The "Skirt Length Index" Indicates The Economic Downturn, And The Peak Experience Of Brand Shoes And Clothing Enterprises Is Gone.

Women who follow fashions are not hard to find that almost every brand of women's wear this summer has launched a long skirt.

According to the British article published in August 12th, the women's skirt length has reached the highest level since the great depression in 1929. According to the famous "skirt length index", the British economy has bottomed out.

The so-called "skirt index" refers to the degree of economic prosperity and female skirt length to an inverse relationship.

That is to say, when the economy is booming, women's skirts are getting shorter and shorter. Once the economy is in recession, skirts will grow longer.

Although it can not be accurately judged that the length of skirt is related to the economic situation, it is worth noting that the economic situation of most industries is rather bad this year, and the clothing industry closely related to daily life has been lingering in the doldrums.

The latest report of Shenyin and Wanguo showed that in July

The domestic market is in the doldrums, and the growth rate of garment retail sales has slowed sharply compared with the same period last year. On the export side, the export market continued to be weak, with a negative growth in the year-on-year growth rate and no obvious improvement in the short term.

In the clothing sector, the most severe test is sportswear, and its biggest target market, the youth market, is shrinking as the birth rate drops.

In addition, in the environment of raw materials, labor costs rising and the growth of internal and external sales slowed down, the problem of high inventory has not been improved.

Lining, once the leader of China's local sports brand, can completely reflect the ups and downs of this industry.

Catching up with the fastest ten years of China's economic development and catching up with the fast track of the Beijing Olympic Games, the revenue in China even caught up with the international giant Nike.

But happiness comes and goes quickly.

Because of the accumulative superposition of problems such as unclear positioning and pformation, improper price increase and confusion in management, Lining's position as a leader has finally been handed over to others. What's more, the company has plunged into a lot of difficulties, such as the sharp decline in performance and orders, the turbulence of executives, the Ku Cungao enterprises, the swing of positions, the internal and external clamping attacks, and so on. When can we get back to the peak, no one can give an accurate prediction.

At the end of 2011, Lining's share price fell to 6 Hong Kong dollars / share.

While investors are suffering from shrinking share prices, investors are eager to know what has happened to Lining.

The answer can be found in all the annual reports issued in March 29, 2012.

In 2011, the total operating income was 8 billion 929 million yuan, down 5.80% from the same period last year. Net profit was 386 million yuan, down 65.19% from the same period last year, and the basic earnings per share were 0.367 yuan.

In 2010, Lining's earnings per share were as high as 1.07 yuan.

At the same time, Lining's inventory in 2011 has reached 1 billion 130 million yuan, an increase of 40.57% over the same period last year, almost two times that of 2008, and the number of days of inventory turnover also increased from 52 days in the previous year to 73 days.

Lining also issued a performance warning earlier, saying that the annual orders fell. It is expected that profits in the first half of this year and the whole year will drop sharply.

So far, Lining 2012 annual order meeting has been completed, the fourth quarter of the first quarter of the order has a larger decline.

In terms of clothing, the amount of orders has fallen by more than 20%.

At the same time, affected by the amount and duration of CBA sponsorship contracts, the brand marketing and promotion costs will increase significantly in the fourth quarter to the third quarter of 2017. With the impairment of intangible assets of Lotto franchise business and interest on convertible bonds, Lining expects that the pre tax profit and net profit will decrease considerably in the first half of this year and the whole year.

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Lining's performance fell sharply last year.

Lining's net profit decreased by 65.2% to 386 million yuan last year, and its profit declines ranked first among Anta, XTEP, XTEP and PEAK.

In order to improve this dilemma, Lining has said that it will continue to promote channel pformation, enhance the retail efficiency of the two to four line market, further clean up the retail end inventory and speed up cash turnover.

However, Lining is not the only way to sink the channel. Nike launched 300 yuan in 2010.

To seize the middle and low end market.

Meanwhile, Adidas, the world's second largest sporting goods manufacturer, has said that by 2015, it will open more than 2500 stores in two or three cities in China, covering 1400 cities, including small cities with a population of 50 thousand to 500 thousand.

By contrast, Lining's brand influence and price advantage are even more bleak.

The superposition of various reasons makes Lining's performance slightly extreme, but behind this is the deep thinking of whether the whole local sports brand has left gold for ten years.

Because not only Lining, but also in the first camp of Anta, as well as XTEP, PEAK, represented by the low-end Volkswagen brand in 2011, the inventory turnover rate is at a low level in recent years.

Anta stocks 618 million yuan by the end of last year. In the first half of this year, the net profit of shareholders of the company fell 17% to 769 million 600 thousand yuan over the same period.

In the first quarter of July, the order volume (calculated at wholesale value) decreased by 20% to 30% in the first quarter of 2013.

PEAK is also facing a similar embarrassing experience.

In the fourth quarter of this year, orders for footwear and clothing decreased by 20% to 30%.

PEAK expects that the number of stores will be reduced to 7000 by the end of this year, with a drop of around 10%.

Dongxing Securities believes that, referring to the life cycle of apparel industry, domestic

In the second half of maturity.

The current market has shown signs of growth lacklacklable, and the era of easy money continues over the past few years.