Policy Anticipation Promotes Rebound

After "eleven", the market is in Huijin.

The macro data released just now show that China's economy continues to be in a pullback trend. In September, China's manufacturing PMI reported 51.2, up 0.3 percentage points from August, but the rally was far weaker than the historical average level (2.3 percentage points), indicating that economic growth is still relatively weak.

In September, China's total exports totaled 169 billion 673 million US dollars, down 2.1% from the historical average (4.6%), an increase of 17.1% over the same period last year, down 7.4 percentage points from August, lower than the 20.6% expected by the market.

From the perspective of countries and regions, the growth rate of exports to the European Union in September dropped by 12.5 percentage points compared with August, and the export growth rate of Hongkong dropped by 9.6 percentage points compared with that of August. This shows that the impact of the European debt crisis on China's exports is beginning to show, and the future export situation is not optimistic.

In September, the total import volume decreased by 0.2%, which was also lower than the historical average (7.1%), an increase of 20.9% over the previous year, down 9.3 percentage points from August, indicating that domestic demand began to shrink under the policy function.

At the same time, the slowdown in investment in high-speed rail and the callback in real estate investment will bring downward pressure on future investment growth. If consumption remains stable, the future economy may continue.

In September, CPI rose 6.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from August, basically in line with market expectations, but CPI rose 0.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from August.

CPI year-on-year growth, the tail factor contributed 2.11 percentage points, the new factor contributed 3.99 percentage points, the contribution of new factors expanded for 8 consecutive months, indicating that the current inflationary pressure is still larger.

Of course, we also see that the CPI growth rate is weaker than the historical average of 0.64% in the month. The monetary policy started to shrink continuously, but it is the key period to control inflation. It needs stable monetary policy to consolidate the early effect.

The loosening of monetary policy may be the greatest benefit in market expectations, but judging from the current inflation situation, the expectation of monetary policy will eventually become more disappointing.

Pulse market is still available.

The recent rebound in the market is mainly based on the yearning for favorable policies.

First of all, Huijin increased its holdings of four major stocks. The initial reaction of the market was that it was difficult for the behavior to reverse the market decline and led the market to go higher and lower. Then the Shanghai stock index hit a new low since March 2009.

Then, the market began to change the interpretation of Huijin's holdings. He believed that Huijin's holdings of the four major stocks represented the government's attitude to save the market, and there would be favorable policies to follow. The market began to turn upward under this expectation.

The support of the State Council for small and medium-sized enterprises further strengthened the market expectation, and the market sentiment continued to improve, so that it only made a slight reaction to the expected export data.

After announces the CPI data on Friday, sensitive investors seem to realize that monetary policy will not be significantly loosened in the short term, and the market will then shrink back.

It can be seen that the current rebound is mainly based on the expectation of favorable policies, rather than the fundamental improvement of fundamentals. The market will continue to rise when the good policies are fulfilled in the future.

At present, EU leaders are going to hold a meeting to discuss the solution to the European debt crisis. There will not be too bad news in the short term. There are some emotional factors such as culture, water conservancy and other favorable policies that can be expected.

Therefore, the market can still maintain a rebound in the short term, but it is not too high to be expected to rebound.