Cotton Futures Futures Market Outlook

Storage in 1.2012 years policy

At present, the dumping and storage has ended and the import quotas have been suspended. The purchase price of 20400 yuan / ton and the unlimited storage method support the cotton price. According to the prediction of China Cotton Association, the output of cotton in China will reach 6 million 950 thousand tons in 2012. If the cotton accounts for 60% of the total grade four or more, the total amount of cotton that meets the storage standard is 4 million 170 thousand tons. According to the current storage capacity and the storage and storage standard, it can be roughly estimated according to 2/3, and the total amount of cotton temporary storage in 2012 is estimated to be 2 million 500 thousand tons.

However, from the reality of storage and purchase, the total amount of storage will also be raised. As of October 29th, the cotton reserves have reached 1 million 630 thousand tons. In the latter part, there are nearly 5 months. According to the calculation of 15 thousand tons per day, the total amount of temporary storage and storage of 2012 cotton will reach 3 million tons.

From the purchase price of seed cotton, as of October 15th, the average price of seed cotton was 8.66 yuan / kg, higher than last year's 8.47 yuan / kg, lint 19401 yuan / ton, higher than last year's 18808 yuan. The purchase and storage played a good stabilizing role in cotton prices. In the case of weak demand, the purchasing and storage period played a significant role in enhancing the price. After next March, the middle and high grade cotton will be significantly reduced in the market, and the contract will be stronger gradually.

　 2. temporary dumping

At the end of September, 494 thousand tons of cotton for the national temporary rotation had ended, but in the cotton teleconference conference held in October 9th, Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the NDRC, said it would operate according to the market. Spin Demand situation and timely research on cotton storage.

Although the NDRC has made a report on the study of the temporary storage of cotton after the acquisition and storage, it does not exclude that the high cost of the cotton industry has led to the continued downtrend in the whole industry situation or the pressure on the storage and storage capacity of the country. The state continued to sell the textile enterprises to the textile enterprises at a low price for a short time. This will reduce the demand for foreign cotton for the spinning enterprises, and the United States and cotton will also be put down by the company.

Market outlook

The global economic growth is sluggish, and the economic prospects of the developed economies and emerging economies such as Europe and America are not optimistic. The domestic textile industry is facing greater business pressure, and the enthusiasm for increasing raw material inventory is not high. The rapid growth of foreign cotton yarn imports continues to hedge domestic cotton consumption. This year's global and China's overall cotton supply surplus pattern, cotton price center shifted downward to long-term trend.

Domestic cotton, at present, picking speed is accelerating, supply pressure is increasing, cotton inventory consumption ratio is more than 100%, but cotton import quota is ceased to be released this year, short term cotton is difficult to directly impact on domestic cotton market, and has the support of storage and storage. The date has lasted until March 2013. At present, the storage capacity has reached 1 million 630 thousand tons, and there are nearly 5 months later. According to 15 thousand tons per day, the total amount of temporary storage and storage of 2012 cotton will reach 3 million tons.

Yes futures The lifting effect of price will be enhanced significantly. However, affected by weak demand, there will be no big fluctuations and short term interval shocks are the main ones. After next March, the middle and high grade cotton will be significantly reduced in the market, and the contract will be stronger gradually.