World Cotton Inventory /&Nbsp; Consumption Ratio To 15 Years Minimum
In 2010, the Advanced Research Center for Applied Economics (Cepea-Brazil) of Brazil Agricultural College of University of Sao Paulo was expected to be confirmed early this year.
Domestic and foreign market prices of cotton are all high.
Demand is strong, supply is limited, and end inventory is decreasing.
Stock /
The consumption ratio dropped to the lowest level in 15 years.
The development of the world economy has stimulated demand growth, and the supply has been reduced because of the shrinking of planting area in some important cotton producing countries and the decrease in yield per unit area.
In the second half of 2010, buyers were more cautious about new trade, and they expected prices to rise with cotton.
Pick
The season is coming down.
Therefore, the price increase was small in July.
In August, cotton prices in the domestic market increased significantly, mainly affected by demand, and spot market demand was greater than supply.
Due to low inventories, cotton demand in Brazil and the world started a high fever in the second half of 2010.
Data from Conab (national food supply company) showed that the output of 2009/10 was 1 million 294 thousand tons, 1.6% less than that of 2008/09.
On the last day of 2009 and December 30, 2010, the CEPEA/ESALQ cotton 41-4 index (
St Paul City
Delivery, 8 days' payment) surged 114.86% to 2.9147 or 1.7516 dollars / pound, reaching a new high in December, 30.
According to the data released by the US Department of agriculture in December 10th, the world output in 2010/11 should increase by 14% to 25 million 200 thousand tons.
China and Pakistan are the two major cotton producing countries in the world, but the two countries will face a decline in production.
As for consumption, the advanced research center of Applied Economics of Brazil Agricultural College of University of Sao Paulo expects that higher cotton prices will stimulate the replacement of raw materials and the demand for cotton will be reduced.
World demand may be reduced by 1.8% to 25 million 300 thousand tons.
But consumption is expected to be higher than supply, so end inventory may decline.
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