The Spot Rate Of RMB Touched &Nbsp For Seven Consecutive Days; &Nbsp; &Nbsp; A Shares Behaved Very Differently.
In December 7th,
RMB
Spot
exchange rate
For the first time in 3 years, 6 consecutive trading days ended in mid day trading.
In December 8th, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed for seventh consecutive trading days.
At first, people began to realize that the way of appreciation of the renminbi might have met the turning point.
Then, when the devaluation is slowly infiltrating into the Renminbi denominated assets such as stocks, people will panic again. This expectation will drag down the price of these assets.
equity market
It's not a decisive influence.
Fu Haojie, a researcher at the Japan Securities strategy, said that the rising expectation of RMB devaluation may have adverse effects on the three industries.
First of all, it represents the industry of local currency assets, such as real estate, finance and mining.
Second, industries with high foreign currency liabilities, such as aviation and trade.
Finally, industries with high import volume, such as petrochemicals, paper making and iron and steel.
Under the expected depreciation of the renminbi, the above plate may cause downward expectations.
But in view of the fact that many of these plates have lost a lot, it is not easy to say how much they will fall in the future.
On the contrary, some industries may benefit from RMB.
depreciation
。
Such as textile and clothing and chemical industry.
What is fishy is that although the RMB continued to hit the limit this week, the A share plate was very "different".
According to statistics, in the 22 industry index of Shen Wan, only one sector of financial services has gone up this week, or 0.58%.
Another second good performance is real estate, or 0.5%.
On the contrary, those that may benefit from the depreciation of the renminbi have fallen sharply.
Among them, textile and clothing fell 2.3%, black metal fell 3.2%.
Yu Jie, deputy director of Dongguan Securities Research Institute, pointed out that the continuous limit of RMB reflects the continuous outflow of hot money, but this impact on A shares is short-term, and there is no obvious impact in the medium and long term.
The main reason is that the depreciation of the RMB is a political issue and the US may not be willing to see it.
In addition, although this may suppress the rebound in the stock market, it will not necessarily significantly reduce the stock index.
On the contrary, like
Finance
Since services and real estate have fallen sharply, the downward space may have been limited.
Ministry of Commerce: China's currency manipulation
The former Deputy Minister of international trade negotiations of the Ministry of Commerce said yesterday that the situation of China's foreign trade and import and export will be more severe in 2012. We must continue to stabilize exports and expand imports, which is conducive to the healthy and stable development of our economy.
In response to the recent devaluation of the renminbi, Chong Quan said that this shows that the Chinese government has never manipulated the exchange rate, and that the RMB exchange rate fluctuated according to market changes and market demand.
In view of the recent devaluation of the RMB, Chong Quan said that this is a very good phenomenon. It shows that the RMB exchange rate is not controlled by the government. It is not like some people say that China is manipulating the exchange rate. The Chinese government has never manipulated the exchange rate. The RMB exchange rate fluctuates according to market changes and market demand. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate is likely to rise again, or it may be devalued again.
"There is no need for the market to overread the decline of the renminbi."
Zhang Monan, an associate research fellow at the state information center, believes that the change in the exchange rate of a country's currency will objectively reflect the degree of equilibrium in and outside the country's economy. The slowing down and appreciation of RMB appreciation is a reflection of the current economic structure in China, and the market should not be too panicked.
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