Overall Economic Situation Of China'S Shoe Leather Products In The First Half Of 2012

The world economy ended 2011 with a decline of 2.4 percentage points to 3.9%, and 2012 is still coming. At the beginning of the year, the IMF stood at the beginning of the new year, looking forward to the global economic growth of 3.3% in 2012 and 3.9% next year. Three months later, this figure was revised to 3.5% and 4.1%. In July, the data was released again, becoming 3.5% and 3.9%. The already weak global economic recovery shows signs of further weakness.

As an important part of the world economy, industrial production has not been spared. In 2011, the growth rate of world industrial production showed a downward trend quarter by quarter. In the first quarter of 2012, this indicator continued to decline, especially in developed countries, which turned from low to middle digits to negative high ones.

If the world economy is weak, look at the domestic economy. Central tone“ the 12th Five-Year Plan ”During this period, the average annual growth rate was 7%. The Premier said at the 2012 NPC and CPPCC that he expected the economic growth rate to be 7.5% this year, which was "an initiative to lower the development goal". Half a year later, the economic growth in the first half of the year was 7.8%, and this figure was 8.1 and 7.6 in the first and second quarters respectively. Half a year ago, the IMF predicted that China's economy would grow by 8.2%, but now it has become a cautious 8.0%. China's economy cannot and cannot be isolated from the smoke of the world economy.

According to relevant data, the growth rate of world leather, leather products and footwear production in the first quarter was 4.4%, down 6.6 percentage points year on year. According to national data, China Shoe making industry In the first half of the year, the output value increased by 15.1%, of which the output of major products increased by 6.7%, 1 percentage point faster than the same period last year. However, due to the change of statistical caliber, this data is not convincing. Judging from the declining trend of business climate index and entrepreneur confidence index, and the sharp decline of the purchasing index of manufacturing professional managers by about 3 points in May and June compared with March and April, the hard days still have a long time to go.

In terms of export, in the first half of the year, the national export growth rate was 9.2%, and the footwear export reached 9.7%, with the growth rate falling 12 percentage points. Compare Italy The footwear industry may be a little more comfortable. Their footwear export volume in the first quarter increased by 3.5% and - 10% respectively, but the unit price increased by 15%. Since about 80% of China's footwear is exported, the export basically reflects the situation of the entire Chinese footwear industry. Fortunately, since February, the cumulative growth rate of footwear exports has rebounded month by month.

In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of social consumer goods only increased by 14.4% in the first half of the year. As the consumption of urban residents accounting for 86.7% of the total consumption, one of the main battlefields of their consumption is shopping malls. However, the sales growth rate of large retail enterprises has declined quarter by quarter since last year, reaching a new low for nearly five years in the first two months of this year. The first half of this year was basically the same as that of 2009 when the financial crisis hit, the second lowest growth rate in nearly seven years, falling by more than half year-on-year. Among them, clothing, shoes and hats are in the middle high double digits, and the growth rate has also dropped significantly. It is even more tragic for shoes and clothing retail to reach the EU. Since last year, no month has seen sales increase by more than 4%. Occasionally, there are several months with low single digit negative growth. Although the proportion of China's shoe exports to the United States, Europe and Japan has declined by nearly 10% in six years, the deep quagmire of the European economy has also deeply affected China's shoe industry exports.

Consumption growth is sluggish, but prices continue to grow, and high prices have further reduced domestic consumption willingness. From the perspective of production links, the export price of industrial products began to fall from the second half of last year. In the first half of this year, it hovered at a negative growth level, but clothing was still growing at a rate of 2-3%. In June, the CPI fell back to 2.2%, and the retail price of clothing, shoes and hats increased by 3.06%. But in the first half of the year, the CPI reached 3.3, the clothing price increased by 3.5%, and the footwear price increased by 2.7%. This figure is more regarded as a statistical figure, and more consumers' personal feelings are always quite different from the figures revised by experts from the National Bureau of Statistics. A pair of domestic mid-range ordinary sandals costs 600 or 700 yuan or more, which is equivalent to the price of a refrigerator. You can buy a good smart phone.

The price is rising, but the efficiency of shoe stores has declined quarter by quarter since last year. Always aiming at fast fashion, known as Women's Shoes The leading enterprise of sales is racing on the highway, whose growth rate dropped from more than 20% a year ago to a low single digit. By the second quarter of this year, the growth rate of a brand of women's shoes store that has been marching into the middle and low-end market with high speed also dropped, just flat on a year-on-year basis. The sales of women's shoes that can drive the market most are like this, and the domestic sports brands that forgot themselves a few years ago are now entering the winter collectively. The order amount of several major sporting goods giants in the first half of the year was still able to ensure low single digit growth. In autumn and winter, the order amount turned from positive to negative, and suddenly became a decline in the number of units. What was always hanging over was the high inventory that would not go away in a short period of time.

Under the shadow of a cloud, there is still a little light, that is, online sales. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the online retail trade volume grew rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 100.8% during the "11th Five Year Plan" period. In 2010, online retail accounted for more than 500 billion yuan of the total retail sales of consumer goods, accounting for 3.3%. According to statistics, in 2011, online retail exceeded 800 billion yuan, about 4.4%. According to the Ministry of Commerce, this proportion will reach more than 9% in 2015, with an attractive prospect. Due to the small original base and sluggish growth of offline channels, the sales of footwear based e-commerce platforms have reached the low single digits in the hundreds of millions. However, in the past two or two years, the sales have doubled by more than two or three times. The rapid online growth has also attracted shoe manufacturers to show their talents in the cheers. Several of the largest sales last year also reached the hundred million yuan.

The e-commerce industry is a fast-growing industry, but since last year, e-commerce tycoons have collectively cried out for winter and fought hand to hand in the price war. The e-commerce market is turbulent, and the e-commerce competition is a thousand sails racing in the billowing torrent. If you jump in and don't swim, you will be dead, and you may even reach the shore. The water is too big, and I have no strength when I swim. Venture Capital will add some oil and continue to swim. If I have no strength, I can continue to go to the market until I go ashore. If not, I will feed the fish. All the big men entering the e-commerce are crying out for pain, which is a reality. It also tells the people who are going to dive back. Don't come to this muddy water and rob our jobs.

Wearing shoes was originally for walking, but now China's shoe industry has gone through a lot of twists and turns. Where have you been in China's shoe industry?