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Our Defense Inflation Is "Three Rate" Or Rising.

2011/1/22 17:43:00 90

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The fall of CPI data in December last year did not resolve worries about the future inflation situation. Monetary policy tightening expectations are still strong. Analysts believe that in order to curb inflation, this year there will be a tight tightening of deposit reserve ratio, interest rate and exchange rate "three rates".

Worries about future inflation have led to strong expectations for continued tightening of monetary policy.

Li Huiyong, a macroeconomic analyst at Shen Wan Securities Research Institute, points out that in the first half of this year, the growth rate of deposit reserve rate, interest rate and exchange rate will rise at three rates in an inflation prevention situation.

"As a result of currency Overcontrol, China will still face a lot of capital injection as a global capital depressions.

Guaranteed currency

Liquidity is not in flood, and quantitative means are indispensable. Therefore, the deposit reserve ratio will be used as a routine return tool.

Li Huiyong said, in addition, the inflationary pressure is more serious than the ambassador's negative interest rate, and the increase in interest rate is also more urgent.

For the RMB exchange rate, Li Huiyong said,

RMB value

The uplift will reduce commodity price inflation and help reduce import inflationary pressure.

However, he pointed out that the appreciation of the renminbi is a need for revaluation of the renminbi and the need for China's industrial restructuring and upgrading. It is a long-term trend rather than a short-term policy arrangement.

Bank of communications also believes that the first half of this year

Macro-control

The focus of the policy will shift to full control of inflation risk. In the first half of the year, the rate of deposit reserve ratio, interest rate and exchange rate will rise to control inflation, and the possibility of future tightening will exceed three.

According to the research report released by the ANZ bank, monetary authorities need to tighten monetary tightening in 2011 to curb inflation and effectively manage the inflation expectations of ordinary residents.

In addition to the regular increase in the deposit reserve ratio to shrink market liquidity, the Central Bank of China needs to introduce interest rate policy to gradually solve the problem of real negative interest rates faced by China.

At the same time, the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi will also alleviate the inflationary pressure to a certain extent. However, the appreciation of the renminbi will inevitably bring about capital inflow and other issues.

For the future policy expectations, Bank of communications predicts that the current demand for credit and the pressure of capital inflow are greater, which makes the reserve ratio increase more urgent. The dynamic adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio and the differential reserve ratio will be carried out at the same time. It is estimated that the degree of merger effect may be equivalent to the 4 increase and 0.5 percentage points of each time.

The continuous and substantial increase in interest rates will be constrained by the expansion of the US and China spreads, which may lead to capital inflow and a slight drop in economic growth. They expect that the benchmark interest rate of deposit and loan will rise by 2~3 times by the end of 2011, 0.25 percentage points each time.