Saturday Shoe Industry Channel Sink Or Bring Performance Inflection Point

There are securities analysts pointed out that

according to

On Saturday (002291:0, 0, 0) recommended by Anshun securities this morning, it has improved in the first quarter of this year and some time later or has improved its business performance. The possibility of this promotion comes from the company's previous channel sinking, channel integration and large-scale marketing investment. Investors can pay attention to these changes, and staged investment opportunities will appear after the first quarter of 2011.

Specifically, on Saturday, it has started a small test of brand operation on many brands. On Saturday, in the competitive brand women's shoes industry, it has always adhered to the "ST&SAT" brand, but has begun to try multi brand operation, including "SAFIYA", "FBL" and "IIXVIIX". The brand growth is rapid. At present, there are about more than 1700 shops in the country. Among them, "SAFIYA" and "FBL" have 300 and 100 stores nationwide. The expansion mode of multi brand operation has achieved some success, but more than 60% of the company's revenue comes from the "ST&SAT" brand.

In the future, Anxin Securities pointed out that the sinking of the company's sales channels was successful in the first quarter of 2011.

At present, the leading brand "ST&SAT" on Saturday is the famous brand of women's shoes in the industry. The coverage rate of the second tier cities is 90% and 70%-80% respectively, which is effective competition with the BELLE brand of BELLE, but the coverage ratio of the three or four tier cities is relatively low, and there is a big gap between the "BELLE" and the "BELLE".

Therefore, in 2010, the company formulated the strategy of channel sinking. In 2010 June, the famous actor Gianna Jun was hired as the brand spokesperson. By increasing the retail terminal advertising investment, the three or four line market was expanded, and the speed of opening the shop was significantly faster than in previous years.

From the data point of view, in 2009 and 2008, the company opened about 100 shops. In 2010, the number of new stores is expected to exceed 300. The maturity of new shops is generally around half a year. It is estimated that the first quarter of 2011 should be the beginning of Saturday's sinking of channels and the contribution of new shops.

In addition, Anxin securities also expects the first half of 2011 to be the turning point of Saturday's growth. Due to massive marketing investment and channel integration in 2010, the inflection point of Saturday's performance may be established in the first half of 2011.

In the second half of 2010, in order to cope with the sinking of the channel, investment in advertising and channel marketing increased on Saturday, and the investment of Anxin securities was estimated at around 20 million yuan.

At the same time, potential brands such as "SAFIYA", "FBL", "IIXVIIX" and other potential brands need to be integrated after the rapid expansion of the channels, which have led to a substantial increase in sales and management costs on Saturday in 2010, engulfing the growth of current performance.

With the gradual maturity of new stores on Saturday in the first quarter of 2011, the turning point of Anxin securities's judgement of company performance will be established in the first half of 2011.

In terms of performance forecasts, Anxin securities is more optimistic about its performance on Saturday and 2011. It is believed that with the establishment of the channel sinking strategy, the company's expansion in the next 2-3 years will enter the fast lane. It is expected that the size of the company will double on the current basis by 2012, and it is estimated that the EPS from 2010 to 2012 will be 0.41 yuan, 0.66 yuan and 0.94 yuan respectively.