The Economy Of Eastern, Central And Western China Presents A Significant Contrast

"Overall orders are shrinking, but there is also good news."

On April 6, a person from Ningbo Mengheng Garment Accessories Co., Ltd., one of the top garment accessories enterprises in China, said to reporters about the current production and operation situation that since this year, orders from Europe, America and Japan have declined by 20% - 30%, but orders from Africa and India have increased by 15% - 20%.

The change of enterprise orders is more directly reflected in the economic data. In January and February this year, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong declined significantly, with only 2.4%, 4%, 2.9% and 5% respectively, down nearly 2/3 from 9%, 13.9%, 12.5% and 13.3% in the same period last year.

Wenzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen even witnessed negative growth of gross industrial output value or industrial added value, while Beijing and Shanghai witnessed negative growth of fiscal revenue or export delivery value.

In contrast, Provinces and cities in central and western China Our economy is still growing rapidly.

In January and February this year, the industry of Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Guizhou, Chongqing, Shaanxi and other provinces (cities) maintained a growth rate of about 17% or even higher. Shaanxi and Anhui research departments predict that the economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year may be around 13%, which is in sharp contrast to the expectation that the above four coastal provinces (cities) will not exceed 8%.

　　 Negative industrial growth in Wenzhou, Shenzhen and Dongguan

In 2012, Wenzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and other places experienced rare negative economic figures.

In January and February this year, Wenzhou's exports dropped 5.3%, the gross output value of industries above designated size dropped 5.7%, and the actually utilized foreign capital dropped 64.5%. The amount of newly signed agreements and the number of foreign capital agreements dropped 177.8% and 66.7% respectively. Over the same period, Shenzhen and Dongguan also witnessed a 3% and 12.5% year-on-year decline in the added value of industries above designated size.

In response to these changes, local enterprises and industry figures believe that this is related to the current severe export situation and economic transformation.

Lin Jinyou, secretary-general of Wenzhou Shoes and Leather Industry Association, told the reporter that Wenzhou shoes industry is currently facing the double pressure of rising wages and raw material costs. In addition, external demand is weak, and exports are facing great difficulties. The only way is to accelerate transformation and develop high value-added products.

At present, Ningbo and Wenzhou are both experiencing greater export pressure. According to the statistics of Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the export delivery value of Ningbo fell 14.2% in January and February this year, and that of Wenzhou fell 4.1%. Ningbo alone led to a 3.6% drop in the growth rate of Zhejiang's export delivery value in January and February. As a result, in January and February, the export delivery value of industries above designated size in Zhejiang Province was 137.03 billion yuan, down 2.0% year on year.

People from Ningbo Mengheng Garment Accessories Company told the reporter that at present, the company's export orders are declining as a whole, and only the orders from emerging markets can partially make up for the lack of demand in Europe and the United States.

"At present, enterprises are producing according to orders, but the cost of employees' wages is rising, generally rising by 5% - 8% after the Spring Festival this year." The above person said that at present, the average monthly salary of employees is 2500-3000 yuan, and there is still a shortage of workers due to the limited salary increase.

Lin Jinyou also said that the return of migrant workers after the Spring Festival did not occur this year, and the railway sector also ended the peak period of the Spring Festival transportation in advance. "The delay or reduction of migrant workers' rework after the Spring Festival has indeed affected production," said Lin Jinyou.

According to the survey of Zhejiang Bureau of Statistics, the factors restricting the development of SMEs in January and February this year have not been fundamentally improved. The factors restricting the development of SMEs, such as the weakening of market demand, the rising cost of raw materials and labor, and the shortage of funds, are difficult to be fundamentally improved in the short term, and the production and operation of SMEs are difficult.

　　 Coastal economic slowdown shows signs

Some experts who are familiar with the local economy do not believe that the labor shortage has led to the decline of the eastern coastal industry.

Zhong Jian, from the Economic Research Center of the Special Zone of Shenzhen University, believes that the coastal economy will inevitably slow down, especially in the Pearl River Delta represented by Shenzhen and Dongguan, and the Yangtze River Delta represented by Suzhou and Wenzhou. It is expected that because the past economic model has been difficult to sustain, it will be difficult to have rapid growth again.

At present, Shenzhen, Dongguan It is still highly dependent on external demand. Shenzhen's exports account for 40% of the total economy, and Dongguan even accounts for more than 80%. This kind of export-oriented economy is mainly engaged in processing with supplied materials to earn meager profits. Under the background of European and American countries starting to develop a large number of remanufacturing industries, the economy of the Pearl River Delta will certainly slow down.

"Shenzhen has large high-tech enterprises such as Huawei, which can support it, but Dongguan does not have such large enterprises, so the economy will still face severe challenges in the next few years," he said.

Zhong Jian pointed out that Shenzhen's per capita GDP has exceeded 13000 US dollars, ranking among developed countries and regions. From this perspective, Shenzhen's economic slowdown is in line with the economic law. However, Shenzhen still has many weaknesses that are incompatible with its economic development level. For example, according to international experience, the proportion of service industry in developed economies should reach 70%, while that in Shenzhen is only 50%.

According to the report issued by Shenzhen Bureau of Statistics, from the historical data, the current decline is a normal response to changes in the external environment, and it has not fallen back to the extent affected by the financial crisis in the same period of 2009.

The above analysis report points out that at present, "the moderate decline in economic growth reflects the normal impact of Shenzhen's own initiative in industrial upgrading and economic transformation".

Shenzhen is in the stage of economic transformation, and also suffers from the impact of domestic and international economic environment. The moderate slowdown of economic growth reflects the transformation of Shenzhen's economy from speed oriented to quality oriented, and reflects the normal impact and changes of industrial transformation and upgrading.

According to some enterprises, Shenzhen's economy is slowing down, which is a pain in transition.

Shenzhen Xinwei Garment Co., Ltd. is located in the Shatoujiao Free Trade Zone, Yantian District, Shenzhen. Ying Qiang, the general manager of the company, told the reporter that the company has always been producing clothing products for export to European and American markets. Since January 2012, exports have decreased by nearly 30%. Ying Qiang did not show concern. The reason is that the profit at the beginning of this year is better than that of last year. "The company has been prepared," he said.

Affected by the European debt crisis and the recession of the US economy, the consumer confidence of the two major markets in Europe and the United States has been greatly hit.

In the second half of 2011, Yingqiang companies began to develop new customers in the mainland. Up to now, two or three major stable customers have been cultivated, and orders have been placed in August this year.

According to Ying Qiang, the company's goal now is to make up 60% of foreign trade and 40% of domestic sales, so it can't rely too much on foreign markets.

　　 Beijing Shanghai Zhejiang Guangdong Great Deceleration and Partial Cooling of Economy

In the second half of 2011, Yingqiang companies began to develop new customers in the mainland. So far, they have cultivated two or three relatively stable large customers, and orders have been placed in August this year.

According to Ying Qiang, the company's goal now is to make up 60% of foreign trade and 40% of domestic sales, so it can't rely on foreign markets excessively.

Zhong Jian believes that Shenzhen, Dongguan and Wenzhou should speed up their transformation. For example, on the one hand, they should speed up the upgrading of enterprises' technological content and more reduce their dependence on human costs. On the other hand, it can extend the industrial chain. In the past, it was mainly for processing. In the future, it can be a brand, research and development, and product sales, especially to the mainland.

"There is no other way out. Otherwise, like Foxconn, if it switches to the mainland for production, it will still face the problem of rising labor costs in the long run. At present, it only has a temporary competitive advantage."

The economic slowdown not only in Shenzhen, but also in Guangdong Province, as well as in Shanghai, Beijing and Zhejiang is also related to the development stage.

The data shows that Shanghai's per capita GDP in 2011 was 12784 US dollars, and Beijing's per capita GDP was 12447 US dollars, both close to the level of developed countries.

In 2011, the economic growth of Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong ranked last in China. Xu Jianfeng, director of the Economic Research Institute of the Zhejiang Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that Zhejiang's per capita GDP in 2008 had reached 6080 US dollars, close to the level of Japan in 1970, Taiwan in 1986, and South Korea in 1990. Referring to the experience of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, this is the turning point of the economy from high-speed growth to stable growth.

　　 Gradient growth in the east, west, and east

From January to February this year, the industries in Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Henan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Shaanxi and other central and western regions still maintained rapid growth, with the growth rate generally around 17%. For this reason, the economic research departments of Shaanxi and Anhui judged that the economic growth of the two places in the first quarter of this year may be more than 13%.

Chongqing, one of the core cities in the West Triangle, still experienced a rapid industrial growth in the first two months of this year, with the export growth reaching 35%. Deng Tao, director of the Decision Consulting Research Center of the Chongqing Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the rapid growth of Chongqing's exports is related to its notebook and other high-tech products. The products exported by many coastal provinces are mainly labor-intensive products, which are more vulnerable to changes in international market demand.

In addition to the advantages of land and labor costs, the rapid growth of Chongqing's export and industry also has the factor of attaching importance to the construction of R&D centers. In January and February, Chongqing's actual utilization of foreign capital increased by 55.3%, and the amount of investment contracts increased by 14.4%. In the context of the decline of foreign direct investment in the country and coastal areas, it is particularly striking.

Dong Dehong, the secretary-general of Chongqing Association of Enterprises with Foreign Investment, said that Chongqing has a golden waterway of the Yangtze River, which can be exported from west to south via the Eurasian Continental Bridge and the Indian Ocean Channel. In addition, the rich labor resources have great attraction for foreign investment. "The central and western regions are attracting investment, and Chongqing shows only comparative advantages."

Shen Kaiyan, deputy director of the Economic Institute of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that the eastern coastal areas are nearing completion of industrialization, land and human costs have increased, and external demand has decreased, so the economic growth has slowed down; However, the central and western regions are still in the stage of industrial development, and there is still room to accelerate economic development by attracting industrial transfer and achieving rapid industrial growth. As a result, China can form a gradient development model to maintain steady and rapid economic growth in all regions, which is conducive to more balanced economic growth throughout the country. "The per capita GDP (regional GDP) of Beijing and Shanghai is close to the level of developed countries and regions. According to the economic law, it is inevitable that the growth rate will slow down."