Currency Exchange Rate News Good: Textile Industry Ushered In "One Meter Sunshine"

Although the central bank announced the central parity of RMB to the US dollar, the signal was obvious, but it was "pressed" by the market.

As of yesterday, the RMB has touched the limit line for 6 consecutive days, and the expected depreciation continues to warm up.

In the global recession, domestic

In the wake of the turmoil in overseas financial markets, China's foreign exchange holdings have declined for the first time in recent years. Recently released relevant economic data show that the rate of inflow of foreign hot money is slowing down, and the hot money lurking in China is also gradually being withdrawn.

Market expectations, the negative growth of foreign exchange may give monetary policy more room for operation.

Over the past 10 years, due to the strong expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB and the continuous influx of hot money into China, most of the hot money has been speculation in real estate, stock market, underground banks and commodity speculation market. Affected by early real estate regulation and monetary policy tightening, the domestic property market is becoming colder, no matter the volume of paction or the volume of paction is low.

In addition, the downward trend of domestic economic growth, the impact of tightening policy on the real economy is gradually emerging, and the turning point or coming of the domestic real estate market may lead to the outflow of funds.

Positive impact

Export: relieves no cure

Under the background of RMB devaluation expectations, the impact on listed companies of various sectors and sectors is different.

The depreciation of RMB can play a stabilizing role in the export of products, and the purchase of raw materials in China, especially in industries with high dependence on exports.

Including textile and clothing, electronic and electrical appliances, toy shoes and hats, furniture, building materials and construction machinery, and so on, are all benefited industries.

According to research, the sales profit margin of the textile industry decreased by 2% to 6% when the value of RMB increased by 1%.

Statistics show that the export dependency ratio of cotton textile, wool textile and clothing is 20%, 27% and 60% respectively.

At present, the average net profit margin of the entire textile industry is only 3% to 4%.

If the RMB depreciates, the textile industry will benefit greatly.

Two tier market, the recent trend of textile plate polarization, Victor essence, Jiaxin silk and other leading stocks rose larger, since December, or more than 20%, but there are many stocks dragging the industry in the back leg, Jiangsu sunshine, Huafang textile and other December dropped more than 30%.

The industry believes that even if the RMB depreciation trend is established, if the overseas market demand can not be boosted, the positive effect brought about by the depreciation can only play a role of relieving. When choosing stocks, investors should also refer to the comprehensive factors such as fundamentals and annual reports.

The small and medium-sized household electrical appliance enterprises with export as the main market, poor bargaining power and low profit hardware and electromechanical industries are also in a predicament. If the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to be reversed, the situation of these industries will be better.

But in general, the main factors that restrain exports are global economic recession and weak external demand rather than exchange rate. Therefore, devaluation of the RMB can not solve the export problem effectively, so it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the decline in exports.

In the first 10 months of 2011, China's cumulative trade surplus amounted to US $124 billion 28 million, narrowing 15.4% compared with the same period last year.

China's foreign trade situation report (autumn 2011) released by the Ministry of Commerce in November 11th predicted that China's foreign trade growth rate will show a trend of high and low in 2011. The report also predicts that the growth rate of foreign trade in 2012 may fall.

negative effect

Aviation: remittance "from profit to loss"

In addition, if the devaluation of the renminbi is negatively affected, it may be the aviation sector and the paper industry.

For industries such as real estate, finance, etc., which have been lingering low, it is undoubtedly worse.

The exchange rate gains and losses of RMB appreciation make the aviation sector benefit a lot. If the renminbi changes from appreciation to depreciation, it will be bad for the aviation sector.

In addition, due to the cost of aviation fuel accounts for more than 30% of the total cost of the airline, airlines are under the pressure of increasing aviation fuel costs.

If the renminbi depreciates, it will also increase the cost of aviation fuel.

In the first half of 2010, the financial cost of China Eastern Airlines decreased by 1 billion 208 million yuan compared with the same period in the first half of 2011 as compared with the same period in the first half of 2011, compared with 637 million yuan in the first half of 2011.

The net income of China Southern Airlines in the first half of 2011 was 1 billion 211 million yuan, an increase of 947 million yuan compared with the same period last year.

In the first half of 2011, China's air exchange net income was 1 billion 480 million yuan, an increase of 1 billion 200 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 428% over the same period last year.

Papermaking: homemade pulp is relatively independent.

Because of the low forest coverage and the low utilization rate of waste paper, China has become the largest pulp importer in the world, and the paper industry has become the third largest foreign exchange industry in China.

Because of the large proportion of wood pulp and waste paper imported from domestic raw materials, wood pulp accounts for about 60% of the cost of paper making enterprises, and imported wood pulp accounts for 70%. The depreciation of the renminbi will increase the cost of imported raw materials for the paper industry, which relies mainly on US dollar foreign exchange to purchase raw materials.

In addition, most of China's large paper machines rely on imports, because imported paper machines and raw materials need foreign currency, and listed companies have foreign currency liabilities. The depreciation of the renminbi will affect the company's exchange earnings and even the possibility of exchange losses.

For the paper industry, a sound forest, paper and pulp industry chain should be built to ensure the steady development of enterprises.

At present, the listed companies with high homemade pulp, Chenming paper, sun paper and Yueyang forestry paper are less affected by the external environment, and are also in the forefront of the industry in the construction of the industrial chain.

comprehensive

[disc broadcasting]

RMB 6 trading days "touch" limit

In December 7th, the RMB traded against the US dollar for the first time in 3 years in sixth consecutive trading days.

The press office of the State Council held a press conference on Tuesday, and Chong Quan, deputy representative of the international trade negotiations of the Ministry of Commerce, said at the press conference that the RMB has continued to hit the "limit line" problem. This is a very good phenomenon. It shows that the RMB exchange rate is not controlled by the government, it is regulated by the market.