Polyester Staple Market Is Expected To Rise First And Then Stabilize.

Last December,

The trend of polyester staple fiber can be divided into several sections: in the early December of last year, under the stimulation of multiple macro-economic benefits, the polyester market overall recovered, and some merchants entered the market to catch up with the market, and the market prices rebounded rapidly. The PET staple market instantly reversed; in mid December, as the price steadily rose, the turnover atmosphere gradually dropped, and the wait-and-see mentality gradually strengthened; in late December, the price of raw materials for high settlement was introduced, and driven by the cost pressures and tight spot supply of polyester staple fiber manufacturers, the manufacturers' willingness to raise prices was strong and the market reappeared.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the market of polyester staple fiber continued to decline in late September last year. Since the beginning of October, manufacturers have limited production and insured prices. At the end of November, the market price dropped to around 10600 yuan / ton, and the industrial production load dropped from about 7 to 6 in the year, and the market supply decreased significantly.

Based on the overall situation of the market of polyester staple fiber in the past year, the downstream purchasing method changed from single warehouse to follow up purchase, especially in the second half of last year. The raw material storehouse of downstream yarn manufacturers is generally within a week.

Therefore, in the early December of last year, after the Dacron staple was successfully stored, the supply of the staple fiber has been maintaining a tight situation.

In terms of raw materials, after the successful rebound of PTA, the PX price moved steadily upward, and the PTA cost push effect increased.

However, constrained by the weak purchasing of polyester industry chain, PTA is short of kinetic energy and profits are gradually eroded by PX. Last December, PTA industry was hovering at the margins of profit and loss, so the December PTA mainstream settlement price was 8700 yuan / ton, basically in line with the market.

At present, PTA is in the "sandwich" position, which is strongly supported by PX and weak in downstream purchasing.

The US dollar continues to weaken, and the market is worried about the impact of Iran and Iraq's crude oil supply or interruption. The recent international oil price performance is stronger, and the price of PX is strong.

Late geopolitical tension is still the most important factor in driving oil prices up, so the price of PTA has not fallen much before the Spring Festival.

However, even if the basic preference is not matched by capital and volume, the PTA market will not have bright spots under the pressure of two sides.

Before the Spring Festival, the mentality of stocking downstream may still be cautious.

After the new year's day, the number of enterprises on the downstream parking lots is increasing. The price of 11500 yuan / ton will lead to the reduction of stocking volume by many manufacturers.

In my opinion, the pressure of polyester staple industry in January is very small. If there is a centralized purchasing action or other favorable actions downstream, short staple manufacturers will be active.

From another point of view, the sharp rise in pre - holiday will also affect the overdraft.