The Weak Market Of The Gem Is &Nbsp; Star Fund Managers Expose Themselves To Making Money.

Last week, 29 ETF funds continued. expand 1 billion 233 million copies

Although fund managers have repeatedly stressed that the blue chip stocks have valuation advantages and margin of safety in the two quarter, but in fact, in the two quarter, the fund managers of blue chips in the second quarter were hit harder in the subsequent market. As the index continued to oscillate, the blue chip weight plate stocks generally showed a sharp fall, which triggered a sharp fall in the net value of the fund. While fund managers lose their blue chips, the GEM board, which has always been considered safe, has acted as a life-saving pill to prevent further collapse of the fund's net worth.

Blue chip slump fund

Since the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by more than 10% since the end of July on Friday, close to last July's low index, investors' confidence in heavyweights has been greatly frustrated, and the direct impact on fund managers is a general slump in core portfolios of portfolios.

"This adjustment may exceed the investment expectation of the fund. A considerable number of fund managers made a move to increase their holdings in the two quarter. Since the three quarter, these heavyweights have been in a doldrums, which in a way means that fund managers' investment behavior in the two quarter is wrong and ineffective. Some market people expressed this to reporters.

Take China South car (601766) with more fund managers, Panzhihua Iron and steel vanadium and Changan automobile (000625) as an example, China South car has fallen more than 35% after July, while Changan automobile has dropped more than 16% in the same period, and the vanadium and vanadium of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co. has also exceeded 12%. In the construction machinery sector, the fund managers concentrated in the two quarter of the mountain pushing shares (000680) since July, a drop of nearly 25%. According to the semi annual report disclosed by Shan push shares, the list of the top ten tradable shares of shareholders is almost exclusively a fund company. Among them, China post core optimization fund and China post core growth fund hold two shares at the end of the two quarter. The Chinese postal fund has become the largest fund company holding the company. The two quarter investment obviously significantly affected the net performance of the fund. The investment has now shrunk by more than 200 million yuan at the end of the two quarter of this year.

even if it is Investment The heavyweights chosen by the director and star fund managers can not escape the doom of the market. Yinhua investment director Lu Wenjun managed the Yinhua core value fund held by FAW car (000800) also appeared in the two quarter after a decrease of about 15%, of which Yinhua core value fund at the end of the two quarter held the FAW car close to 49 million shares, the GF market growth fund also held 38 million shares, it is worth mentioning that the GF fund net value has been dragged down by the big stock market. As of September 6th, GF net value loss has reached 23%.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund star fund manager and research director, he bin management two funds also encountered the challenge of individual weight stocks. Morgan Stanley Huaxin resources preferred fund and Morgan Stanley Huaxin outstanding growth fund heavyweight group (000627) has also become the fund manager's heartache landmine stocks. The listed company of the chemical sector dropped more than 19% after July, and the above two funds are the largest and second largest tradable shareholders of Tiemao group. As at the end of the two quarter of this year, the two funds managed by Ho bin hold about 17 million shares of Tiemao group. Since the three quarter of this year, fund managers have lost their hands in the field of heavyweights, and China's heavyweight heavyweight development (000537) has also been hit by the market. The development of Guangyu development last week has set a new low price this year. This year's decline has exceeded 28%. The Huaxia dividend fund and the Huaxia steady growth fund hold more than 19 million shares of Guangyu development.

The continued downturn in the heavyweight market is not only a contusion of the public fund, but even some star private equity managers are helpless against the current weak investment. Luo Weiguang's new Guangdong value fund is also suffering from the lessons of the landmine stocks in the weight sector - the 000533 of the private equity fund, whose products are heavily loaded, is down more than 42% this year. According to the information disclosed by Wanjia Le, as of the end of the two quarter of this year, Guangdong's new value held more than 14 million shares of Wanjia Le, and such a big decline in heavily loaded stocks obviously significantly dragged down the net performance of private equity funds.

　　 Growth stocks Or become a life-saving pill.

In the three quarter since the heavyweight of the valuation advantage has dragged down the net performance of the fund, some growth stocks of the fund managers in the two quarter have brought positive returns to the fund, although growth stocks represented by the growth enterprise board do not seem to have reasonable investment logic for most fund managers. But if valuation is not the primary factor in stock selection, this so-called reasonable investment logic is not important in itself. For investors, adapting to the trend itself is an investment logic.

"Investing first is to respect the market, and when the market proves that my judgment is wrong, I will correct it in time." He Bin, director of research at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund, believes that when the market trend is found to be inconsistent with its own judgment, it should not choose to complain about the wrong market, but prepare the remedy plan. Similar to Ho Bin's point of view, Wang Zhan Qiang, chief investment officer of Cinda Australian investment bank, also pointed out to the Shanghai Securities Journal that the choice of the market should be respected when investing in the growth enterprise market. When the preference of the market is biased towards underestimating the blue chips and heavyweights, they should be promptly removed from the industry board, and when the market prefers growth and small and medium value market varieties, we should pay attention to this natural choice of the market.

Therefore, the preference of the market has made obvious difference in the fund managers' different stock selection strategies during the two quarter. In the A share market since the three quarter of this year, while the weight share is sluggish, fund managers have made great achievements in small and medium growth stocks such as the growth enterprise market.

As a result, star fund managers lost their weight share, but they also got compensation from gem and small board. Although the Shanghai composite index continued to oscillate lower after July, a number of GEM stocks that Wang Yawei intervened in the two quarter had generally seen a good rise in the wave market. The main business of intelligent spanportation business, Yi Hua Lu (300212), was a positive return of 38% in the three quarter. Wang Yawei managed the Huaxia market and Huaxia strategy fund at the end of the two quarter, together with Yi Hua Lu 700 thousand shares, and became the largest tradable shareholder of the stock market. Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund Research Director He Bin intervened in Hai Da (002583) main business also points to intelligent communications, intelligent spanportation, the small and medium-sized listed companies rose three after the three quarter of this year.

Small and medium value growth stocks that still maintain positive returns since July have been found everywhere in fund managers' portfolios. Songcheng shares (300144) has increased by 16% since July of this year, and the Chinese advantage growth fund managed by Huaxia Fund Investment Director Liu Wendong holds 4 million 470 thousand shares of Songcheng stock. Societe Generale social responsibility fund, fund Hanxing and Hua An Hongli fund held 300146 yuan, which has maintained a 23% increase since July, and the three funds held more than 4 million 200 thousand shares at the end of the two quarter of this year. INVESCO the Great Wall fund heavily loaded gem varieties "Hengtai AI Pu (300157)" after July this year, more than 33% of the positive earnings, the new the Great Wall Growth Fund in the two quarter held Hengtai AI about 2 million 900 thousand shares.

Inflation is the key to allocation.

The industry configuration report of the Ministry of Finance and fund research in September pointed out that the most influential variables for the market now come from the obvious fall in investment and inflation. The market has experienced three adjustments of liquidity, mood and profitability. Only when we see the obvious adjustment of investment and CPI (national consumer price index) will we really expect to see the bottom. At that time, whether endogenous impetus or policy changes can really be expected, there may be a more obvious adjustment before the market.

In view of the prevailing market expectation that inflation will be mild downward and the economy will not fall rapidly, the Fund believes that market consensus expectations may be too linear. Past history has shown that inflation in China is always volatile because of too many speculative factors. When inflation expectations do not disappear, inflation always exceeds expectations.

"Because inflation is at a high level, real interest rates will remain low, which is supportive for growth stocks. In this environment, some growth stocks will still have significant excess returns, and the contradictions will be changed from paying attention to prices to the amount of attention. The financing fund said that if inflation fell back after a short period of decline, there would be a three month interval because of the tail up factor. There was little room for profit reduction, and investment goods would not fall back rapidly. Fluctuations would still exist, but the trend would gradually decline. In this stage, the operation of the band is very difficult, so it is difficult for big finance to get the opportunity of trend. The Financing Fund pointed out that two sets of indicators could be observed in September: first, the short-term interest rate trend in the middle of September. If it is stable, growth stocks are expected to be better than the traditional undervaluation in the real interest rate environment. But when inflation continues to release risk, growth stocks face greater risks. The two is the recovery of sales volume of steel, building materials and construction machinery in mid 9 months.

But the continued decline of heavyweights also makes some fund managers more inclined to choose blue chips with valuation advantages. Liu Jianwei, manager of the industry's rotation fund manager, believes that although China's economic fundamentals are generally optimistic, the current dynamic P / E ratio is only 13 times, but the A share market has been in the doldrums for two years, and this contrast is a great blow to the confidence of A investors. At present, the size of A shares has been quite large, and the total market value of 2400 points has exceeded the total market value at 6124 o'clock in 2007. Macro policy determines the A share market trend, especially monetary policy, liquidity becomes one of the most important factors that affect the market trend.

Liu Jianwei further believes that the CPI growth of 6.2% in August is in line with market expectations. The worst of the inflation situation is over. But in the next few months, CPI will still be at a high level. It is expected that the policy shift will be earlier. However, a comprehensive analysis shows that monetary policy will not be tighter. Since the adjustment in November last year, A shares basically have no systematic investment opportunities, and the lack of money making effect is not conducive to the development of the stock market. Liu Jianwei pointed out that the future market will still be dominated by consolidation. Considering that there are not many opportunities for systematic investment, more defensive varieties will be chosen, such as resources, medicine, food and beverage industries, and, of course, a defensive bank share.

However, in view of the current market preferences, the earning effect of growth stocks makes more fund managers have to pay attention to the structural opportunities existing in the market, and respect the important logic of market or investment. "Investment and exports represented by real estate in the past ten years are the main driving force for China's economy. In the next ten years, China's economic growth should focus on consumption, manufacturing upgrading and emerging industries. But in the past 2-3 years, there will be no big market, only structural opportunities. " Li Wei, a well chosen fund manager of GF's manufacturing industry, believes that structural opportunities depend on growth stocks, and it is difficult to earn profits from the valuation of enterprises, but it should be profitable from the growth of enterprises. The direction of growth stocks is equivalent to the direction of economic spanformation. (