"Rainbow.2011 China Textile Market Forum" October Landing Fabric Exhibition

Jointly organized by the China Textile Association, China Textile Information Center and Frankfurt Exhibition (Hongkong) Co., Ltd., Tianhong Textile Group Co., Ltd. is named after the exclusive support of Jiangsu Sunshine Group Co., Ltd., as well as the "Tianhong 2011 China" jointly supported by professional associations and other relevant institutions. Textile market The forum, as one of the important agenda of the 2011 China international textile fabrics and accessories (Qiu Dong) fair, will be held in Shanghai in October 19, 2011.

"Tianhong 2011 China Textile Market Forum" takes "finding a new market path - the world and China" as the theme. At that time, leaders from the global and Chinese government departments, trade associations, economics, management, financial institutions, securities companies, enterprises and institutions of higher learning, experts, entrepreneurs and media will all be present. The forum will focus on topics such as topic presentation and dialogue to explore ways to expand the market's new path in the current complex environment.

Those who do not seek the overall situation are not enough to seek a field. This forum brings together industry elites and collusion with the development of the industry. The forum will focus on the theme of "finding a new market path" and understand the global economic development trend and analyze China's own characteristics. Finally, it will provide guidance and advice for the healthy development of the textile and garment industry.

Global economy:

Recovery is heavy.

"Sickness comes like a mountain, but disease goes away." The recent financial crisis, which began in 2008, is a metaphor for a serious illness in the global economy. The crisis has dragged the global economy to the bottom, and the world's major economies are slowly recovering, and the slow economic recovery of the slow recovery is even more uncertain.

The US GDP contracted by 5.1% in the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009, the highest contraction since World War II. In 2011, the US economy grew by only 0.4% in the first quarter, the lowest quarterly growth since the end of the current recession. Referring to the 1.3% increase in the second quarter, the real growth of the US economy in the first half of this year is only 0.8%. On August 26th, Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the recovery of the US economy from the crisis was less than expected, and it still did not return to pre crisis levels, and the domestic unemployment rate remained at 9%.

As the largest economy, the economic situation of the United States will have a major impact on the global economic recovery. In the early August, the US raised the national debt ceiling, and then the us long term sovereign credit rating was downgraded. A series of changes led to a gloomy global stock market, and international oil prices led to a sharp fall in commodity prices. Even economists are beginning to worry that the global economy is likely to have a two dip, and whether the new round of economic slowdown will be revived.

Countries such as Europe and Japan Economics The situation has further deepened people's worries about the global economy. The main debt crisis is still dragging the pace of economic recovery in Europe. The European debt crisis seems to be in a desperate mood. It is no longer a small country such as Greece and Portugal. It has also led to downgrade fears in big economies like Italy and Spain, or even the second largest economy in the euro zone. Although the European Central Bank has begun to lend a helping hand, insiders say the move is also unable to prevent the deterioration of the crisis in the short term.

Japan has been in the three quarter since the fourth quarter of last year. Gross domestic product Negative growth. At the same time, domestic debt is rising. As of June this year, the debt reached 943 trillion and 810 billion yen, which is 200% of GDP in Japan. Coupled with the impact of the great earthquake on the national economy, it will take some time for Japan to rebuild itself and to recover its economy.

The developing countries represented by the BRICs have been under tremendous inflationary pressure. Inflation in India is close to the two figure. In June, India's overall inflation rate was 9.44%. Russia's CPI index also exceeds 9%, and Brazil's CPI level has also been higher than the government's target 6.5%.

Looking at the global economy, the recovery of the developed economies is not as strong as expected, the industrial chain rupture caused by Japan's earthquake, Europe's lingering debt crisis and the high unemployment rate in the United States have dragged down the pace of global economic recovery. Meanwhile, the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, such as oil and other commodity prices, exacerbated the economic recovery. Under such a complicated environment and uncertain future, can China's economy be independent?

China industry

Pressure ahead

After the crisis, governments, including China, took active fiscal and monetary policies, which made the global economy at a stage of high inflation. For China and other developing countries, the continuous quantitative easing policy of developed economies such as the United States has brought import pressure to imports. For example, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded 2 trillion and 800 billion dollars at the end of last year, and the pressure of imported currency increased continuously.

In the market economy, enterprises actively arrange the production and operation through the market signals released by the price. Therefore, all the real economies, including the textile industry, want prices to remain relatively stable so as to meet the business expectations of the business. And inflation often leads to price departure from supply and demand fundamentals and sharp fluctuations, thus confusing the audio-visual of business operators, and will impact the real economy.

At the same time, under the background of inflation, the price of assets such as land and houses is rising constantly, which makes the speculative economy become more and more intense. It makes the capital and labor force depreciate relatively, and then affects the investment of enterprises in scientific research and development, resulting in the suppression of the real economy.

Besides, there are still some other specific constraints on China's real economy. First, China's macroeconomic policy continues to put pressure on the real economy. This year, in order to control high inflation, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate for six consecutive times, raising interest rates for three consecutive times. At the same time, the central government has also intensified the efforts to clean up the local government financing platform and control overcapacity. This series of tight financial and monetary policies will cause huge constraints to the investment and financing of enterprises.

Secondly, from the external environment, China's export oriented economy is difficult to follow. At present, all countries around the world are trying to protect their employment needs, resulting in the rise of trade protectionism, and the export of Chinese products will face higher trade barriers. At the same time, after the RMB exchange rate reform process is resumed, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is expected to increase, and the fluctuation of exchange rate will increase, which will also adversely affect the export of products.

Finally, resource and environmental constraints are further enhanced. After the rapid development of "11th Five-Year", there are now widespread resource problems such as inadequate construction land, high pollution discharge and serious environmental damage. In order to further solve the problem of sustainable development, from the "12th Five-Year" period, the state will implement more stringent land use policies and pollution discharge standards, and the types of pollutants that limit emissions will also increase. Thus, the development space and emission space of some areas will be compressed.

As a traditional industry with comparative advantages in China, what will be the development dilemma of the textile and garment industry under such a macro economic background? Where is the way out for the industry? {page_break}

Textile industry

The road of spanformation is endless.

With the change of macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, the three key elements of capital, raw materials and labor market change is undoubtedly the key issue for the textile industry to face.

Since 2008, the central government has implemented the monetary and fiscal policy of "double looseness". In 2011, the monetary policy became stable, and the positive fiscal policy gradually faded out. The "Feng Shui rotation" in the capital market has a huge impact on the financing environment and capital chain of domestic enterprises. As a traditional industry, textile enterprises will get unfair treatment when they apply for bank loans compared with some high-tech industries. This requires textile enterprises to actively seek for upgrading and spanformation, from pure processing industry to comprehensive service direction, and seize the two ends of "smile curve".

Compared with the capital market, the textile raw material market is more thrilling. Cotton rose from 15 thousand yuan per ton in March last year to 32 thousand yuan per ton in November. Driven by cotton, the prices of alternative raw materials such as synthetic fibers are also rising. The rising price of raw materials has brought enormous pressure to the downstream textile enterprises, and many companies have shut down their cars. However, in the middle of this year, cotton prices went down all the way, and fell below 20 thousand yuan in early August, which is currently maintained at around 19 thousand yuan per ton. The sharp rise and fall of cotton prices has brought huge uncertainties to textile enterprises. Downstream orders are erratic and business risks are increasing. In the future, how to avoid risks, whether enterprises should try raw material futures and capital operation are all questions that textile industry needs to discuss.

The rising cost of manpower is a common problem faced by all industries in China, and the situation is more severe for the labor-intensive textile industry. Reflected in the enterprise level, it is the emergence of "labor shortage" and the rise of workers' wages. According to the data, the per capita wages of textile enterprises in the southeastern coastal areas of China have increased by about 20%. According to Zhou Haijiang, chairman of the red bean group, the group's wage level was raised by 49.6% in 2010. Even in the case of rising wages, many enterprises still have difficulty recruiting workers. Under the background of "demographic dividend era", how to realize the new development mode of textile enterprises is also a topic of common concern.

In addition, the global economic downturn and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate have made textile enterprises abandon the traditional mode of export. The more stringent policies of national energy conservation and emission reduction have made textile enterprises bear huge environmental costs; there are still some surplus production capacity, brand awareness and low value-added products in textile industry. In the critical period of "China's textile industry" changing from strong to strong in the 12th Five-Year, this is a key issue that can not be avoided and should be solved urgently.

Facing the complicated economic environment at home and abroad, China's textile industry should focus on the future and follow the trend of the times to find suitable development paths. At the same time, industry colleagues still need to learn from each other, share information and actively open up new market space. And efforts to create such an "exchange, cooperation, sharing, win-win" industry platform, is the "Rainbow 2011 China Textile Market Forum" the direction of efforts.