In April, The Growth Rate Of Foreign Exchange Accounted For &Nbsp, And The Hot Money Inflow Slowed Down.

Data released by the people's Bank of China on 18 may show that as of the end of 4, China's foreign exchange holdings amounted to 240143 billion yuan. In April, the foreign exchange accounted for 310 billion 700 million yuan, an increase narrower than that of March's about 400000000000 yuan.

This data is lower than the general expectation of the market. In April, the yuan continued to appreciate. Balance of trade surplus Against the backdrop of a sharp increase in the ratio, the market thought that China's new foreign exchange holdings will exceed March in April. However, data showed that the new volume in April dropped by 23.8% compared with March.

Analysts believe that the reduction in the actual utilization of foreign capital in April is a major reason for the decline in the increase in foreign exchange holdings. The future will not exclude the possibility that the short-term international capital will gradually slow down in China.

Statistics show that in April, China's actual use of foreign capital amounted to 8 billion 464 million US dollars, an increase of 15.21% over the same period last year, but it dropped by 32.40% compared to 12 billion 520 million in March.

Foreign exchange accounted for the central bank's acquisition of foreign exchange assets and the corresponding domestic currency. Fluctuations in foreign exchange occupying data, to a certain extent, reflect the short-term international cross-border. Capital flow Under the background of the recent US dollar rally, analysts believe that the pace of rapid cross-border capital inflow into emerging market countries will probably slow down.

Foreign exchange has always been regarded as an important driver to promote domestic liquidity in addition to new RMB loans.

Ding Zhijie, Dean of the school of finance of the University of foreign trade and economics, said in an interview with the economic reference daily that when the market was expected to introduce more stringent real estate control measures in China, there would be more obvious signs of rising in the domestic capital market (in view of the seesaw effect of the real estate market and stock market), however, the domestic capital market did not rise as expected, which confirms the slowing down of cross-border capital inflow in China.

"The increase in foreign exchange holdings has shown that the inflow of hot money is slowing down. With the reversal of the US dollar, short-term international capital has entered a stage of steady inflow from rapid inflow. If the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates, it will not rule out the phenomenon of hot money flowing out in a certain period of time. Zhang Qizuo, vice president of Chengdu University, said.

Since the 4 quarter of last year, there has been a surge of short-term international capital. According to Zhang Ming, an Associate Research Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences, he is experiencing the subprime mortgage crisis and European sovereignty. debt crisis After a short period of outflow, short-term international capital has been inflow from August 2010. In the 6 months from September 2010 to February 2011, short-term international capital accumulates more than US $200 billion.

In recent days, the US dollar index has temporarily dropped its downward trend. From a 72 point close to the 76 point, there has been a certain pullback. The reversal of the US dollar has brought fluctuations in commodity prices such as crude oil and gold, and has also led to a wave of overseas capital reflux.

The latest data from EPFR, an emerging market investment fund research firm, has just attracted a net inflow of US $265 million over the past week. So far this year, the fund has been redeemed for 5 billion 700 million US dollars.

Zhao Qingming, a senior research fellow at the Construction Bank, told the economic reference daily that foreign exchange data of financial institutions and foreign exchange accounts are often different from those of monetary authorities. Sometimes there may be a difference of 300 to 50 billion. In April, due to the relative rapid appreciation of the renminbi, financial institutions tended to sell foreign currencies, so the foreign exchange position of the central bank's balance sheet in April would be more than 310 billion 700 million yuan.

Zhao Qingming said that in general, the monthly foreign exchange reserves of financial institutions are between 200 billion and 300 billion yuan, but even so, the size of the money multiplier effect that is superimposed with four times is huge.