Temporary Signs Of Stabilization In Cotton Market

　 Since February, Zheng cotton has set a historical high of 34870 yuan / ton, and the price dropped down to 31%.

At present, the price has hit the low point of November 2010, but at the low point of 24200 yuan / ton, there is frequent cash support, and the market is temporarily showing signs of stabilization. In this regard, I believe that the current price is only a short-term technical rebound, long-term cotton prices remain weak.

Cotton prices continue to fall, hitting a long buy, from a technical point of view. Rebound demand The first target is expected to be near the gap of 26000 yuan / ton in the previous period. However, the short-term rebound trend is still hard to get rid of the underlying weak market, because the underlying consumption is still a stumbling block for cotton price rebound.

Companies are struggling to inventory and have a long journey. Since the Spring Festival, textile enterprises are busy digesting inventory, but the peak season of consumer demand is not strong, and sales of cotton yarn and cotton cloth are difficult. Moreover, many enterprises stock the cotton which is purchased at high cotton price and the price of Khmer price spun yarn. The price of products and raw materials is obviously upside down, and enterprises are facing losses. At the same time, under the background of tightening state bank loans, enterprises have tight liquidity. And the problem of tight liquidity is common in all aspects of cotton upstream and downstream, including Cotton merchant Textile enterprises, garment enterprises, this is also an important reason for the current market downturn. Recently, small textile mills in the Yangtze River Basin have cut down on production and production. Meanwhile, the power shortage in the Yangtze River Basin is very serious. Therefore, from the perspective of downstream consumption, Cotton price The pressure to rebound is still great.

Cotton planting area increased, supply surplus. At present, the main cotton producing countries in the southern hemisphere have been sold in Australia, Brazil and Argentina, and the main cotton producing countries in the northern hemisphere have gradually entered the seeding period. According to the prediction of relevant institutions, the area of the main cotton producing countries has increased in different ranges this year. The area of US cotton is estimated to be 12 million 565 thousand and 500 acres, up by 14.5% over the same period last year. The India Cotton Association predicts that India's cotton planting area will be expanded by 15% in 2011/2012. Egypt's cotton inspection and arbitration bureau predicts that the cotton planting area in Egypt will reach 3 million 311 thousand mu in 2011/2012, up 64% over the same period last year. According to the cotton planting intentions report released by China Cotton Research Institute in 2011, the area grew by 5%. According to our field survey, cotton planting area increased by 8% over the past year. If the late weather is good, the increase in area is bound to increase production. According to the latest forecast data from the US Department of agriculture, the total output of cotton in the 2011/2012 year was 27 million 155 thousand tons, an increase of 21.22% over the previous year, while the consumption volume increased by only 2.64%. The gap between supply and demand was significantly narrowed and exceeded 1 million 136 thousand tons compared with 2 million 948 thousand tons in the previous year. The pattern of excess supply of cotton in the new year is also a negative factor for cotton prices in the later stage.

The market will then lower the export tax rebate and direct the enterprise's psychological defense line. Although the export volume of textile and clothing increased by 27% over the same period in April, it was considered domestic. Cotton price Compared with the same period last year, 50%-70% rose, the cost of yarn and fabric also rose sharply, and the contribution rate of price increase in textile and clothing export increased, so the textile export situation is not optimistic. And the 16 day market related to the relevant departments of the state has passed the textile export tax rebate from 16% to 11% of the decision of the rumors again, directly to the mouth textile enterprise psychological defense line. If the rumor is finally true, then the textile enterprise's stride towards spring will be more difficult.

The overall market gap is obvious. Zheng cotton price has not yet exceeded the edge point of the box. Technically, the gap in the early stage of 26000 yuan has a demand for compensation, but based on the nature of price and supply and demand, the cotton price in the later stage is still falling down.