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China'S Cotton Supply Is Tight &Nbsp; Exporting Countries Are Tightening Shipments.

2010/12/15 15:38:00 75

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According to the latest analysis of Cotton Corp, the ICE cotton futures rose rapidly after November, and then rebounded quickly.

At the same time, reflecting International

spot price

The level of the A index also fluctuated sharply, but with the support of tight supply, spot prices fell less than futures.

According to the monthly report of the US Department of agriculture in December, the world's cotton production increased by 61 thousand tons this year, with the main growth coming from the southern hemisphere. The output of Brazil and Australia increased by 130 thousand tons and 110 thousand tons respectively, offset the decrease in output from Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Greece and the United States.

It should be noted that in recent years, frequent rainfall in Australia, cotton production is hard to achieve.

At the same time, the consumption of Pakistan and India decreased greatly, which reduced the global cotton consumption.

Due to the increase in global production and the reduction in consumption, the end of the world stock increased slightly by 260 thousand tons, and the stock consumption rose from 36.1% to 37.3%, but it is still at a historical low.

Behind the tight global supply and demand is China's continued prosperity.

Imported

Demand.

China's supply and demand gap is roughly 3 million 800 thousand tons in 2009/10 and 2010/11. Therefore, imports must be increased. This is also the main reason for the tight supply and demand worldwide.

In the first four months of this year, the US 2010/11 export contract volume has reached a record 3 million 26 thousand tons. If the amount of 784 thousand tons in the United States is calculated, the total consumption of US cotton (3 million 810 thousand tons) has accounted for 96% of the total cotton output (3 million 984 thousand tons).

In the past few years, the US cotton has been the last barrier for the global cotton export market, and this year, the United States cotton can no longer play this role, even if the US cotton production increased by 50% last year, it will not help.

At the same time, India

Cotton export

The policy is also of great concern. It is estimated that the India cotton that will be able to ship the export by December 15th will not reach 890 thousand tons of the approved export.

In addition, the shipment of other exporting countries is not optimistic.

The political instability in the Ivory Coast is likely to affect the shipment of West African cotton, and the logistics system in Australia is under pressure, which led to the reduction of Australia's cotton exports by 109 thousand tons in USDA's monthly report in December.

It seems that under the situation that global supply is already very tight, the export shipping situation of the major cotton exporting countries is not optimistic, which creates conditions for the sustained high international cotton prices.