The Yuan Fell To 6 Against The US Dollar &Nbsp; MOFCOM: China Did Not Manipulate The Exchange Rate.

China Ministry of Commerce International

Chong Quan said that the situation of China's foreign trade and import and export in 2012 will be grim. It is conducive to the healthy and steady development of our economy to continue to stabilize exports and expand imports.

Exploration of trend

Why is there a "6 drop?"

The reason for the sudden disappearance of RMB appreciation is complicated. It is not yet clear whether international speculators are attacking the renminbi.

However, it can be expected that the renminbi may say goodbye to the era of "advancing step by step". In the future, people will see RMB rising or depreciating and becoming more market-oriented.

Adverse factors affecting appreciation are gathering.

On the 7 day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.3342, while the spot market continued to show high and low state.

Such a situation can not help but recall that in late 2008, the financial crisis led to the return of capital to the European and American markets, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar for a time of 4 days touched a drop and stop position.

However, the current RMB exchange rate limit is more complicated than the last one.

First of all, many adverse factors affecting the appreciation of the renminbi are gathering, including slowing economic growth, rising financial system risks and weak exports.

Next is the concentrated exchange at the end of the year.

The European debt crisis is also an important reason for the huge demand for the US dollar.

Meanwhile, there are a series of anomalies in the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong: the offshore RMB exchange rate is lower than the on shore exchange rate, and the Hongkong's RMB deposit scale has declined for the first time in two years, all of which indicate that the appreciation of the renminbi is not optimistic.

Zhao Qingming, senior research fellow at China Construction Bank, said: "the daily limit of the RMB in the onshore market is mainly caused by the pmission from overseas markets to the territory, which may last longer than in 2008."

Is capital running or sniping?

In the light of the decline of the RMB exchange rate, the theory of "foreign capital escaping" is coming back again.

However, the phenomenon of "capital flight" is not confined to China, but also in other Asian markets.

But don't forget that from last year to the beginning of this year, there are also many funds coming in. "

"Some hedge fund managers say they have reduced European exposure assets very low, which means that the redemption funds are not as much as the market imagined," said Wu Weihong, director of DBS bank's Treasury market division.

Another view is that the renminbi may be under attack.

He Jun, a senior researcher at Ampang consulting, believes that this is the best time to snipe RMB.

As for the main force of sniping, it may be an investment banking trading department accustomed to making waves in the international financial market.

However, some experts think this possibility is very small.

Zhao Qingming pointed out: "the RMB exchange rate market is relatively closed, so it is unlikely that the renminbi will be sniping."

Whether to accelerate the reform is still controversial.

The floating of RMB according to market demand is conducive to the active financial market.

Liu Ligang, director of economic research in the Greater China region of Australia and New Zealand, said that the continued downward trend of the RMB means that the two-way volatility risks of the market are strengthening, and the unilateral appreciation expectation is gradually failing. This is a good thing for our financial market, and enterprises are willing to participate in pactions such as hedging in financial products more, so as to deepen the paction depth.

Whether there is a good opportunity for China to accelerate the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism is still controversial.

Some economists suggest that we should seize the opportunity to expand the fluctuation range of RMB pactions in a timely manner. Another view is that increasing the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will lead to the excessive depreciation of the RMB.

Chen Xuebin, executive vice president of the Financial Research Institute of Fudan University, believes that the renminbi will fluctuate slightly against the US dollar exchange rate.

"In the long run, as the renminbi will become an important currency in the international market, the market as a whole will still maintain a steady appreciation of its value."

Wu Weihong said.

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Expert opinion

Multinational experts talk about the issue of RMB exchange rate:

Appreciation of the renminbi will damage the recovery of world economy

From the perspective of money purchasing power, the Renminbi should depreciate rather than appreciate.

According to the current exchange rate, the renminbi is basically in equilibrium.

The rapid appreciation of the renminbi will result in a large influx of speculative capital.

In the context of the global economic downturn and the gloomy economic outlook in Europe and the United States, some countries have again staged a "political show" to revalue the renminbi.

In response, multinational experts and scholars have pointed out that unilateral repression of RMB appreciation will not only solve the problem of global economic imbalances, but will also damage the world economic recovery.

Chen Zhiwu, a professor of finance at Yale University, said on the 5 day that in fact, from the perspective of money purchasing power, the Renminbi should depreciate rather than appreciate, because in accordance with the current RMB exchange rate, many items, including clothing, daily necessities, furniture, electrical appliances, food and so on, are more expensive in China than in the United States.

Professor Yao Shujie, Dean of the Institute of contemporary Chinese Studies at University of Nottingham, believes that the renminbi is basically at equilibrium according to the current exchange rate, which is neither underestimated nor overestimated.

Ostrovsky, deputy director of the Far East Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out that it is obvious that if the RMB appreciates rapidly, it will cause a large amount of speculative capital to enter, which will have a huge impact on the financial system.

Market winds and clouds

A shares B shares initially fall

Before the Yuan's spot rate declined and panic dropped, A shares and B shares finally showed signs of a preliminary stop.

Yesterday, in the context of the sixth day limit of RMB spot exchange rate, Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities A share and B share index all received the red plate.

Specifically, yesterday's stock index closed at 2332.73 points, up 6.82 points, or 0.29%; Shenzhen's Shenzhen stock index closed at 9606.25 points, up 19.31 points, or 0.20%; two cities totaled 76 billion 390 million yuan.

In addition, yesterday's Shanghai B index closed at 222.35 points, up 1.45 points, or 0.66%, Shenzhen B index closed at 578.32 points, up 4.70 points, or 0.82%.

Analysis of this A shares and B shares are no longer afraid of the RMB spot exchange rate limit and the reason for the red market. Market participants believe that although the spot exchange rate of RMB continued to decline, but as the "official price" of the middle price is still rising, so it is not yet clear that the RMB will enter the path of depreciation.

On the other hand, just as the old saying goes, "once again, we are going to die, and we are going to lose three." at the moment, the RMB spot exchange rate limit is no longer news, and the negative impact on A shares and B shares has naturally decreased.