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China'S Export Growth Slowed Month By Month In November

2010/12/8 17:28:00 75

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Since May 2010, China's export growth has slowed down month by month, or this trend will continue in November.

As usual, the General Administration of Customs will announce the import and export data of November in China on Friday, December 10th.

Caixin media issued questionnaires to a number of financial institutions research departments in early December to investigate its forecast value for November 2010 macroeconomic data.

Of the 17 respondents, 10 thought that export growth would slow down, with a forecast average of 22.5%, slightly lower than 22.9% in October, of which the lowest value was 18%, with a maximum value of 28.1%.

The China International Capital Co Research Department reported that export growth was affected by weakening external demand and continued to slow down to 21.9%.

Wang Tao, a Chinese economist at UBS, believes that under the influence of a steady growth rate but a cardinality effect,

Exit

Year-on-year growth will slow down.

She expects export growth to be 18% in November.

Recent export leading indicators are not consistent.

In the Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the new export orders index in November increased 0.6 percentage points from October to 53.2%.

The Shanghai container pport's China export container freight index, which fell from 1134 at the end of October, to 1075.84.

Lu Zheng commissar, a senior economist at Xingye Bank, believes that China's export container freight index has been declining for a long time, which may be affected by the traditional off-season brought by the Christmas season, and is affected by the weakening demand of the European and American economic recovery.

However, the working day increased in November, considering the correlation between exports and working days. In November, exports increased by 28.1% over the same period last year.

Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Chinese economist Song Yu believes that the new export of PMI

Order

The index and Goldman Sachs Global leading indicator (GLI) indicators have improved in recent months, indicating a better external demand.

Meanwhile, the depreciation of the RMB trade weighted exchange rate for four consecutive months has also brought additional impetus to export growth.

He expects export growth to rise to 27% in November.

In terms of imports, the average forecast value of 17 economists was 24.95%, slightly lower than that of 25.3% in October, of which the highest value was 32.5% and the lowest value was 20%.

The research department of CIC believes that the import growth dropped to 23.3% in November due to the high base effect, but the ring ratio is still positive.

Only one of the economists surveyed believed that import growth was slower than export growth, which means that

Balance of trade surplus

It will narrow down.

Economists forecast a trade surplus of $21 billion 523 million, significantly lower than $27 billion 100 million in October, with a maximum value of only $25 billion 860 million, with a minimum value of $17 billion 900 million.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities in Greater China, believes that the recent export performance is strong and import growth is down. It is expected that the trade surplus will continue to be higher in November, which is expected to reach US $21 billion.

The high trade surplus will accelerate the appreciation of the RMB. It is expected that the renminbi will be close to 6.55 against the US dollar at the end of the year.