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In 3 Months, It Plunged By Ten Thousand Yuan &Nbsp, And The Cotton Market Was Faced With Difficult Choices.

2011/5/12 16:07:00 82

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Since the middle of February this year, the cotton market has been substantially adjusted, and the price per ton has dropped by more than 10000 yuan, or nearly 30%.

However, for the cotton market, prices will stabilize or continue to fall, and the market will be divided.

On Wednesday, cotton futures main contract 1109 opened at 25595 yuan / ton, closing at 25180 yuan, up 415 yuan compared with the 10 day settlement price.

After a sharp adjustment in the market since mid February,

Cotton market

There are signs of stabilization.

In May 10th, cotton futures significantly increased 76596 positions, holding a record of 671088 new records, and trading volume also hit more than 3 million 590 thousand times behind the November 24, 2010 level. The main contract 1109 closed at 25150 yuan / ton, up 1.53%.

"At present, futures prices hit the low level of 24180 yuan, which was sharply adjusted in November last year. There is stabilization in technology, and there is a certain amount of bottom money, as well as speculative trading demand to catch up, but the market outlook is still bearish, after all, the downstream poor state has not changed a bit."

Dong Shuangwei, a futures analyst, said.

In the early days when cotton prices were high, some textile enterprises hoarded a lot of cotton. At present, it is urgent to digest inventory, and the inventory of downstream cotton products needs to be further digested.

According to the April China cotton industry inventory survey report, the yarn sales rate of textile enterprises decreased by 8.8 percentage points, the lowest level since September 2008, and the stock ring ratio increased by 13.1 days, the highest level since March 2009. The sales rate of the cloth decreased by 1.4 percentage points, and the inventory ratio increased by 8.8 days, the highest level since March 2010.

The success of the digestion of cotton and its downstream products inventory will determine the space for the future rebound of cotton futures to a certain extent.

Especially since April.

Spinning enterprises

Stop production, limit production, holiday phenomenon generally increased, cotton spot prices in the adjustment is still in the doldrums, the entire industry is still in a weak pattern.

Dong Shuangwei believes that the impact of the recent restrictions on production and production of textile enterprises on the cotton market may be concentrated in the cotton market after June.

Although the downstream industry is not very prosperous, investors still hold a firm and optimistic attitude towards the future market.

To a certain extent, whether cotton futures can really pick up or fall will depend on the weather.

In terms of liquidity, the bull market pattern of commodities has not changed fundamentally before the Fed has yet to end its quantitative easing policy. If commodities represented by gold and crude oil continue to rise,

Cotton futures

The possibility of a further fall will be greatly reduced.

On the contrary, cotton futures will usher in at least a small and medium-sized rebound.

At the same time, the possibility that the central bank will raise interest rates again or raise the deposit reserve rate in May still exists.

If the Central Bank continues to tighten up the currency, it will greatly limit the rebound of cotton futures and even drop sharply again. If the central bank postpones monetary tightening, it will leave a breathing space for the rebound of cotton futures.