Research Shows That China'S Macroeconomic Operation Risks Are Still Controllable.

According to the index value, the index divides economic operation risk into five levels: no risk, risk concern, risk, high risk and high risk, so as to directly reflect the possible operation of macro-economy in the future.

The research shows that the overall risk of macroeconomic operation in 2011 has increased compared with 2010.

According to each sub index, the first quarter of 2011 was adjusted to 32.23, and the second quarter risk value was 32.29. The risk value of the third quarter of 2011 is 34.97, and the fourth quarter risk value is 35.15.

Overall, the risk level is rising in the next two quarters.

But the overall risk level is still in a controllable state.

Due to 2011

Consumer goods in the second quarter of 2011

The overall growth rate of imports and exports in 2011 will be significantly lower than that in 2010.

In the second quarter of 2011, the main factors affecting China's imports and exports were mainly the fluctuation of international commodity prices, the turmoil in some countries in the Middle East and North Africa, the continued appreciation of the renminbi, and the continuous emphasis on increasing imports by the Chinese government.

In the total growth of foreign trade in 2011, the growth rate of imports will be relatively high. This will lead to a continuous decline in China's foreign trade surplus and the growth rate of foreign trade volume will also decline to a certain extent.

However, the international market prices of China's imports and exports of energy and energy commodities have been relatively high, which indicates to a certain extent that imports face higher level of price risk.

In the second quarter of 2011, the risk of import and export growth remained at a low level and was at a "risk free" level.

The risk of import and export growth in the third quarter is expected to be 3, which is in the "risk free" rating interval. The risk level of import and export in the fourth quarter is "risk concern".

China in the first quarter of 2011

In terms of employment, because China has been tightening for a long time, the restraining effect on domestic demand will gradually appear, and there is also greater uncertainty from external demand. Therefore, these two aspects will be unfavorable factors affecting full employment.

Because the risk of total demand will increase in the future, we will adjust the risk of employment accordingly.

In the second quarter of 2011, the employment risk value was 18, and the risk value in the third quarter was 19. It was a "risk free" level, and the risk value in the fourth quarter was 21.

Due to the impact of domestic inflation pressure and the expectation of RMB appreciation in the short term, the possibility of further expansion of import scale is greater, and the trade surplus will remain at a low level or even a small deficit. Therefore, net exports have little effect on the increment of foreign exchange reserves.

Combined with many factors, the incremental pressure on foreign exchange reserves in the next few quarters in 2011 is expected to increase slightly compared with 2010 in the absence of other shocks.

We adjusted the value of foreign exchange reserves to 77 in the first quarter of 2011, and the risk value in the second quarter was 75.

The risk values of foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter and the fourth quarter are 76 and 77, respectively, and are in the "high risk" range.

The momentum of China's rapid economic growth has provided a solid tax base for the increase of fiscal revenue. In the case of great changes in the central fiscal expenditure, the financial risk is mainly manifested in the debt risk of local governments. Moreover, from 2011 onward, local debt will enter the debt repayment concentration period, and the risk of local fiscal debt will increase significantly, but this will not cause a great impact on the financial situation of the central government.

In the second quarter of 2011, the fiscal deficit was 20 and the risk rating was "risk-free". It is estimated that the risk of fiscal deficits in the third quarter and the fourth quarter will enter the "risk concern" range.

It is estimated that the growth rate of loans for financial institutions will continue to slow in 2011, and the risk of further expansion from the balance of loans is less likely.

But over the past few years, the stock of loans has been larger. Taking into account the growth rate of loan balances and the balance of loans, we have adjusted the risk balance of financial institutions' loans to 53 in the first quarter of 2011, and the risk value of the second quarter is 52. We expect that the third quarter and fourth quarter of the risk will be 50.

Domestic money supply and global liquidity are relatively adequate, while domestic real estate investment has been suppressed. We believe that the possibility of reactivation of the stock market in the second half of 2011 will increase.

Accordingly, the risk value of the stock market in the first quarter of 2011 was adjusted to 60, and the risk value in the second quarter was 61, which is in the "risk" interval. The risk values for the third quarter and the fourth quarter are 65 and 66, respectively, and are in the "high risk" range.

Based on the above forecast results, this report will maintain the basic judgment of the last quarter report on the change of the future macroeconomic policy. In 2011, China's macro policy will tend to be stable in general. In 2011, the relative positive fiscal policy will emphasize the promotion of industrial structure adjustment and economic "inclusive growth", compared with the monetary policy of 2009 and 2010, the main tone of the monetary policy in 2011 is to prevent the inflation from aggravating, and more emphasis on managing inflation expectations and regulating the liquidity of excess. The basic posture of monetary policy is neutral or tight.

Specifically, it is expected that China's monetary policy will basically continue its tightening yardstick since the fourth quarter of 2010, that is, moderate, moderate and tight liquidity to recover excess liquidity, but the frequency of policy will gradually decrease.

In the determination of stable economic growth and effective control of inflation, the frequency of raising the required deposit reserve rate or raising interest rates in the third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2011 will be significantly reduced. If the inflation in the third quarter of 2011 remains on the rise, the PBC is likely to continue to raise the statutory reserve requirement rate in the third quarter, but considering that the increase in interest rates will lead to further inflow of hot money overseas, and at present, China has seen signs of increasing tension in the capital chain of small and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, raising interest rates will have a greater negative impact on the real economy, and the monetary authorities will be cautious in raising interest rates.