Economic Crisis Brought About By "Zhejiang Province"

It will be better to turn the boat around. Zhejiang's economy has been famous for the development of small enterprises for many years. Now, the majority of small and medium-sized enterprises, accounting for 99% of the total number of industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province, are in the development node. The appreciation of RMB, the tightening of monetary policy, the rise of cost, the reduction of export tax rebate rate and the slowdown of the world's major economies have resulted in the superposition of various adverse factors. Large enterprise groups are still facing difficulties, let alone small and medium-sized enterprises. Although there is no obvious evidence that Zhejiang's economy will collapse, the turning point has already appeared. At a critical juncture, it has become a major event to improve the difficult living conditions of 870000 small and medium-sized industrial enterprises in the province. "The operating and living conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises are worrying" -- Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of small and medium-sized enterprises made this description in the materials submitted to the national development and Reform Commission, the provincial Party committee and the provincial government. In fact, the problem of small enterprises' survival and financing has been highly valued by the state. From July 6 to 8, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, visited Wenzhou, Hangzhou and other places, inspected some light and textile, electromechanical and high-tech enterprises, and presided over a symposium on economic situation, focusing on in-depth research on enterprise development and reform, domestic and foreign market environment and other issues. On July 7, Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission also held a forum on economic operation situation in the first half of the year in Wenzhou to collect materials for the "first half economic situation analysis meeting" held by the national development and Reform Commission on July 12. Previously, the CBRC disclosed that the CBRC is also organizing five or six working groups to investigate the survival status of small enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong. We also investigate whether small enterprises are faced with the situation of "loan appreciation, key financing channels, and difficulties faced by small enterprises under the condition of" RMB appreciation, key financing channels, and whether they are faced with the situation of small enterprises' appreciation, the degree of difficulty in financing, and whether small enterprises are faced with difficulties in financing. Is it necessary to make some fine adjustments to macro policies without changing the basic direction? Will millions of small and medium-sized enterprises in Zhejiang face a big transformation? What is the new trend of private capital? Zhejiang's real dilemma can not represent the whole country, but it is quite typical. 1. "Leap" warns "leap forward". The leader of China's sewing machine industry, a big tax payer in Taizhou City, and a pioneering model of private enterprises in Zhejiang Province, is now facing the situation of private borrowing and debt forcing. In the field of sewing machines, "leap" covers almost all types of products. Now it has more than 300 varieties in 31 major series, with an annual output of 2 million sets of various sewing machines. Among them, the ultra-high speed overlock sewing machine and stretch sewing machine account for 50% of the world's total output. However, due to the rapid appreciation of the RMB in 2007 and the increasingly bad overseas trade environment, the total export volume of Feiyue group from January to April this year was only 18.48 million US dollars, which was 44% lower than that of 33 million US dollars in the same period of last year. The export business of this export-oriented production enterprise has been severely damaged by the severe shrinkage of overseas market. As the banks tightened their credit, the leading enterprise had to borrow money from the private sector at high interest rates for turnover, but it was unable to repay it. Small enterprises with small scale and production capacity are facing survival crisis. In the first quarter of this year, the total output of Taizhou sewing equipment enterprises above designated size was 1015600 units, a decrease of 15.3% compared with the same period of last year. The output value and benefit also declined significantly. Many enterprises had to stop production or even close down. Shengzhou, since 2000, the global necktie processing center has been transferred from South Korea to the city, and Korean enterprises have also come in droves. At its peak, the exports of more than 30 Korean tie manufacturers settled in the region exceeded 100 million US dollars a year. Now, with the popularity of high-end looms and advanced technologies in Shengzhou, brilliant Korean enterprises have gradually lost their luster, and most of them are considering withdrawing from Shengzhou. However, the withdrawal of Korean enterprises did not reduce the competitive pressure on local tie manufacturers. In May this year, Shengzhou tie industry association once called on all tie manufacturers to raise the price by $0.1, only a few enterprises responded. And more small enterprises continue to "break the head" to compete for foreign trade orders at low prices, and the price alliance exists in name only. In Wenzhou, about 20% of the manufacturing enterprises have stopped production or half stopped production. Take the glasses manufacturing industry as an example. The average export price of sunglasses in the first quarter of this year was only US $0.7713 per pair. Most enterprises have been in a situation of unprofitable and barely maintaining. With the same fate, there is the low-voltage electrical appliance industry in Liushi, Wenzhou, whose gross profit in the first half of this year is only 5%, and the net profit is out of the question. However, the biggest hit is still the textile and clothing industry in Zhejiang. The reporter understands that the export-oriented industries in Zhejiang Province mainly include textile, clothing, chemical industry, electronic machinery manufacturing, etc., among which, the export dependence of textile and garment industry is about 60%, and the added value is low, and the price is the main means of competition. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will greatly weaken the price competitiveness of Zhejiang textile and garment products in the international market. According to the calculation, the profit rate of the textile industry and the cotton industry will fall by 19.6% and 3.2% respectively. If the RMB rises by 3%, the average profit level of Zhejiang textile and garment industry may be flattened. "I don't dare to sign a bill. The appreciation of RMB is too fast. It's OK not to do this business. If you do it, you will lose. It's better not to do it! " Shaoxing a textile business owner told reporters. "Even though I've cut production capacity by a third, I'm still eating my money.". I will not shut down the factory until I have to, but I hope to find a home as soon as possible, even at a very low price. " Hangzhou a production of foreign trade clothing business owners said to reporters. It is not only small and medium-sized enterprises, but also large-scale enterprises in Zhejiang Province. According to the "analysis of the industrial and trade economic situation in Zhejiang Province in the first quarter" by Zhejiang Economic and Trade Commission, from January to February this year, the growth rate of industrial added value of Enterprises above Designated Size in Zhejiang Province was 2.8 percentage points lower than the national average level, ranking 25th; the profit growth rate was 9.8 percentage points lower than the national average level, and the comprehensive index of industrial economic benefits continued to be lower than the national average level. The total amount of loss was more than RMB 3.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of RMB 1.64 billion. The most prominent trend is in the textile and petrochemical industries, such as the petroleum and petrochemical industries. Under the shock of crude oil price, the profits of chemical fiber manufacturing industry from January to February increased by 157% to - 8.5% from the same period last year. In the manufacturing industry of communication equipment, computer and other electronic equipment, the growth rate of main business income and export delivery value from January to February decreased by 38.2% and 33.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. Leading enterprises in some industries, such as Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., suffered a huge loss of 1.27 billion yuan from January to February, while the output value of Hangzhou Motorola, Toshiba mobile and Toshiba information decreased by 64.16%, 39.9% and 40.8% respectively. The appreciation of RMB, the tightening of monetary policy, the rise of cost, the reduction of export tax rebate rate and the slowdown of the growth rate of the world's major economies have made Zhejiang enterprises face a severe survival situation in 2008. If the total number of workers in panzhou increased from more than 4 million yuan to more than 1.8 million yuan per ton, the total labor cost of one enterprise would increase by more than 14 million yuan per ton The annual profit is 27%; 45 enterprises have closed down in Wenling City; there are 1486 small and medium-sized enterprises in Wenzhou, accounting for 6.3%. There were more than 3000 enterprises in the fastener industry three years ago, and more than 2000 enterprises still exist In this changing situation, it is still unknown how many Zhejiang enterprises will fall down like dominoes. 2. Bewilderment of "export machine"; export 800 million shirts to exchange for a Boeing plane; the price of an electric car is only the price of a shoe abroad; a 6-meter YKK zipper can buy a 1000 meter zipper made in Zhejiang Province; the domestic price of Barbie dolls is 329 yuan, while the processing fee is only 4 yuan These well-known data not only show the low price strategy of Zhejiang's export products, but also present another structural risk of Zhejiang foreign trade enterprises, that is, "focusing on export sales, ignoring domestic sales", and the long-term obvious imbalance of import and export structure. This is in sharp contrast to the import and export structure of Jiangsu Province, which is divided into two parts. "Why are the foreign trade enterprises in Jiangsu better than those in Zhejiang? The reason is that Jiangsu has two legs in import and export, and the import and export are equally divided. And in the rapid appreciation of the RMB, the impact on exports is the most severe The only way for the reporter to change is that they can't make a change in a short period of time, but they can't do it in a short time. At the same time, Zhejiang's foreign trade structure, which pays more attention to export than domestic sales, has greatly affected Zhejiang's banking industry. "For example, suppose that Jiangsu branch can only achieve half of the international settlement business volume of Zhejiang branch, but its profit can be equivalent to that of Zhejiang branch. This is the advantage of "taking everything" at both ends of import and export. " Zhejiang branch of a state-owned bank said to reporters. "The dependence of Zhejiang's industrial economy on foreign countries ranks first in China. Over the years, 30% of the industrial economic growth has come from exports. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of foreign trade has been very low Zhejiang Province small and medium-sized enterprise bureau personage thinks so. According to the data provided by the Bureau of small and medium-sized enterprises of Zhejiang Province, from January to April this year, the total delivery value of export products of small and medium-sized enterprises in the whole province reached 252.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, a decrease of 10.67 percentage points over the same period of last year, and the lowest point in recent years. If we exclude the factor of product cost increase, the real export growth is only about 8%. In April, the delivery value of export products of Enterprises above Designated Size reached 81.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 11.2%. The growth rate was the lowest in the same month since 1998 (the previous years were about 30%). Not only Taizhou and Wenzhou, but also cities in Zhejiang have not escaped the fate of production decline. According to the statistics of Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of statistics, from January to February this year, the textile industry, textile clothing, shoes and hats manufacturing industry, communication equipment computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, which accounted for 41.1% of Hangzhou's export volume, respectively, increased by 14.2%, 8.5% and - 33.2% over the same period of last year, and the growth rate dropped by 9.4%, 13.8% and 59.0% year-on-year Points, 4.0, 9.7 and 51.4 percentage points lower than the average growth rate of the whole city. "From the perspective of the trend of foreign trade export, due to the increasing uncertainties in the world economy, it is difficult to predict the RMB exchange rate, and some enterprises dare not accept orders for more than two months. Although the European Union has abolished the textile quota limit this year, the textile products of our province have not been exported in large volume. At this spring's Canton Fair, some orders have been sent to Vietnam, Cambodia and other neighboring countries. In view of this, foreign trade exports are likely to show a further downward trend. " Recently, people from the Bureau of small and medium-sized enterprises of Zhejiang Province went to Taizhou, Wenzhou and other places to investigate the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, analyzed more than 10 major industries and dozens of key enterprises, and finally completed the paper "the current living environment of small and medium-sized enterprises needs to be improved" and submitted to the provincial Party committee and provincial government. Those who participated in the survey are quite worried about whether the current situation of small and medium-sized enterprises in Zhejiang will cause chain reaction at different levels. The first is the process of industrialization. Small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than 80% of the province's GDP, accounting for more than 80% of the total number of industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province. In 2007, the total industrial output value of small and medium-sized industrial enterprises in the province was 4097 billion yuan, and the tax was 140.1 billion yuan, accounting for 88.5% and 89.5% of all industrial enterprises respectively. But now a large number of small enterprises shut down and turn around, which will inevitably lead to the fracture of the industrial chain and the decline of growth sources. According to the data of the first quarter, Zhejiang's GDP was 460.2 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% over the same period of last year, but the growth rate was 2.8% lower than that of the same period last year. The second is the realization of employment goal. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the main channel for employment. At present, 14.123 million employees are employed, accounting for 95.4% of the total. In the past five years, small and medium-sized enterprises have absorbed more than 500000 urban laid-off workers and rural surplus labor force. However, due to the poor economic benefits and the increase in enterprise layoffs this year, it is difficult to provide sufficient jobs for the society, and the prospect of achieving this year's employment goal is dim. The third is the growth of urban and rural residents' income. In addition, due to the fact that the per capita income of small and medium-sized enterprises in the whole province is affected by inflation in the first quarter, the per capita income of small and medium-sized enterprises should be reduced