Top Down Stock Selection

　　 A shares The market's two-month "falling endlessly" trend has frustrated many investors. Especially those who believe in technology investors, if the short-term frequent operation, or loss will be more serious. Because, the market is not good, if you want to find the varieties that can rise against the trend in the overall down market, it is really like fishing for a needle in the sea. As a small amount of money investors, the best strategy now is to rest. If your stock is deep set, with the current point again cut meat, it is not necessary. According to a Securities researcher, he made a statistical analysis and found that when the Chinese stock market peaked at more than 6000 points in 2007, if a certain shareholder unfortunately bought at a high level, if he could insist on bringing the stock to the present, there was also a possibility of unwinding. Because, according to his statistics, about 44% of the stocks in the stock market at that time, even if they were bought at the highest point of the Shanghai Composite Index, there was also an opportunity to unwind.

Of course, it also depends on what kind of products you buy. If purely from the fundamental analysis, there are a few industries I am afraid that salted fish will not have a chance to turn over. One is the shipping industry and shipbuilding industry. These two industries are strong cycle stocks. If the world economy recovers, they will lead the recovery ahead of other industries. However, the current world economic situation is not optimistic. I am afraid the worst moment of the European crisis has not yet arrived. When the debts of the European pig five countries fall due and cannot be paid, the truly terrible time comes. If the boundary time conflict cannot be resolved, the euro system is likely to collapse. At present, the euro zone is the largest export destination of China's foreign trade. If the collapse of the euro will certainly have an impact on China's exports, then the depression of the shipping industry is inevitable. If the shipping industry is depressed, the shipbuilding industry will be dragged down. Now the new shipyards order It has already shown a sharp decrease. Therefore, the shipping industry and shipbuilding industry may not be prosperous before the world economy warms up.

The steel industry is also an industry that many securities analysts are not optimistic about. The main reason is that the iron and steel industry as a whole has excess capacity and the average profit margin of the industry is meager. Moreover, the growth pattern of China's economy will change in the future, that is, the growth mode mainly driven by investment and export will be replaced by consumption. In the future, the growth rate of large-scale infrastructure investment will be greatly slowed down. In addition to the factors mentioned above, such as the depression of shipbuilding industry, the demand growth space of steel market in the future will be extremely limited. Perhaps, some people will ask, isn't the government vigorously building affordable housing? This will create demand, thus driving the profit growth of related industries. Yes, the large-scale construction of affordable housing is indeed an investment driven measure. However, it should be noted that construction steel is a low-end product, and China's steel industry has a serious overcapacity in this low-end product. Generally speaking, indemnificatory housing construction belongs to the public welfare products invested by the government. Therefore, the construction of affordable housing must be decided by bidding, which will greatly reduce the profit space of iron and steel enterprises. At that time, there was a general medical insurance system of RMB 8.0/each in Anhui Province, and there was only an injection price of 8.0 yuan per medicine in Anhui Province. This shows a truth, in the market full competition of goods, if excess capacity, enterprises do not have much profit space.

Similar to the above, the medium and long-term prospects of cement industry and machinery industry are not optimistic. The first reason is that these two industries are also industries with overcapacity and full marketization, and the average profit margin of the industries is likely to decline gradually; the second is that the state will no longer make large-scale investment in 2008 in the future. In addition, the local debt of local governments has not been effectively resolved, so the investment impulse of local governments will be greatly suppressed. Under the situation that the investment growth slows down, even if it will show a downward trend in the next few years, the future growth of construction machinery, cement, building materials, steel and other industries with high correlation with infrastructure investment will be affected by the general environment restrict 。

The power industry, to be exact, is a thermal power generation enterprise. Under the policy environment of liberalizing the coal price and controlling the electricity price, the enterprise can hardly make any money. It is said that some time ago, the five major domestic power groups jointly submitted a letter asking for price increases. According to the official reply, this requirement is out of date at this time point. It can be imagined that CPI has been running at a high level now. At this time, if the electricity price rises again, CPI will surely go up to a higher level, and the situation will be quite complicated. Considering the overall situation, it is necessary for power generation enterprises to make some sacrifices. So, as investors understand this situation, should be able to make the most in line with their own interests of the choice.

The above is the so-called "top-down" stock selection idea of institutional investors. As a retail investor, you don't have to study every industry thoroughly. But if you want to gain something in securities investment, you should know a little about some stock selection ideas.