Ma Jun: Anti Inflation Should Be The Most Important Part Of The Current Economic Work.

"Although January

The five reason raised CPI expectations.

Ma Jun said that the annual CPI control was less than 4%, so they also raised the CPI expectations for the whole year.

The reasons can be analyzed from the following five aspects: first, the real growth of the real economy exceeds expectations, which will further lead to the rise of raw material and energy prices and increase inflation expectations.

Behind the expected growth of the real economy, an important reason is that the monetary environment is too loose.

Last year, broad money and loans grew by nearly 20% over the same period last year, exceeding the M2 growth target of 17% at the beginning of the year.

This year, if the M2 growth target is set at 16%, it will still be too fast for an already inflationary economy.

The rising price of raw materials, which has occurred in the second, first series, will inevitably lead to an increase in consumer prices in the coming months.

For example, cotton prices rose by 86% last year, and clothing prices will definitely rise this year.

Third, the increase in rents will start to accelerate after 6~12 months of lag.

In fact, in February 15th, the CPI statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics in January showed that the price of living class rose by 6.8% over the same period last year, which is much higher than that of other commodities such as tobacco, clothing, clothing and so on, especially the price of housing rent increased by 7.1%, which confirms the obvious trend of rent rising everywhere since the end of last year.

Fourth, in recent months, wholesale prices of agricultural products have continued to rise rapidly, and will soon lead to processed food prices.

Recently, the Statistics Bureau reported the bumper harvest of agriculture in China last year, indicating that the increase of agricultural products prices is basically not a supply side problem, but to a large extent, the cost push and excess liquidity brought about the investment demand for agricultural products.

Therefore, if we do not reduce the economic growth and control the currency, it will be difficult to control food prices simply by increasing the supply of agricultural products.

Fifth, inflation expectations may in itself lead to an increase in the rate of money movement, thereby increasing inflationary pressures.

Policy will face two choices

In November 3rd last year, the United States has implemented the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, and the dollar will continue to weaken.

And the price of domestic agricultural products will continue to rise. For this reason, Ma Jun believes that China will still face greater inflationary pressure this year.

In the face of the current inflationary pressure, Ma Jun said that they believe that the policy will face two options: first, continue to maintain the current (in fact, too loose) macro policy, the result is that the short-term internal economic growth rate can continue to maintain more than 10% of the speed, but in the middle term, inflation may again exceed expectations. After that, it may have to tighten monetary policy sharply, suddenly slash investment projects, and implement price controls in a wider range.

Second, we should immediately take greater efforts to control and control, including strictly controlling new loans and new projects in the coming months, and raising interest rates rapidly (such as 50 basis points per time), striving to reduce the growth rate of annulus to 8% in the one or two quarter.

Only in this way can inflation be controlled within 4% in the second half of the year.

In other words, "in order to stabilize the macro-economy in the medium term, we must endure some adjustment pains in the short term."

Finally, Ma Jun stressed that inflation is already a serious reality problem. It is not only a matter of expectation. Anti inflation should be a top priority in the current economic work. Other policy objectives, including growth goals, should be compromised.