A Surge Of Imported Cotton, Such As Quotas And Other Quotas, Has Triggered A Surge Of Cotton Alarm In The Mainland.

After the massive backlog of coal and iron ore, the backlog of cotton has also become a heavy burden for coastal ports.

According to reports, more than 30 cotton logistics warehouses in Qingdao bonded area, cotton is piled up, and some have been backlog for up to one year.

Under the backlog of cheap imported cotton, domestic cotton has been greatly affected.

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And the way out for cotton cultivation in China has become a hot topic again.

Due to the limited quota and the downturn of domestic textile industry, a large number of imported quilts are stacked in port storage and are difficult to digest.

Recently, a large number of imported cotton piled up the port warehouse, and the market has once again smelled a "cotton mad" flavor.

"Imported cotton is cheaper than domestic cotton, and of course imported cotton."

A cotton textile listed company related departments to the Securities Daily reporter said so.

It is understood that the price difference between the imported cotton and the mainland cotton is about 5000 yuan / ton. With the advantage of the price, the imported cotton has become the new favorite of the market for a moment.

All companies with quotas will buy imported cotton.

Under this premise, importers of cotton have begun to pport large quantities of imported cotton into China. However, due to the limited quota and the downturn of domestic textile industry, a large number of imported quilts are stacked in port storage and are difficult to digest.

At present, most importing cotton merchants are looking forward to the relaxation of import quotas.

However, Wang Qian, editor in chief of China's first textile network, told the Securities Daily that a large number of low-priced imported cotton will enter the domestic market and will have an impact on domestic cotton. Therefore, it is unlikely to relax import quotas.

"The ratio of imported cotton to mainland cotton is best maintained at 3:7."

Wang Qian worries that once the mainland's cotton market is encroachment by cheap imported cotton, it will lose the pricing power of cotton again after the price fixing power of soybeans and edible oil is handed over to each other.

Importers should purchase rationally

According to reports, more than 30 cotton logistics warehouses in the Qingdao free trade zone are packed with cotton and some have been backlog for up to one year.

According to the director of Qingdao Hong Chuan Logistics Co., Ltd., the warehouse has been afraid to go to the warehouse a month ago. The warehouse of the company's more than 20 thousand square meters is already full warehouse, and the cotton has been stacked up to the top of the warehouse.

Another cotton logistics company official said that in July and August, the basic period was the warehousing period, and very few cotton stocks were put into storage. Now, the warehousing plan has been put to the national day, and there are few outlets.

"Importers should purchase imported cotton rationally according to domestic conditions."

Song Jiening, a researcher in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fisheries of China investment advisor, told reporters: "the surge in import cotton has led to insufficient port storage. Because of import quotas, many imported cotton can not enter the domestic market.

The main factors that affect the sale of imported cotton are: first, China's cotton trade policy; second, the price of imported cotton; third, the quality of imported cotton.

According to customs data, China imported 405 thousand and 830 tons of cotton in July, up from 15.7066 tons in July last year.

In the 1-7 months of this year, cotton imports amounted to 3 million 460 thousand tons, up from 1 million 480 thousand tons in the same period last year.

Song Jiening, a researcher of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fisheries of China investment consulting group, believes that the main reasons for the surge of imported cotton are the following three points: first, some major cotton producing countries abroad have increased production to varying degrees, and the upstream supply has increased; second, the downstream textile industry has been depressed, reducing cotton orders; and third, affected by the macroeconomic downturn, the international cotton price has plunged sharply.

Data show that domestic cotton in July 26th was 4618 yuan more than that per ton abroad, and the latest price difference reached 5504 yuan per ton.

Under the influence of huge price differentials, quota spinning enterprises will choose to buy cotton, even if there is no quota, they will spend money on quota purchase.

Importing cotton merchants, driven by huge profits, have also invested heavily in cotton import, resulting in a large increase in cotton imports.

According to the reporter, at present, the largest cotton imports are India cotton, while the former US cotton is squeezed to second.

Although the textile enterprises in India once wanted to restrict the outflow of their cotton, the ban on India cotton could not last for too long in the balance with the local cotton growers.

According to the Research Report on China Securities, it is estimated that the amount of foreign cotton imports in August is still at a high level, and the total import volume of cotton will reach 5 million 500 thousand tons this year.

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In fact, in recent two years, the amount of imported cotton in China is increasing year by year, constantly refreshing the record, especially after the cotton roller coaster, the imported cotton has been popular in the market at a low price.

2011/12 (September 2011 -2012 June), China's total imports of 4 million 730 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 113.8% over the same period.

In the first 6 months of 2012, it imported 3 million 55 thousand tons, an increase of 130.2% over the same period last year.

Song Jiening, a researcher of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fisheries of China investment advisor, told reporters that the surge of imported cotton will bring great pressure to domestic cotton enterprises. China's cotton costs are relatively high, so it has no relative price advantage and is at a disadvantage in competition. Some small and medium-sized cotton enterprises will face a certain risk of bankruptcy.

It can be said that the national quota system and the purchase and storage of reserves will effectively regulate and protect domestic cotton enterprises.

Xu Wenying, vice president of China Textile Industry Association and honorary president of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, said that the quota increase of imported cotton can only alleviate the urgent need.

At present, China's cotton import quota and sliding tax double control, because the quota is issued according to the gap, has effectively controlled the number of cotton imports.

Where is the way out for cotton?

Why is the price difference between domestic cotton and foreign cotton so large?

According to Wang Qian, the United States, for example, has a high degree of mechanization because of the fact that the US adopts farm management, so the cost is relatively small.

China's cotton planting is mainly based on small-scale peasant economy, which can not achieve centralized management and mechanized operation, which greatly increases the cost.

Under the premise that the cost can not be reduced, the state's purchase and storage policy will adjust the price of cotton in the mainland at a reasonable price.

Song Jiening, a researcher in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fisheries of China investment consulting group, believes that the current cotton price should be between 19000-21000 yuan / ton.

It is understood that in September 6th, China will start a new cotton purchase and storage plan for the new year, and the price will be 20400 yuan / ton, much higher than the current spot price.

And before the implementation of the new cotton purchase and storage plan last year, cotton prices also stabilized and picked up.

However, some people in the industry have suggested that relying on State purchasing and storage is not a long-term and effective way to solve domestic cotton prices.

If we want to improve the competition between inner cotton and outer cotton, we need other reforms.

Song Jiening suggested to reporters: "to enhance the competitiveness of domestic cotton, we need to start from three aspects: first, we need to accelerate structural adjustment and eliminate backward surplus capacity; secondly, scale and intensive production, so that we can not only reduce production costs, but also improve the quality of cotton. Once again, the government can give cotton enterprises certain policy subsidies to increase the price advantage of domestic cotton."

According to an interview with reporters, there are many cotton textile listed companies have their own cotton production base, and some companies can even sell their surplus cotton under the premise of ensuring their supply.

"This is a better way to deal with it."

Wang Qianjin introduces, at present, Xinjiang.

Output accounts for more than 50% of domestic cotton supply, and there will be further room for improvement later.