Zheng Cotton And More Rumors To &Nbsp, Slowly Rising Trend

Recently, Zheng cotton futures have been on the rise for several consecutive days, leaving the "five Lian Yang" market. Insiders say that cotton prices will remain high and volatile in 2011 because of the tight supply and demand side, but the unilateral rally like last September will be difficult to renew.

Lido is full of rumors.

On the 20 day, Zheng cotton 1109 contract opened at 29505 yuan / ton, closing at 29640 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, or 0.37%.

US cotton has also maintained a high and volatile trend.

Liu Qing, an analyst at new lake futures, told reporters, "at present, there are many rumors in the cotton market.

Liu Qing said that half of the southern half of the United States (except California) has moderate / severe drought, which may affect farmers' cotton planting intentions this spring.

Long term forecasts show that the dry weather continues until May, so cotton planting, early germination and even seed cotton yield will be affected.

The main cotton producing areas in the Yellow River River Basin (Shandong and Henan) are also experiencing severe drought, which has potential adverse effects on cotton planting in the next year.

In addition, the general increase in grain prices at home and abroad will reduce the planting area of cotton next year.

"Although the replenishment of the festival is coming to an end,

Reporters noted that Zheng cotton futures did not appear to have soared before, but maintained a slight upward trend in the near future.

In this regard, Xu Liang, a futures analyst at East Asia, said, "the import price of cotton imported from the current US cotton price is less than 26000 yuan, so the domestic cotton price is relatively high.

Therefore, the domestic price of cotton is relatively small. It is at least very difficult to break through 33000 yuan again.

However, under the influence of global cotton production and tight supply, the domestic cotton falling space is also very limited, and it is more difficult to go back to 25000. "

Unilateral inflation is difficult to continue

As for the cotton market, many people in the industry believe that cotton prices will remain high and volatile in 2011 because of the tight supply and demand side.

Analyst Xu Liang said the future

Analyst Liu Qing believes that from the current cotton fundamentals and technical performance, if there is no unexpected bad stimulus, cotton prices will be difficult to adjust in the short term and continue to be optimistic about post market quotations.

If futures prices fall to 28500-29000, the 1109 price can still be laid down.

Huang Junfei, an analyst with Yangtze futures, believes that in addition to cotton production and initial inventory, national policy orientation, exchange rate changes and the rhythm of imports of cotton are all factors that will affect the future trend of cotton prices.

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He said, from the trend of supply, the trend of domestic cotton planting area will continue, because the current strategic position of China's grain security will not change, only when cotton prices continue to rise enough to bring cotton growing area.

Demand, in addition to textile enterprises this year's good results and expand production, price increases also objectively stimulate investment and speculative demand.

Therefore, the turning point of the cotton bull market will only occur when there is excess demand and deterioration.

That is to say, if the RMB appreciates substantially, or the macro-economy will recalitate again, the loose monetary environment will end and the demand will deteriorate, the trend of uplink of cotton will change.

Otherwise, high cotton prices will become a norm.

"The overall situation of cotton price fluctuation in 2011 will be stable. Due to the existence of macroeconomic regulation and control and a series of uncertainties, it is estimated that the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton will run in the range of 22000 yuan / ton to 31000 yuan / ton in 2011, and will show the trend of" low in the first half of the first half of the year ".

Huang Jun flew to reporters.