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China'S Economy Is Hard To "Hard Landing" &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Commodity Differentiation Intensifies.

2011/5/24 10:17:00 97

Along with the decline in economic data and foreign exchange growth in April, many people began to panic again, and speculated on whether the Chinese economy would hit the bottom two times.

It is just in time to catch up with the stock market.

commodity

Plummeting, as if 08 years of the script will be re staged.

Objectively speaking, this is purely "one-sided". The possibility of so-called "hard landing" exists only in theory.

Looking back on the next 08 years, with the bursting of asset bubbles, the economies of various countries have declined to varying degrees. The growth rate of GDP has obviously slowed down. Even Britain, France, Germany and the United States GDP have even suffered a negative growth. Both CPI and PPI have turned negative. The former inflation has suddenly become deflation, the enterprises are overwhelmed, and they have been closed down, and the unemployment rate has soared rapidly, and has achieved new heights.

From the data point of view, the European and American economies did encounter a "hard landing" impact.

Looking at the performance of China in the same period, although the economic growth has dropped to a certain level, in the 08 year, the GDP growth rate remained at a high level of 9.6% for the whole year, slightly down to 9.2% in 09 years, and reached a two digit growth rate last year.

And towns

unemployment rate

At the highest level, only about 4.3%, although the actual situation may be higher than the statistics, but with the opening of the 4 trillion investment project, the unemployment rate immediately returned to the level of 07 years.

More importantly, although China's stock market has been hit hard, its price is stable, and there is no major crisis in the whole financial system. It can be said that the financial tsunami has passed smoothly for 08 years and successfully avoided a "hard landing".

At present, a series of chain problems triggered by high inflation has aroused the debate whether China will experience a "hard landing".

Proponents believe that high inflation has reduced people's desire for consumption. Data show that in the first 4 months of this year, the total consumption of society is indeed declining.

At the same time, the monetary tightening policy in the past six months has had a huge negative impact on SMEs. If management does not change the existing monetary policy, there will be a collapse of SMEs at any time.

In addition, due to the strong investment in the past two years, has caused a certain degree of overcapacity, the second quarter to the third quarter, the inventory problem will gradually emerge, to the growth rate has slowed down the Chinese economy again a heavy blow.

However, the author thinks that

China's economy

The possibility of a hard landing is zero in real life.

Although the above mentioned problems exist, these are not enough to hinder China's economic development.

First of all, the government explicitly proposed policies and policies to increase people's income in the 12th Five-Year plan, and has recently been studying how to raise the threshold of personal tax. With the continuous improvement of income, consumption growth is just around the corner.

Secondly, since 2010, three words of "shortage of migrant workers" have been appearing in various media and newspapers.

The root cause is the continuous promotion of China's urbanization process, which reduces the supply of migrant workers.

In the "12th Five-Year plan", it is also clearly pointed out that in the next five years, China's urbanization will increase from the current 47% to 51%.

This will provide great potential for China's future consumption.

Third, many people believe that the fall in house prices will cause a great stir in China's capital market.

In fact, not necessarily, because today's high housing prices have made the property market and ordinary people out of the relationship, but a few people play a game.

With the vigorous launch of affordable housing, the property market has a meeting point with ordinary people. It is believed that the negative impact on the real economy caused by commercial housing can be well offset by the stimulus of affordable housing.

Fifth, the slowdown in total trade growth is still increasing.

Due to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the protection of domestic and foreign enterprises from Europe and the United States, the total growth rate of China's exports has gradually slowed down.

But we can see from the data that the year-on-year increase is still positive.

Overall, the current economic difficulties in China are "labor pains", and this "labor pains" stem from the side effects of the prescription of money tightening.

At this point, we must not neglect the overall interests due to side effects.

The development of China's future consumption potential will very well drive the growth of enterprises and solve the inventory problems; and the increasing investment in affordable housing will also successfully cancel the economic shock caused by fluctuations in commodity housing prices.

Throughout history, the economy has been developing in the unbalance.

Exaggerating any aspect is irrational. We should treat the issue of economic development dialectically and dynamically from the overall perspective, instead of analyzing it unilaterally and statically.

Therefore, the author believes that the risk of "hard landing" of China's economy is unlikely to happen in real life.

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Combined with the trend of commodity prices, we can easily find that it is highly related to the trend of China's economy.

The soft landing of China's economy in the first half of 2010 resulted in a sharp adjustment in commodities. Many varieties fell by more than 30%, or even 50%. Then, in the second half of the year, China's economy grew stronger and stronger, and the commodity market was a vigorous bull market. I remember that the commodity bear market was always heard at the time, but it turned out that the trend of commodity prices was not based on people's wishes and guesses, but in accordance with the laws of economic objective development.

Since the Spring Festival this year, a series of domestic tightening policies, including the inflation control measures of emerging countries such as India, have caused the market to worry again about the economy. The commodity prices have fallen sharply, and the drop is more than last year. At the moment, the commodity ox bear competition is once again in the market.

Since the second half of last year, the management level has increased the reserve ratio, and the trend of commodities has been differentiated.

At present, the growth rate of foreign exchange has declined, and the US dollar rebound has led to the market's concern that foreign capital is flowing out of China.

The bottom of agricultural products is clear, but the bottom of industrial products fails, or will usher in a two dip.

However, I still believe that the "hard landing of China's economy" is absolutely an unexpected event that can not be expected. After all, China's economic regulation and control is in the hands of our government, and our government knows better how to regulate our economic problems with Chinese medicine instead of Western medicine. This is based on Zhou Xiaochuan's speech at the Davos forum this year.