Textile And Clothing In The Vacuum Era

From the medium-term trend, we believe that the growth rate of textile and clothing consumption will oscillate slowly down in the future, and the newspaper shows that the quality of the growth of textile and garment retail enterprises has declined.

Next year, with the low price of raw materials such as cotton prices, the growth rate of textile and clothing sales is expected to pick up, so as to realize the pformation of volume and price. Taking into account that the negative impact of high price on consumers' consumption will gradually weaken, we expect consumption growth to slow down in 2012.

The purchase and storage measures were launched in September 8th: the temporary cotton purchasing and storage measures began to be implemented in the near future (since September 8th, the storage and storage were not restricted by quantity and kept until March 31, 2012). With the temporary stabilization of the cotton price in the early stage, we should follow up the implementation of the purchase and storage, especially the funds, and observe the arrival of the traditional peak season.

Investment suggestion

Plate depth callback, the adjustment of high-quality stocks is the opportunity to buy: following the first two weeks of the plate into the dull period, this week textile and clothing sector deep callback, home textile enterprises with larger callback intensity earlier this week, rebounded more vigorously; and the more active theme stocks had a big decline for two consecutive weeks. According to historical experience, we believe that the whole plate has entered a deep callback period, the quality retail stocks, the future performance of the retail sector to maintain rapid growth is high certainty, the current adjustment is the opportunity to buy high-quality stocks.

Current valuation: under the premise of determining the performance growth, from the valuation level, on the one hand, with the overall callback of the plate, the valuation center has declined; on the other hand, the profit forecast of the rapid growth of the quality retailers' future performance does not have room for reduction.

Plate proposal: next week we suggest that defense is the main factor, and the adjustment of high quality stocks is the opportunity to buy.

Fundamentally speaking, we are right.

Industry and company news

Industry news: in August, the export of textile and clothing was 25 billion 451 million US dollars, a decrease of 2.51% compared with that in August. In August, the total retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 21.9% over the same period last year. In August, the added value of China's textile industry above designated size increased by 7.6%.

Industry attention next week: focus on the order situation of brand enterprises.

Company news: Bank of China

Price fluctuation of raw materials

Cotton price: Cotton 328 this weekend, the price increases by 1.33% to 19620 yuan, to maintain the previous view: theoretically cotton is 18000-20000 yuan (328 level) more reasonable; in the 4 quarter cotton prices may stabilize at 20 thousand yuan or so.

Chemical fiber: entering the peak season, the price rise of chemical fiber is in line with historical practice.

The recent rebound in prices of viscose, polyester and cotton lint rebounded on the one hand because of the loss of the whole industry. On the other hand, the demand for high season demand is higher. If the demand in the peak season is not as good as we expected, the price increase of sticky gum may not be sustainable.