Economic Data Will Be Released Tomorrow, Experts Say GDP Growth Slowed.

　　 trade deficit The impact on GDP will not be great. There is no need to worry that China's economy will decline.

According to the arrangement of the National Bureau of statistics, we will announce the annulus data of four statistical indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP), industrial added value above Designated Size, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) and total retail sales of social consumer goods, tomorrow. A number of agencies are expected to see that GDP growth is expected to be around 9.5% in the first quarter of this year. This figure fell by 0.3% over the previous quarter, but industry insiders say it is still growing at a high speed.

The report of the Bank of Communications (601328) Financial Research Center said that the GDP growth in the first quarter was expected to be 9.6%. Societe Generale Bank (601166) senior economist Lu Zheng commissar expects the GDP growth rate in the first quarter to be around 9.5%, slowing down 0.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of last year. CICC expects that GDP will grow 9.6% in the first quarter, down from 9.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, but the economic growth in the first quarter will be significantly lower than the fourth quarter of last year. The report points out that some leading indicators, such as new projects, credit growth and the real estate market, all show that the slowdown will continue.

The industry believes that GDP growth slowed in the first quarter, which is China. Macro-control The result.

This year, our country has intensified the macro-control of real estate. Judging from the current performance of the real estate market, the decline in housing turnover and the signs of falling housing prices show that the effect of macro-control policies has gradually emerged. At the same time, after the abolition of some preferential policies in the car market, the car market has cooled down compared with last year. The emergence of trade deficits is also a major reason for the slowdown in China's economy in the first quarter.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China's import volume once again exceeded exports in March, which was affected by strong domestic economic growth and rising international commodity prices. In the first quarter, China's cumulative deficit reached $1 billion 20 million, the first quarterly trade deficit in China in 6 years.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst of the macro strategy Department of Shenyang Wanguo Securities Research Institute, said there will be no deficit in the whole year, and the trade balance should increase by quarter. This year there will still be a surplus of about US $100 billion.

How much will the deficit affect the growth rate of GDP? Li Huiyong said that the deficit will not necessarily affect the GDP. In 2010, the balance of trade has been decreasing progressively, but GDP is increasing gradually. Therefore, the trade deficit will not have a great impact on GDP.

Although China's economic growth may slow down in the first quarter, insiders say there is no need to worry about whether China's future economy will decline. The recovery of PMI in March also showed that the smooth operation of our economy continued to consolidate.

Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Forecast Department of the National Information Center, said that this year is the year when the year 12th Five-Year begins. This year, we should deal with the cyclical change of the financial crisis. We should also consider the energy conservation and emission reduction policies adopted by China during the "12th Five-Year" period. The cyclical and structural problems are expected to slow the economy a bit slower this year than in 2010.

In addition to GDP, the trend of CPI is also one of the focus of attention. Many economists have pointed out that the prediction of CPI in March is facing great uncertainty because of the divergence of food prices monitored by the Ministry of agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce in March.

According to the monitoring data from the Ministry of agriculture, the wholesale price of agricultural products (000061) has dropped in March compared with February, while the Ministry of Commerce's monitoring data showed that the price of edible agricultural products had maintained a slight upward trend in the four weeks of March. However, in most cases, the Ministry of Commerce's monitoring data are released by the final statistics bureau. Price trend The degree of association is even higher.

Tang Jianwei, senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of Communications Research Center, said that referring to the Ministry of Commerce monitoring data, food prices rose by 0.5-1 percentage points in March. In view of the steady decline in the prices of non food products in recent months, non food prices were expected to fall somewhat from last month, about 2%.