth rate of the consumer goods market continued to remain low.

The decline of high-end consumption is particularly obvious. The growth rate of high gross margin commodity such as a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing "/a" and so on, and the growth rate of low gross margin commodity such as household appliances and gold jewelry are relatively high. The two party's rise and fall makes the retailer's gross margin level under greater pressure.

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< p > at present, the value of investment opportunities in retail stocks is greater than the value of growth opportunities. The overall rebound still faces fundamental constraints, and it needs time and market style to match.

It is suggested that a company that has breakthroughs in the selection mechanism, model, profit turning point and extension injection from bottom to top.

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< p > < strong > industry entered a low growth growth stage < /strong > < /p >

In 2013, the growth rate of consumer goods market continued to fall. < p >

The promotion of anti-corruption and frugality has a huge impact on high-end goods, gifts, shopping cards, high-end restaurants and large customers, and there is no indication that it will end in the short term, and it may continue for a long time.

Although part of the purchasing power has shifted from the international front line to the international second-line and domestic front-line brands, the latter is only a small decline or a small increase, which is not enough to offset the growth rate brought down by the former.

In addition, the decline of high-end consumption is particularly obvious. The growth rate of high gross margin commodity such as clothing is declining, and the growth rate of low gross margin commodities such as household appliances and gold jewelry is relatively high. The two may take a big pressure on the gross margin of retailers.

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< p > according to the statistics of China's retail development, the US Stores magazine and the China Business Information Center, in 2012, China's top 100 retail enterprises realized sales of US $295 billion 440 million, an increase of 20.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 2.6 percentage points slower than that of the same period. Compared with the data of China's top 100 enterprises, the sales volume of us top 100 retailers in the 12 years was 1 trillion and 711 billion 790 million US dollars, and the United States was 5.8 times that of China.

In 2011, the sales volume of the top 100 retailers in the US and China were 245 billion 790 million US dollars and 1 trillion and 614 billion 320 million US dollars respectively, and the US was 6.6 times that of China.

Although the gap in absolute terms is still relatively large, China's retail leaders are constantly hitting the limits of their development in a faster way.

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< p > in addition, the threshold for China's top 100 retail sales has increased year by year, and the sales volume of the last enterprise has reached 3 billion 860 million yuan, an increase of 860 million yuan compared with 2011, an increase of 28.7%.

Last year, the top 100 U.S. sales reached $3 billion 340 million, an increase of $510 million over 2011, an increase of 17.8% over the same period last year.

The threshold of China's entry to the top 100 has increased from 1 billion 960 million yuan in 2007 to 3 billion 860 million yuan, an increase of 1 billion 900 million yuan. This shows that the threshold of China's entry into the 100 retail business is increasing, and its scale is expanding and its strength is constantly improving.

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< p > we think that the whole channel is the future of retailing, and the huge space on the line has not been ignored by any traditional retailer.

Since the new forms and patterns of electricity suppliers and shopping centers have already been a challenge to the existing retail business, the trend of change has created a forced traditional business to sort out its own supply chain system and speed up the opportunity to flatten sales channels.

In the future of the development of electricity providers and the reduction of the proportion of public consumption, the rational consumption for the masses will become the mainstream. The approaching of prices under the online and offline prices is also the trend of the times. In this sense, in the future, enterprises in the top 100 retail enterprises will appear more and more in the future. The moisture of various consumer data will be squeezed out, which will increasingly reflect the substantial consumption demand of the mainstream social strata. Under such a new situation, the retail industry will also moderate and benign into the next stage of growth.

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< p > < strong > May, there is no big surprise in the data < /strong > < /p >

< p > in the first 5 months of 2013, the total volume of social zero increased by 12.6% year-on-year, and the rate of increase was 0.9 percentage points lower than that in the same period in 2012. However, the total growth rate of social zero increased by 0.1 percentage points over the first four months, continuing the low two digit growth rate since the beginning of this year.

The growth rate in the 3-5 months is 12.6%, 12.8% and 12.9%, respectively. Although the data have been increasing month by month, there is not much surprise.

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< p > micro level, from the latest data released, the retail sales of 50 key large retail enterprises in May increased by 10.6% over the same period last year, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous month, which has increased 0.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

According to the category, the consumption of gold and jewellery in April continued. Following the growth rate of 105.1%, the retail sales in May increased by 29.3% compared with the same period last year, and the pulling effect on the overall sales growth was still larger.

Other foods such as food, the growth rate was 12.2%, cosmetics and daily necessities increased by 10.6% and 9.8% in a single month, the three major categories of sales are relatively stable.

Sales of clothing increased faster, but the growth rate of retail sales was relatively low, only 3%. The reason was that after the summer, businesses increased sales through discount sales, and at the same time sacrificed sales.

Home appliances sales grew 3.2% year-on-year, down 10 percentage points from last month.

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< p > gold consumption is over. The retail industry is going to be in the off-season in summer. The sales promotion activities of the electric business in June are also developing. The impact on the physical retail will still be greater. In addition, in the same period of low base effect, we believe that the sales revenue of the macro and micro aspects will remain low two digit growth from 6 to August.

At the same time, traditional retailers will not stop sales promotion in single season, so the trend of gross profit margin is still worth paying attention to.

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< p > < strong > the linkage between the plate and the market is obviously < /strong > < /p >.

< p > May 2013 to now, the retail trade sector has risen 0.95% overall, and has maintained a consistent trend with the general market. No matter in May or after June, they all outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Shenzhen 300 and Shenzhen stock index 2.36, 4.36 and 2.95 percentage points respectively.

In the sub sectors, the trade sector showed better elasticity, or 2.09%, while the traditional department stores also rose slightly, or 0.71%, indicating that the market is still cautious and wait-and-see about whether the sales data of the terminal can be substantially improved, thus affecting the valuation of the plate.

After a slight rise in the current round, the current commercial trade corresponds to an absolute PE of 14 times in 2013 and a relative valuation of 1.1 times, still below the historical average.

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< p > > we believe that the industry association data show that the overall consumption is stable, the terminal store research confirms the consumption stability judgment; retail enterprises through the combination of formats and category adjustment to raise gross margin, control the total cost and reduce the cost rate; at the same time superimposing the low sales and profit base of last year, we think that the profit level of the retail industry in the 13 years will be picked up gradually after the combined effect of gradual consumption stabilization, net interest rate raising and the same low base three. The valuation level will also continue to follow the market linkage. In the case of moderate improvement in consumer data and continuous improvement of market confidence, it may create more relative returns, and we also pay more attention to individual stock opportunities.

In terms of investment strategy, we still focus on four recommendation logic: first, Nanjing business with strong expectation of capital operation and turning point of operation; secondly, retailers with solid fundamentals and relatively low valuations, recommend Chongqing department stores, Ginza shares, Hefei department stores and Eurasia Group; three, they are concerned about the unique business mode and the diversified investment themes of the Shanghai India stock exchange and the Great East.

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