07 Years Of US Foreign Trade And Sino US Trade

In 2007, when the US economy maintained a steady growth in the first three quarters, the subprime mortgage crisis began in the three quarter. The fourth quarter's economic growth slowed to 0.6%. Although in 2008, at the end of 2008, the United States finally approved the tax rebate plan of about 150 billion US dollars to stimulate the economy, but it should be held in June as early as June. From the development of 2008, the public opinion tends to believe that the United States has entered a new round of economic recession or at least the cycle of economic growth.

According to the statistics released by the economic analysis Bureau of the US Department of Commerce in February 28, 2008, the gross domestic product of the United States in 2007 reached 138438 billion US dollars, compared with the constant US dollar in 2000, an increase of 2.2% over the same period last year.

Less than 2.9% in 2006.

The annual inflation index was 2.7%, down from 3.3% in 06.

The 07 quarter of the four quarter was mainly due to private investment and reduced investment in fixed assets related to housing and import decline. Gross domestic product decreased from 4.9% in the three quarter to 0.6%, while exports increased by 4.8% during the same period, and imports dropped by 1.9%.

Statistics released by the US in March 11, 2008 showed that the overall trade deficit between the United States and goods and services in January 2008 was 58 billion 200 million US dollars, with a slight increase in the annulus ratio.

However, compared with the average monthly deficit of $63 billion 210 million and $59 billion 40 million in 2006 and 2007, the trend is decreasing.

The main reason is that export growth at the same period is much higher than that of imports.

The view is that, with the recession in the US economy, imports will likely decline further.

1. The import and export trade and characteristics of the United States in 2007. In 2007, the total import and export volume of US goods and services was 3 trillion and 965 billion 230 million US dollars, up 8.64% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports amounted to 16284 billion US dollars, an increase of US $182 billion 700 million, an increase of 12.6% compared with 06 years, an increase of $23369 billion, an increase of 132 billion 600 million US dollars, an increase of 6%, an adverse difference of 708 billion 500 million dollars, a decrease of 50 billion dollars compared with the 758 billion 500 million dollars in 06 years, and a decline in the proportion of GDP from the 2006 to the "50 billion".

From the perspective of trade in goods, the total export volume was 11492 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.3% over the same period last year, an import of 19646 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.54%, a trade deficit of 815 billion 400 million US dollars, a decrease of 2.7% over the same period last year.

From the perspective of trade in services, the United States continues to maintain the status of big exporters and large surplus countries in service trade. In 2007, the total import and export volume reached 851 billion 400 million US dollars, an increase of 11.2%, of which exports were US $479 billion 200 million, an increase of 13.4% over the same period last year, and imports of US $372 billion 300 million, up 8.6% over the same period last year. The surplus was US $106 billion 900 million, up 34% over the same period (see Table 1).

The main products of the largest import decline were: railway locomotives, vehicles and their parts (eighty-sixth chapters) decreased by 58.7%; chemical fertilizers decreased by 58.2%; other base metals, cermets and their products decreased by 57.3%; grain decreased by 43.4%; special woven fabrics (fifty-eighth chapters) decreased by 37.1%; footwear products (sixty-fourth chapters) decreased by 33.7%; and cotton fell by 28.8%.

(two) analysis of the characteristics of import and export commodities. The above data can be found that Sino US trade in 2007 has the following characteristics: 1. China's exports to the US are dominated by mechanical and electrical products and textiles, clothing, toys, furniture, shoes and bags.

Among them, exports of machinery, electrical equipment and their accessories (84 and 85 chapters) amounted to US $140 billion 770 million, accounting for 43.8% of China's total exports to the United States. If we add cars and spare parts (87 chapters) and optical and medical instruments (90 chapters), we will achieve 152 billion 420 million US dollars, accounting for 47.4% of the total.

In addition, the export volume of textile and clothing products (the 50-63 chapter) was US $31 billion 190 million (an increase of 18% over the same period), accounting for 9.7% of the total.

Toys accounted for 8.1%, furniture 6.3%, footwear 4.4%.

2, although there are no major changes in the overall pattern of our exports, there has been a slow growth in some of the traditional labour intensive commodities.

For example, the export growth of furniture and footwear products is below 5%, lower than the average growth rate of 11.7%, so these products have declined in proportion to my exports to the United States compared with 06 years.

On the other hand, the toy has achieved a 25% growth rate under the influence of product recall, and the textile and clothing products have also maintained a healthy and steady growth trend. It has not been shown that the bilateral textile and garment agreement between China and the United States is about to expire in 08 years.

It is noteworthy that the export of vehicle parts and steel products (the seventy-third chapter) continued to be strong, while steel (seventy-second chapters) showed a slight negative growth.

3, the share of some of my commodities in American imports has increased.

As the total volume of exports continues to grow, the share of our products in the US's share of imports has gradually increased, especially for some large export commodities, which occupy a pivotal position in the US market.

According to the amount, in 2007, I ranked the first commodity in the United States (the 2 customs codes), including motor, electrical, audio-visual equipment and accessories, accounting for 30.8% of the total imports of the United States, 25.6% of the reactors, boilers, mechanical appliances and parts, 31.4% of textile and clothing, 49.7% of furniture, toys and footwear products almost monopolized the US import market, and the shares reached 84.1% and 72.8% respectively.

Among them, the market share of motor, textile, clothing and toys increased by 3-4 points compared with the same period last year.

Therefore, these products are more vulnerable to the attention of the industry in the United States, and are the key objectives of various trade remedy measures.

The relevant departments and business associations should pay close attention to it, strengthen coordination, further optimize the export structure of these products, and avoid the low price competition of a few enterprises, which will affect the export of the whole industry to the US.

4, the US export to China still maintained a relatively fast growth rate, but fluctuated greatly throughout the year.

In the 12 months of 2007, the US exports to China decreased in 1, 4, 7 and September, and the decline in 1, 4, 7 and three months reached two figures.

However, in 3, 8 and December, the increase of ring must be close to or more than 20%.

Even if seasonal factors are excluded, the annual fluctuation is also very obvious.

Compared with the year-on-year decline in 2006, except for the decrease in July, other months maintained a growth rate of over 10%, especially in June and September, with an increase of over 30%.

The proportion of exports to China's total exports to the US basically fluctuated between 5.3-5.9%, but rose sharply to 6.8% in December.

From the quarterly data analysis, US exports to China showed year-on-year growth in the 2 quarter and the 4 quarter.

5, the US exports to China are still dominated by mechanical and electrical products, while agricultural products, steel, plastics and wood pulp have all seen rapid growth.

The top three categories of commodities exported to the United States belong to electromechanical products, and the total amount of these three items is 26 billion 720 million US dollars, accounting for 41% of total exports to China.

In addition, exports of precision instruments and equipment amounted to US $3 billion 310 million, and exports of motor vehicles and components were US $1 billion 970 million.

The total exports of base metals and their products (Chapter 72-83) amounted to US $7 billion 530 million, accounting for 11.5% of China's total exports, of which the export of steel, copper and its products exceeded US $2 billion, an obvious increase.

Plastic and its products export $3 billion 600 million, wood and paper (pulp) (forty-fourth, forty-seventh chapters) exports $2 billion 630 million.

Among the major agricultural products, oil seeds, nuts, industrial or medicinal plants, feed (twelfth chapters) exported 4 billion 180 million US dollars, and cotton exported to US $1 billion 480 million. These accounts for 78.8% of the total US exports to China.

6, the growth of China US trade deficit continued to slow down.

From the whole year of 2007, China is still the largest source of deficit in the US foreign trade with us $256 billion 270 million.

The absolute deficit increased by US $23 billion 700 million over the $232 billion 550 million in 2006.

However, the year-on-year growth rate decreased from 30.7% in 2004 to 24.5% in 2006, and then decreased to 10.2% in 15.3%, showing a decreasing trend year by year.

It shows that the policy of adjusting the export industrial structure and encouraging imports gradually shows its effect.