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Textile Industry Bottomed Out In The First Quarter Of Next Year

2011/12/28 9:35:00 13

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Economy in the second half of 2011

Weaken

The price of textile raw materials has dropped, and the middle reaches of the textile industry have been at a low ebb.

pull up

。

In 2012, downstream orders have gradually picked up. The textile industry is expected to rise after the lunar new year, but the profit growth is estimated to be limited.

European debt crisis and tighter credit in China, textile industry in the second half of this year has been dull, the price has dropped, and the fourth quarter upstream.

Raw material of chemical fibre

Material heavy setback, midstream processing silk product quotation increases.

Decline

。

In the first quarter of this year, the international cotton price was 150 cents per pound. After the best single season profit level in recent years, the cotton growers in the United States increased by a large area of 25%. The cotton cultivation area in China and India increased year by year, and the overall supply of cotton in the fourth quarter of 2011 increased significantly.

The US Department of agriculture predicts that the world's cotton output will reach 123 million bales (480 pounds / pack) from 2011 to 2012, increasing by 7.7% annually, but the global demand for the same period will be revised to 111 million packs from the original estimate of 116 million bags. This reflects the slowdown in US Europe and China's demand, and the global cotton supply will exceed the demand 10.9%, and the supply and demand situation will be reversed.

In the price segment, from late autumn to early next year for the cotton harvest season, the short-term oversupply will be more serious, and the cotton price will drop to 86 cents from 100 cents per ton. The supply and demand adjustment is expected to last for half a year. It is estimated that the international cotton price will be between 80 and 95 cents per pound in the first half of 2012.

Cotton prices fall, an alternative

Effect

The processing silk population is also hard to raise the price, plus the new raw material of polyester yarn, PTA, has opened up in China, making the global PTA capacity utilization decline since the peak of 2011. The supply and demand situation is changing year by year, and the price will be relatively more stressful.

Because the Chinese government has limited the production capacity of PTA upstream material to xylene (PX), and the supply is relatively tight, it will also constrain the spread of PTA plant. The recent sluggish demand and the continued decline in quoted prices are expected to drive the quotation back up in 2012 after the lunar new year, but the long-term utilization of capacity will go down, and the spread of polyester population will be relatively depressed.

Looking forward to 2012, downstream orders have gradually picked up, and the textile industry boom is expected to bottom out after the lunar new year.