Wanda Futures: USDA Month Reported Sharp Drop In Cotton Prices

Overnight, the monthly report released by USDA shows the global 2011/12 year. Cotton yield Compared with September, it increased by 270 thousand tons to 27 million 40 thousand tons, while consumption decreased by 180 thousand tons to 24 million 900 thousand tons. In the same year, the output was larger than 2 million 140 thousand tons of consumption, and the end of the stock was increased from 640 thousand tons to 11 million 940 thousand tons. Although the US cotton production increased by 10 thousand tons to 3 million 620 thousand tons, China's output was reduced by 110 thousand tons to 7 million 290 thousand tons.

Contrary to market expectations, the report did not cut down on cotton production and global cotton production. Due to this negative factor, cotton rebounded sharply in the ICE cotton market on Wednesday. The main 1205 contract fell 2.96 cents to 100.51 cents / pound, and the lowest 99.67 cents / pound in the market, once again challenged the support of 99 cents / pound.

At present, the economic difficulties of Europe and the United States will continue to restrict consumption, and the future will be greater than supply. Cotton price remains It will continue to fall.

Technically, the ICE period of cotton harvest has fallen to the short-term average, and the main contract in December has once again challenged the support position of 99 cents / pound. Although the KD and MACD indicators continue to rise in a long way, the red flag of the MACD index is shortened, and the cotton price is weakened. In December, the contract will challenge 99 cents / pound support. If the support is lost, the downlink space will be opened, the downtrend will continue, otherwise it will continue the 99-103 cent / pound crossmalk area, and it is suggested that the long-term decline should be maintained.

USDA monthly report data is not ideal, the macro level is still weak, with the advent of the peak purchase, lint output began to increase, and downstream cotton mills and Trader The enthusiasm of replenishment is not high. Some enterprises began to try to make sexual intercourse. At the same time, from Wednesday's post positions, the rebound of cotton prices has been blocked by a large number of hedge sales, indicating that cotton companies are not optimistic about the future market. In this case, with the massive listing of lint output, the price of cotton and seed cotton will continue to fall in the future. Spot and Zheng cotton prices will challenge the support of 19800 yuan / ton purchase and storage price. It is recommended to keep the empty ideas unchanged, continue to increase the empty list on every rebound, pay attention to the 1205 contract 19800 yuan / ton supporting position and 20700 yuan / ton pressure level.