Monthly Report On Textile And Garment Industry

about

The clothing sector is still a stock market in September.

From the end of August, this EPS theory began to waver, and the sector continued to adjust. On the one hand, the capital market must face the real market environment, and on the other hand, the listed companies' reports are not satisfactory.

Investment suggestion

The export and domestic sales data in July showed that the demand was not strong at home and abroad: the domestic market statistics showed that there was no sign of steady recovery in the market. In July, the retail sales and retail sales of all the major retail stores in the country increased by 11.49% and 2.54% respectively over the same period last year, which declined compared with that in June. In terms of export manufacturing, the export of textile products in July was much lower than that expected by the market, and the export growth rate was -8.11% in one month.

The signs of demand improvement at home and abroad are still not obvious in the future, but there is little hope of recovery in the year: export orders have recovered, but gross margin recovery is lagging behind, mainly due to the weak economic recovery in Europe and the United States. Because consumption is related to the economy, oversupply, intensified competition, and high demand inhibit demand, especially in response to market changes, which makes the domestic market still weak in the second half of the year.

In terms of domestic sales, from the industrial point of view, the market downturn led to the "first half" retail business inventory rising, the "second half" shops closed, is now in the first half, the recovery is not great hope.

China Daily Performance Analysis: revenue growth of 5.56%, net profit growth of -15.7%, clothing net profit is obviously better than textile; from the financial indicators of enterprises, including textile and clothing

Enterprises, including spinning enterprises, account receivable turnover rate, inventory turnover, cash flow continued to deteriorate, performance gold content declined.

For the textile and garment sector, we expect September to remain a stock market.

Adhere to the annual investment strategy unchanged, we should pay attention to the quality of textile and garment retail enterprises and manufacturing enterprises.

On the one hand, the better performance of the textile and garment retail sector in August is based on the market's pursuit of pure EPS, and on the other hand it is the product of horizontal comparison investment strategy.

From the end of August, this EPS theory began to waver and the sector continued to adjust. On the one hand, the capital market must face the real market environment, and on the other hand, the listed companies' reports are not satisfactory.

We do not think much of the recovery this year. Despite the adjustment, stock prices are still at a relatively high historical level. We believe that the timing of intervention may be better at the end of the year or early next year.

Recommended combinations: seven wolves, AOKANG, Taihe, Weixing, Lu Tai, nine Mu Wang (601566), and fuanna (002327).

(State Securities (600109) Research Institute)

Textile in September

Plate fell sharply, down 3.49%, resulting in the beginning of this year rose at the end of the industry.

This is mainly due to the fact that the A. consumer stocks are dropping; the B. mainstream men's white horse stocks will be lower than expected in spring and summer 2013 (good news birds 15-16%, seven wolves 10%, 9 Mu Wang (601566) 0 growth, and Lang Lang's fall 9%).

C. exports are sluggish.

Industry fundamentals: 1. domestic sales: in August, due to the Tanabata Festival and summer promotions, clothing sales rebounded significantly.

The retail sales of 100 major retail enterprises increased by 16.72% over the same period last year, 5.23PCT higher than last month.

In terms of retail volume, sales promotion and low base, the volume of retail sales of 100 major large-scale retail enterprises increased by 5.03% in August compared with that of the previous year, and the ratio increased by 2.49PCT.

2. exports: exports in 1-8 fell 0.70% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate continued to decline by 0.49PCT compared with that in 1-7 months.

The growth rate in August was 2.97%, a new monthly high since July.

Our analysis is: (1) under the background of consumer downturn, the manufacturing enterprises with order confirmation and normal operation are better than the brand clothing with high stock prices, and maintain the bank's cashmere industry (000982) strong push rating; (2) in the context of terminal sales downturn, the performance of the three quarter is also cautiously optimistic, but the sharp fall provides long-term layout opportunities.

October combination: cashmere industry, card slave Road (002656) and Pathfinder (300005).