Domestic PTA Presents A Situation Of First Suppression And Post Promotion.

Last week, China

Showing the situation of first suppression and back Yang, the main 1301 contracts were oscillating down in the first three trading days, and the price was once broken through the 7400 pass. However, at the early 7350 integer pass, the bottom picked up.

Moreover, on Friday, there was a rare pattern of increasing volume in recent years.

On the spot, the outside market: the market was turning back last week.

Last week, crude oil prices continued to be in a wide range of oscillations, but PX spot prices continued to be strong and crude oil volatility was relatively small, so PTA cost support is still relatively adequate.

Therefore, in the first half of last week, although the downstream demand was still weak, the discount rate of downstream products such as chips and polyester increased moderately, but the spot price of PTA was limited. By the end of the week, the offer for Taiwan's shipment was down to $990 / ton from Monday's $1000-1010 / ton, and it was negotiated to close to $985 / ton. The Korean cargo negotiated 975 dollars / ton on Wednesday.

Friday afternoon, Japan and the domestic two sets of PX device overhaul news, in line with the recent outflow of news, and the possible replenishment expected downstream, PTA futures market army was very active, midday futures directly pulled up more than 200 points, the spot market focus back to Monday level, holding low price reluctant to sell.

Internal market: the trend is basically the same as the external market.

As of Wednesday, the focus of the paction fell from 7450 yuan / ton on Monday to 7350-7400 yuan / ton on Wednesday.

On Friday, with the support of all factors and the pulling up of futures, the centre of gravity returned to Monday level in the afternoon.

1. A 1 million 100 thousand ton PTA installation in Southern China on June 30th was originally scheduled to restart on Thursday. Due to a slight delay, it is expected to resume normal operation early next week.

2, a PTA plant in Southwest China has been obstructing the delivery of goods due to the restriction of the Yangtze River. It may affect shipping for about 3-5 days, and the PTA capacity of the plant is 900 thousand tons.

Last week, there was no change in market load base. At present, social stocks kept at a normal level.

1, a set of PX installations in Northeast China started to stop and repair at the beginning of this month. It is expected to last for about 20 days, involving 700 thousand tons of capacity. The main purpose of the PX parking plan is to cooperate with the construction of the new line, and the supply of the contracted goods will not be affected.

2, a 900 thousand ton PX plant in Japan will be closed for 20 days because of parking on Friday.

In the first 4 trading days of last week, the domestic PTA was in a downward trend. However, as the market hyped up the theme of PX device parking, the price on Friday surged sharply.

However, it is worth noting that PX price support for PTA can not lead to a sustained rebound in the price of PTA. Only the downstream demand can be reversed to reverse the decline of PTA.

Therefore, in terms of operation, it is suggested that investors take the strategy of short selling and short selling. In the case of strong technology, it is advisable for a small number of empty entries to be entered.

Market Description:

Macroscopical surface is interwoven, raw material market is entangled. Last week, the short and short market showed a downward trend.

Affected by the sharp drop in oil prices on Friday, the market in the early days of the week saw a strong atmosphere and some regional prices eased.

On Wednesday, most of the factory quotations from mainstream polyester factories were down, and the market focus also followed.

On Thursday, with the support of the overnight oil price rising, the short and short market is standstill and wait-and-see.

On Friday, the market price sank again.

Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.4D direct spinning polyester short mainstream 9800-9900 yuan / ton factory, a total decline of about 100 yuan / ton.

The price of Qian Qing polyester yarn has dropped slightly, and the mainstream quotation of 32S is 13600-13800 yuan / ton, and bulk trading is the main one.

1. A set of 150 thousand tons direct spinning polyester and short equipment in Jiangyin began to stop and repair in March 22nd. In June 4th, another set of 100 thousand tons direct spinning polyester short polymerization device was opened.

First stop and repair, restart time to be determined.

2. A 200 thousand ton polymerization plant in Jiangyin was stopped and overhauled in March 20th.

3. A manufacturer in Jiangyin stopped a polyester short spinning production line at the beginning of the week, reducing production by 150 tons / day.

4. A set of 120 thousand ton polymerization plant in Shandong was stopped and repaired in early July.

The short and short market trend is uncertain, the market is waiting, production and sales are slack, and manufacturers' inventory has rebounded, which is more than 4-8 days.

Last week, Sinopec made a short weekly guide price: half light 1.4D reported 10250 yuan / ton.

Bright 1.2D reported 10750 yuan / ton.

Raw materials, oil prices fluctuated sharply, PX support for PTA is strong, but the downstream is still no improvement, the market mentality is divided, this week is expected to be weak shocks.

In terms of demand,

The start-up is slightly better than the same period in June. There is a demand for replenishment, and the demand is expected to improve slightly next week.

Supply side, short and short manufacturers do not have much inventory, and supply and demand are basically balanced.

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On the whole, the CPI data released in June and the second quarter GDP data were not optimistic last week, and the economic situation in the third quarter is still grim.

Due to lack of directional guidance, polyester market was relatively quiet last week, and downstream polyester products were moderately high callbacks.

If there is no strong performance of raw materials this week, the possibility that the polyester and short market will continue to decline slightly will be greater.

Affected area

On Friday, Asia's PX market valuation increased by 34 US dollars / ton (1.5%) to 1382.5 US dollars / ton FOB compared with Thursday, FOB Korea and 1403.5 US dollars / ton CFR China Taiwan / Mainland China. This is the highest level of valuation since May 28th.

FOB South Korea's price rose 72 US dollars / ton in a week, while CFR China Taiwan / Mainland China jumped 72 US dollars / ton in the same period.

Price increases depend on strong PX demand for goods in August.

Market participants said that China's Fu Jia Dahua shut down a 700 thousand ton / year PX plant in June for a month's overhaul. Urumqi Petrochemical also shut down its 1 million tons / year PX plant this week, closing time for 20 days.

Friday's August delivery price rose from $1365 / ton to 1385 US dollars / ton CFR China Taiwan / Mainland China, but only a single offer at 1450 us CFR in Taiwan / Mainland China.

During the closing market valuation on Friday, the price of Asian PX market was higher than that of crude oil futures.

On Friday, when the Singapore market closed in the afternoon, ICE Brent crude oil futures in August valued at $101.49 / barrel, up 1.9 US dollars / barrel compared with Thursday.

In the field, China aviation oil has issued 4 rates and 1 quotations.

China Aviation Oil raised its freight rate from $1385 / ton in August to $1400 / ton CFR Taiwan / Ningbo / Dalian, but it did not attract Seller interest.

On Friday, most sellers decided to take a wait-and-see attitude as market prices rose rapidly.

China aviation oil also raised its August /9 month swap price spread from 18 US dollars / ton to 21 US dollars / ton, but no one answered.

Affected by this, Friday /9 August cargo price spread from Thursday's $17 / ton to Friday's $22 / ton.

China aviation oil also raised the price of $6 per ton in August. The price for August was also quoted at the price of $1375 / ton FOB Korea, but the above two rates were not sold.

China aviation oil has withdrawn the price difference of $28 / tonne for August /9 CFR Taiwan / Ningbo swap trading floor offer.

No deal was reached before the market closed.

After the city, there was a single month /9 month trading in August, and August was 27 US dollars / ton higher than that in September.

As the Japan s JX Nippon Oil and Energy in Japan was shut down unexpectedly, the Asian PX market seemed to go further.

Ji Kun day coal mine will shut down its entire B plant on the island because its LPG storage tank is found to be against safety regulations.

The B device contains a set of xylene installations of 13000b/d.

It is not clear how long the shutdown of B will last.

A person familiar with the company said that the aromatics installation in its A device would not be shut down because of a violation. However, the A aromatics plant needs to receive raw materials from the B plant, so its operating rate may be affected.

The A aromatics plant consists of 2 sets of PX units, each with a capacity of 250 thousand tons / year.

After the news of the closure of the Japanese stone power plant in Kyrgyzstan, Japan, a seller withdrew its $1450 / tonne CFR Taiwan / Mainland China's August freight yard offer.