In The First Half Of The Year, RMB New Loans Fell &Nbsp, Tightening Monetary Policy Or Slowing Down.

RMB loans increased by 4 trillion and 170 billion yuan in the first half of 2011, up less than 449 billion 700 million yuan from the same period last year.

Market analysis believes that in the second half of the year, the central bank will still be the first target for preventing inflation and stabilizing the economy, but the pace of regulation will slow down and the intensity will be weakened.

RMB's new loans fall in the first half

According to the latest figures released by the people's Bank of China in July 12th, new RMB loans and broad money (M2) increased in June.

Among them, RMB loans increased by 633 billion 900 million yuan in June, an increase of 20 billion 700 million yuan compared with the same period last year. At the end of 6, the M2 balance was 78 trillion and 80 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% over the same period last year, 0.8 percentage points higher than the end of 5.

Citing Hongkong's Wen Wei Po report, market analysis shows that the growth rate of M2 in June is higher than that in the general market, and the average amount of deposits is due to the maturity of financial products. The increase in new loans is 82 billion 300 million yuan in that month.

However, in the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 4 trillion and 170 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 449 billion 700 million yuan compared with the previous year.

In July 6th, the central bank announced the third increase in interest rates during the year. After adjustment, the annual interest rate of RMB deposits of financial institutions reached 3.5% and the interest rate of one year was 6.56%.

In addition, since the beginning of 2010, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio for the 12 time.

At present, the deposit rate of large financial institutions in the mainland has reached 21.5% historical highs.

Slow growth in mid long term loans or hints

It is worth noting that according to the twenty-first Century economic report, the structural pformation of new Renminbi loans is reflecting the difference between the macro economy and the cold economy.

Of the 633 billion 900 million RMB loans added in June, 212 billion 500 million yuan was medium and long term loans, which accounted for 33.9% of the total new month's total loans. The medium and long term loans that had been high in the past two years had fallen to the lowest level after the financial crisis; short-term loans increased by 389 billion 800 million yuan in the month, an increase of 160 billion over the previous month, accounting for more than 60% of the total new increase; and the financing of negotiable instruments has been growing steadily for three consecutive months.

In this regard, Bank of communications [5.58 0.18% shares, E Yongjian, a researcher at the financial research center, analyzed that public short term loans and bills financing continued to increase and the number of medium and long term loans increased little. This shows that corporate borrowing is mostly used to meet short-term liquidity demand, rather than for long-term investment. It is one of the signs of slowing economic growth and decreasing profit expectations.

In addition, household loans increased by 239 billion 800 million yuan, although a slight increase from last month, but this is mainly attributable to the increase in short-term loans.

The slow growth of long-term loans for residents reflects the continuing downturn in the real estate market.

"The slowdown in economic growth in the second half of this year is a foregone conclusion.

At the same time, despite the general trend of decline, the inflationary pressure of the future is still great under the influence of global liquidity and the recent sharp rise in pork prices.

E Yongjian analysis.

second half

Earlier, Premier Wen Jiabao mentioned that the task of the second half of the year is to prevent inflation and steady growth.

In this regard, market analysis generally believes that in managing inflation expectations and ensuring economic growth, the central bank will remain the top priority.

Therefore, despite the decline in new credit in the first half of the year, it is still hard to say that monetary tightening policy will be loosened.

However, Zuo Xiaolei, chief consultant of galaxy securities, said that the central bank may not adjust the deposit reserve ratio as frequently as in the first half of the year, but it will also appropriately withdraw funds through the open market and other measures. In general, it will maintain the control of liquidity and make appropriate adjustments to the interest rate level.

Bank of communications also expects monetary policy to maintain a "stable" overall tone unchanged, but the pace of regulation will slow down, the intensity has weakened.

The mainland's June consumer price index (CPI), which was released earlier, showed a 36 month high of CPI.

Southern Weekend network quoted experts analysis, because price pressure has not seen obvious decline in the three quarter, CPI in July will remain at a high level, more than 6%.