October 17Th Must Read: Wait Patiently For Positive Signals.

1. China National Bureau of statistics, September residents

Comments: China's CPI year-on-year growth rate continued downward in September, the signs of turning point are more obvious, but still remain high, PPI growth rate fell faster than CPI.

The decline of CPI and PPI has a certain number of reasons for the year-on-year growth rate. At the same time, the slowdown in demand growth is also the key. The growth rate of pork prices in CPI has played a significant role, and the fall of PPI has also been affected by the sharp fall in international commodity prices.

at present

2. the data released by China's central bank on 14 showed that the M2 balance was 78 trillion and 740 billion yuan at the end of 9, an increase of 13% over the previous year, which was 0.5 and 6.7 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the end of last year. The balance of M1 was 26 trillion and 720 billion yuan, up 8.9% over the previous year, respectively, which was 2.3 and 12.3 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the end of last year.

RMB loans increased by 470 billion yuan in September.

Comments: in September, financial data showed that the effect of tightening monetary policy continued to be remarkable, and all data were lower than market expectations.

Among them, the growth rate of M1 is below 10%, which is worth noting.

3. Xinhua News Agency reported that in from October 13th to 14th, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council during the opening ceremony of the 110th Canton Fair stressed the need to focus on five tasks at present: 1 to maintain the basic stability of export policy.

Increase credit support to foreign trade enterprises.

2, actively expand imports.

We should promptly formulate guidelines for strengthening imports and promoting trade balance.

3, accelerate the pformation of the development mode of foreign trade.

We will produce more high, fine, sharp and new products with independent intellectual property rights, which will be changed from "made in China" to "created in China".

4 improve the quality and level of foreign capital utilization.

We should encourage foreign investment to focus on high-end manufacturing, high and new technology, modern service industries, new energy and energy conservation and environmental protection industries, and invest in the central and western regions.

5, actively and steadily implement the "going global" strategy.

Domestic enterprises are encouraged to build processing bases, marketing networks and R & D centers overseas.

Comments: Wen Jiabao's trip to Guangzhou, the most noteworthy is to increase credit support to foreign trade enterprises.

Recently, the Chinese government has increased the financial support of small and micro enterprises, and now it needs to increase its support for foreign trade enterprises. If there is no systematic monetary policy loosening, the effect of resource regulation under total restriction may be very limited, so we still need to pay close attention to the change of monetary policy.

4. China Network reported that some media reported that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has basically approved the introduction of cross-border ETF in the mainland, which will be launched within the year after the formal announcement.

The 14 day of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said the statement was not true.

He said that cross-border ETF has not yet formally entered the administrative approval process, the program is still in the process of implementation.

Comment: the news about the approval of cross-border ETF is actually a market rumor disclosed by individual media after the single day surge of brokerage stocks last week. This may be one of the reasons for the rise of brokerage stocks. It may also be a reason for speculation afterwards, but in fact, cross-border ETF has limited direct impact on securities companies.

Now the securities and Futures Commission also denied this rumor, which is only a small episode in last week's market clamour.

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5. Xinhua reported that the property market is in a critical state of turning point recently. The news of the sudden rise in the first mortgage interest rate by the Beijing branch of China Construction Bank immediately aroused strong concern from both sides.

Zhu Xiaohuang, vice president of China Construction Bank, said in an interview earlier that monetary policy is tight and banks are facing the test of credit resource allocation.

Taking advantage of low capital occupation, CCB will not easily shrink mortgage loans.

"At present, the demand for personal mortgage loans is very large, and banks are still inclined to adjust the relationship between supply and demand by raising interest rates."

Comment: under the influence of tightening policy, scarce credit resources lead to more pricing power in the field of strong demand, and the credit regulation of the property market is to restrain the supply of credit. Therefore, in case of insufficient supply, banks continue to raise the cost of housing loans.

As credit resources have shrunk to a relatively low level, the overall impact of raising interest rates on the property market has been limited, but this is still a negative signal.

6. the securities times network reported that China's Ministry of Commerce issued the circular on issues related to cross border RMB direct investment issued in October 14th, stipulating that overseas investors (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan investors) can use direct foreign investment gained legally in direct investment activities, but they must not invest in securities, financial derivatives and entrusted loans.

Comment: the notice marks a step towards the liberalization of capital control in China.

Foreign direct investment in China can lead the RMB back to China, the main purpose is to promote China's economic development.

As a result of not engaging in securities investment, the direct impact on China's stock market is limited.

Comprehensive comment:

Last Friday, China's National Bureau of statistics and China's central bank released data showing that China's tight monetary policy is likely to have reached its limit no matter from the historical data of anti inflation effect or the growth rate of money supply.

However, this does not mean that the policy will change immediately, as it is necessary to consolidate the effectiveness of the policy.

M1's year-on-year growth rate has dropped to below 10%, which means that the market is likely to enter a relatively bottom stage. The relative duration and complexity of the underlying market depend on policy changes, and it is difficult to predict ahead of time.

But what is certain is that once the monetary policy turns signal, M1 will start to rebound from about 10%, and the market will come from the pressure of capital side or greatly reduce, and the fundamentals are expected to pick up gradually.

What we should do now is to wait patiently for policy signals to appear and select investment targets at the same time.