Stock Market Observation: It Is Difficult To Have Too Much Space &Nbsp; Only Moderate Operation.

On the day before Dayang, Friday A shares Out of convergence and turbulence. Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.19% points to 2306.55 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.66% points to 925.53 points, and the transaction narrowed slightly.

On Thursday, the trend of A shares is still a bit of a hit. By Friday, it is really bad. This trend can not provide much information, and bored investors even surround the stock exchange on the Internet. In fact, the Chinese stock market only needs to be fair, open and fair, that is, it will not matter if the Shanghai Stock Exchange is stuffed with "iron bears".

The market rose significantly in January and February, and was greatly adjusted in March. At present, although many of them have been recalled, the pattern can still be seen, and the adjustment is still in the normal range. If the domestic and international economic situation is in the expected range as long as there is no frustrating change in the system or the issuance of super large cap stocks, the stock index should still be expected to go up after a period of consolidation.

At present, although the outside market is still high, it has shown some weakness. From the relevant information of the Fed and ECB interest rate meetings this week, the Fed and the European Central Bank have begun reservations in pushing for the subsequent quantitative easing policy, and the Spanish debt crisis does not exist, so the external situation may be developing in a negative direction. However, as long as the future adjustment takes place in a moderate and controllable range, the impact on A shares will be limited.

Internally, the information is rather messy and even locality. Old-age pension The news of entering the market has also changed, unable to get a right idea, let alone other big news.

The confusion of information usually makes investors feel at a loss and can only passively reduce their positions. Some long-term funds may even go away in anger, which is not conducive to the long-term development of the stock market.

In the future, information that may interfere with the stock market will include new IPO reform, new three boards, nationwide OTC market and the lifting of bank profits. I guess the future news is also likely to be abnormal, and eventually weary.

The impact of these news on stock index and some plate stocks is very great, such as news surface is not transparent, or news asymmetry, will have great harm to ordinary shareholders. To break the monopoly of banks, for example, the implementation is completely different. The stock index is therefore totally different, because the equity stake of the bank is really out of line.

Economic fundamentals, from 1997 Asia Pacific Financial Crisis In the following years, when China's economy was dragged down by global factors, it would take time to get out of the downturn. What's more, today's total economic output and export volume are no longer comparable with those of that year, and the "structural elasticity" is much worse than that of the current year.

It is necessary to add that the experience after 1997 is still a bit discounted. As 2001 happened to join WTO in China, it would naturally increase its exports and turn itself into a "world factory". After 1998, the government energetically invested in stimulating capacity, and it happened to get a way out. If this is not the case, the recovery will probably be even later.

The market is likely to increase in the short term, but because of limited support, the upper space is more difficult to be optimistic. From the futures position, the bears have shown a more obvious retreat, because it has been reduced for two days in a row. However, it is not clear whether the retreat is strategic or tactical. This is because the probability of "reduction" will be greater this month and will happen at any time.

Next week, China will publish a series of data, including the CPI in March. If the CPI value is relatively low, it will not rule out the possibility that the "reduction" is earlier than expected. At this very weekend, it will be more obvious than the death.

If the CPI value is slightly higher, the "reduction" may be delayed for a while. In such a case, the possible time in mid and late this month will be substantially increased due to the financial contribution at the end of this month.

For the broader market, "reduction" is likely to be more profitable if it occurs later this month. As a result of the announcement of the first quarter reports of Listed Companies in the middle of the month, it is likely that there will be a large number of decline in performance or impact on the stock index. If later, "reduce the accuracy", then achievement Or the macro data is bad at all. At that time, "lowering the standard" will be much simpler for stock index support.