Short Term Cotton Is Still In A Weak Position, Suggesting That Bears Continue To Hold.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

Wednesday lowered, the ICE-12 cotton contract fell 1.52 cents, or 2.1%, at 69.51 cents per pound, and the trading range between 69.40 and 71.70 cents.

Today, Zheng cotton 1301 contracts continue to go down.

Opened at 19165, the highest 19260, the lowest 19050, closed at 19100, down 200 points compared with the previous trading day.

Cotton index increased by 37658 days on hand, with a turnover of more than 200 thousand hands.

In the spot market, in July 26th, China's cotton price index (328) was 18300 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan.

In July 25th, the FCIndex S index was 90.04 cents / pound, down 1.14 cents from yesterday.

Last week, the focus of the market was reaffirmed by the state.

It said that the state will maintain a policy of unlimited storage and purchase, and the price of the purchase and storage will be set at 20400 yuan / ton.

Unlike previous ones, the purchase and storage will be started if the 3 consecutive working days are lower than the purchase price, and the deadline for the filming will be extended to 15 working days from the first 10 working days.

Although these changes are of little practical significance, they show the determination of the State Reserve to insist on purchasing and stockpiling.

Although the determination is good, the effect is still doubtful.

It is precisely because of the large number of storage and purchase last year, resulting in the existence of high price difference between inside and outside cotton.

After the end of the purchase and storage, the domestic cotton price dive was triggered.

In the new year, the global cotton industry is still in a loose supply and demand pattern. According to the latest report of the US Department of agriculture, the global cotton output in 2012/13 is projected to be 24 million 780 thousand tons; consumption is expected to be 23 million 730 thousand tons; the final inventory will be 15 million 760 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption will be 66%.

Under the overall pattern of loose supply and demand, it is hard to see a strong rise in cotton prices.

In the case of national storage and storage, the high price difference between inside and outside cotton will be normal.

It can be predicted that a large number of cotton imports will enter the country in the new year.

However, the price of domestic cotton will not have to be sold at a lower price if the domestic stock prices are high and the price advantage of imported cotton is high.

Judging from the trend of the disk, today

1301 low opened, once opened up, the highest to 19260, but soon fell, the lowest to 19050, and then maintained a concussion, holdings increased.

Today's market continues to decline, short term is still in a weak position.

It is recommended that bears continue to hold.