The Industry Believes That Cotton Prices Will Show A V Trend In 2011.
Zhengzhou cotton futures, which rose sharply in recent days, suspended the bull market in January 25th, following the overall decline of commodities. Insiders believe that in 2011 Zheng cotton Or will show the pattern of wide concussion finishing, the center of gravity will be located near the 24000-28000 yuan / ton interval.
At the beginning of 2011, it was visited by Australia.
cotton
The main production area is expected to reduce production by 110 thousand tons, and the US dollar index has changed from strong to weak, the flood disaster area in Brazil has expanded, the China Trade and investment promotion group has signed a contract in the United States to purchase Texas cotton and India government to maintain restrictions on cotton export policy and other factors.
From January 18th to January 25th, New York cotton futures rose six consecutive trading days, a cumulative increase of more than 14%. In January 25, the US cotton March contract price reached a record high of 163.84 cents / lb, and it was also the 150 year high since the American Civil War.
As of January 25th, new cotton rose by more than 12% in the month, and Zheng cotton rose more than 10%.
In 2010, China's cotton output was around 6 million 600 thousand tons, and its output was reduced by 8%.
It is estimated that the trend of global cotton production will not change in 2011.
Cotton prices will continue to remain high due to reduced supply.
2010 is the most uncomfortable year for cotton spinning enterprises.
The sharp rise in domestic and foreign cotton prices has a huge impact on many domestic textile enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.
cotton spinning
Product sales price stagflation and upstream cotton raw material prices rose sharply under the suppression of cotton spinning and home textile enterprises production costs and expenses surged, and sales revenue growth slow or even stagnation, the textile industry in 2010 profit situation is worrying or will lose money, at present, several listed textile enterprises disclosed that there was a loss in 2010.
It is estimated that domestic and foreign cotton prices will show a "V" trend in 2011. Because of the fast rise in cotton prices in 2010, the trend of 2011 will be deadlocked. The market is expected to launch a broad bull market shock adjustment.
From the trend, cotton prices are not strong enough to be strong again, and the market is more likely to start horizontal adjustment. In addition, the US cotton prices rose sharply in 2010, which greatly encouraged the enthusiasm of cotton growers for cotton planting in 2011. Therefore, the US cotton is expected to form a stage adjustment in the second half of 2011, which will affect the possibility that China's market will have a steady first and then adjust gradually after the first half of the year. That is to say, the cotton market will show a "V" trend in 2011.
Generally speaking, in 2011, Zheng cotton will show a pattern of wide shock finishing (near 24000 - 32000 yuan / ton interval), and the center of gravity will be located near the 24000 - 28000 yuan / ton interval.
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