November 30, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures contract]5 no spot business buying power

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20672 yuan / ton; 229 level 19804 yuan / ton; 328 level 18971 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18286 yuan / ton.

domestic

Product: polyester staple fiber 10370 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14390 yuan / ton; C32S price 25750 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 29 day, the price of domestic cotton spot market continues to rise more because of the pull of the purchase and storage price, but the sales of downstream yarns are still sluggish, and the market consumption is obviously insufficient.

At present, the rise of cotton price lacks the support of the internal mechanism of the market, and the stability and sustainability of its rising trend are hardly optimistic.

3. imported cotton: in November 29th, the price of China's main cotton imports rose generally, and all varieties increased by 0.25 cents.

With the majority of cotton qualified domestic quality entering the reserve bank, cotton mills are constantly adjusting their quotations to explore the bottom line of textile mills in order to maintain the right price for production and purchase.

4. the purchase and storage of new cotton: as of November 29th, the total annual turnover of cotton temporary storage and storage in 2012 was 3393950 tons, of which 2920110 tons were listed on the list (1058590 tons in the mainland and 1861520 tons in Xinjiang).

5.ICE cotton: in November 29th, the commodity market generally strengthened to create a good atmosphere for ICE cotton. In March, the contract opened up, showing strong strength, plus the stable export data of USDA cotton, attracting the purchase of the market, and cotton prices hit the highest level in 5 weeks.

The data showed that in the week up to November 23rd, the volume of American cotton exports had reached 73 thousand and 800 tons, more than 50 thousand tons in the fourth week.

Summary:

For Zheng cotton in May, the demand for the market after the storage period is still weak, and when the price of Zhengzhou cotton is higher than the social circulation cotton price, the cotton buying enterprise has no power to choose the futures purchase channel, which determines the futures price has lost the buying power from the spot enterprises, and the driving force is insufficient.

On the operation, the January contract should give full attention to the impact brought by the reduction of high-grade cotton resources in the social circulation sector, focusing on the idea of doing more in the bargain market, but we should focus on the pre high pressure.

May contract flexible operation, pay attention to the support below 19000 yuan / ton.

[one German futures] approaching the bottom, Zheng cotton is expected to rebound.

Thursday CF1305 low concussion, CF1305 closed more than 4.2 million hands, holdings increased slightly.

CF1305 closed at 19095 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton, increased 2228 positions; in November 29th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 83.82 cents / pound, fell 0.07 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13493 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14454 yuan / ton.

According to Dow Jones New York November 29th, cotton futures rose to a five week high on Thursday, as the US Department of agriculture (USDA) report showed that the US sold more than 250 thousand bales of cotton for the fourth consecutive week.

The Intercontinental Exchange ICE March cotton futures rose 1% or 0.72 cents to 73.35 cents.

In November 29th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 11020 tons, 960 tons less than the previous trading day, the order quantity reduced by 680 tons, and the total order 38420 tons.

On the 29 day, the contract was opened up, with wide shocks within the day.

On the basic level, lint prices are still rising steadily. The supply of cotton in the market is still tight, but the enthusiasm of textile enterprises is not high. Most of them hope that the state will throw low cotton stores instead of buying large quantities of cotton with high market prices, and the market will be relatively stable in the near future.

Thursday

Continue to callback, approaching the bottom area of the early shocks, but the technical indicators are tight, investors can intervene less than 19050 below.

Today's operation suggests that 19050 of the following interventions are small, multi single, 18950 stop loss, and the CF1305 reference price range is 19000-19300.

[MEIKO futures] external market rises, US cotton exports decrease, Zheng cotton arbitrage continues to hold

Overnight, on the 29 day, the commodity market generally strengthened to create a good atmosphere for the ICE cotton. The opening of the contract in March showed a strong trend. In addition, the USDA US cotton export data was stable, attracting the purchase of the market, and cotton prices hit the highest level in 5 weeks.

The data showed that in the week up to November 23rd, the volume of American cotton exports had reached 73 thousand and 800 tons, more than 50 thousand tons in the fourth week.

Although the cotton price has broken through the short-term resistance of 73.15 cents, the fall of the late market will give more vigilance to many.

Industry news last night, the US Department of agriculture (2012.11.16-22) export report.

In the week of 2012/13, the net contracted volume of US cotton exports was 68 thousand and 100 tons, 25% less than the previous week, 6% higher than the average value of the previous four weeks, and the main buyer was China (18 thousand and 900 tons).

The export volume of us upland cotton exports is 28 thousand and 800 tons, a decrease of 4% over the previous week, an increase of 9% over the previous 4 weeks and is mainly shipped to China (15 thousand and 400 tons).

In the international market, 29 days, the price of China's main cotton imports rose generally, and all varieties rose 0.25 cents.

With the majority of cotton qualified domestic quality entering the reserve bank, cotton mills are constantly adjusting their quotations to explore the bottom line of textile mills in order to maintain the right price for production and purchase.

On the whole, the market does not have a basis for rising, and cotton prices will drop once they are divorced from actual demand.

The domestic market, 29, the domestic cotton spot market prices continue to rise more because of the purchase and storage price pull, but the downstream yarn sales are still sluggish, the market consumption is obviously insufficient, in the unprofitable reality, some textile enterprises have limited production.

At present, the rise of cotton price lacks the support of the internal mechanism of the market, and the stability and sustainability of its rising trend are hardly optimistic.

State Reserve dynamics, 28 days of national cotton temporary storage and storage of 47980 tons, as of the same day, the cumulative turnover of 3354220 tons, the total turnover of 2880380 tons (mainland paction 1034860 tons, 1845520 tons in Xinjiang), the backbone of the company's major contracts totaled 473840 tons.

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Spot quotation, November 29th, the US C/A cotton 88.85 (cents / pound), RMB trade port delivery price 15013 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax); Australia cotton 93.85, RMB trade port delivery price 15649 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 91.85, RMB trade port delivery price 15390 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 84.85, RMB trade port delivery price 14529 yuan / ton; India cotton 83.85, RMB trade port delivery price 14411 yuan / ton.

In November 29th, CNCotton A rose 19804 yuan / ton, 17 yuan; CNCotton B 18971 yuan, up 16 yuan.

Market analysis, the supply of lint spot market has further shrunk, coupled with the increase in enquiry volume of textile enterprises, the quotation has been slightly upward trend, indirectly boosting the matching market.

However, sales of downstream yarns are still weak, and cotton prices will also gradually encounter resistance when the quota of foreign cotton quotas is expected to rise.

Zheng pan in recent months

Boost the pressure on integer juncture; 05 contract continued weak support 18950.