The Market Has Changed Dramatically, &Nbsp?

Since the beginning of April, the price of electronic disk has been declining all over the world, which has been spiralling downward before, and then directly into the descending channel, breaking the 2.8 or 2.7 mark directly, and going straight to 24 thousand yuan / ton. Under the guidance of the electronic disk, the spot price is dropping steadily, and the cotton index in May 9th is 328 yuan per 25655 yuan / ton. The information points of the cotton warning system in Hebei Province reflect that the actual price has been broken 24 thousand yuan / ton. In the face of such a dramatic market evolution, how the industry's performance and views are concerned?

First, Cotton enterprises Psychological differentiation, choose between persevering and evacuating.

It is understood that part of the acquisition and processing of cotton processing enterprises to accelerate sales, basically no Stock In the face of price changes, it is very easy to relax, while some enterprises have large stocks, less hundreds of tons, and more than 1000 tons. Individual enterprises only account for about 10% of the processing volume by now. In the face of great changes in the market, some are actively implementing sales promotion measures to speed up sales progress, so as to expeditiously withdraw and reduce losses; others refuse to "cut meat" and do not want to sell.

Two, the more textile companies fall, the wait-and-see wait for the market changes.

Cotton prices continue to slide, while textile companies remain unmoved. Cotton price The "wind vane" of a textile in Shandong has lowered its purchasing price of lint several times, which has made the market confidence hit. Cotton enterprises with sufficient raw materials are mainly consumed in inventory, and the textile enterprises are still not in a hurry to purchase because of the shortage of cotton raw materials (some cotton stocks with only ten days' stock). They believe that the price is down and the goods are coming out. It is convenient to use with the purchase, and can also prevent prices from falling and preventing risks.

Three, cotton brokers anxious and helpless, hoping that the latter market can bring back to life.

Recently, the provincial Cotton Association received a telephone call from the head of a cotton broker in Shishou, claiming that its more than 70 tons of lint were stored at a cost of about 2.6-2.7 million yuan per ton. With the sharp drop in cotton prices, his mood was also very anxious. He only wanted to keep the sales, but at the current price, he would have to sell. According to our understanding, there are similar agents in other parts of our province.

Four, drought and price have an impact on new cotton planting.

There are varying degrees of drought in some areas this year. The area without water has a great impact on the sowing and seedling raising of cotton. According to the statistics of the agricultural sector, as of April 27th, the drought area of cotton in the whole province reached 1 million 167 thousand and 500 mu, and the serious drought area was 120 thousand and 200 mu. Drought leads to slow transplanting, easy formation of stiff seedlings, and the survival rate of cotton seedlings. In addition, cotton prices continue to fall in recent years, which makes cotton growers' expectations of cotton income decrease.

Five, several mainstream views on the future market.

At present, the market is dominated by bad profits. The purchasing intention of textile enterprises is indifferent, and there is no obvious desire to replenish the stores. The market is in a slump, and the price of lint to the factory has dropped sharply. But at any time, the market players will not be one-sided in forecasting the future market. They will also be divided into bullish and bearish pie.

(1) reasons for bullish:

First, the foreign trade situation of the Canton Fair is showing signs of warmer growth, although the main reason is that short stakes are mainly due to factors such as the high exchange rate of RMB, the rising price of raw materials and the increase in labor costs.

Two, despite the impact of cotton prices in the past year, China's cotton planting area has shown a recovery growth. However, the gap between cotton and steel still exists, coupled with the recent drought in some parts of the region, which has increased the uncertainty of cotton production in the new year.

Three is the current domestic and foreign cotton prices upside down, if the cotton continues to be higher than domestic cotton prices, it means that domestic cotton prices will not drop too deep. It is predicted that there will be a rebound in new cotton market in 6-7 months.

(two) reasons for bearish: {page_break}

First, cotton production and demand are not prosperous. The price of raw materials procurement has been greatly reduced, and exports have been blocked.

Two, the textile situation is weak. From the perspective of textiles, cotton textile stocks increase, RMB exchange rate rises and textile export tax rebate adjustment rumors will all restrict the textile situation.

Two, the effect of falling crude oil has led to a sharp fall in commodities. In the short term, the market will remain stable in recent months.