Fluctuations In Raw Materials, Relatively Stable Quality Enterprises

　 Despite the rising prices of raw materials, textile and garment retail enterprises have pricing power. Raw material price increases have little impact on their performance. We expect raw materials to depreciate in the first half of next year, and the prices of already rising retail products are hard to reduce. Since the beginning of this year, the textile and garment retail enterprises have experienced a substantial increase, and the dynamic P / E ratio is 30-45 times, and some of the mediocre enterprises also get an overvalued value. We believe that the textile and garment retail sector will be differentiated in the future. Only those enterprises with high quality, reasonable business strategy and sustained growth in performance can maintain the current valuation level.

　???? Our industry strategy is always optimistic about textile and garment retail enterprises. Next year, when raw material prices stabilize, productive enterprises may have investment opportunities.

Despite the rising prices of raw materials, textile and garment retail enterprises have pricing power. Raw material price increases have little impact on their performance. We expect raw materials to depreciate in the first half of next year, and the prices of already rising retail products are difficult to reduce.

We are still optimistic about the future development prospects of domestic textile and garment retail market, and the performance of high quality textile and garment retail enterprises is expected to achieve about 30% growth.

The surge of textile materials in the second half of this year is more of a capital factor. Finance Attributes, as domestic liquidity tightens, raw material prices have begun to decline significantly, raw material prices in the short term sharp rise and fall is not conducive to the production enterprise operation, the price is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year, then production enterprises have investment opportunities;

We believe that the textile and garment retail enterprises have been at the time when the market thought that the upper limit of reasonable valuation should be bought and held. The decline is the opportunity to buy, unless the company's management strategy is not in line with the future market situation, brand positioning and strength.

Since the beginning of this year, the textile and garment retail enterprises have experienced a substantial increase, and the dynamic P / E ratio is 30-45 times, and some of the mediocre enterprises also get an overvalued value. We believe that the textile and garment retail sector will be differentiated in the future. Only those enterprises with high quality, reasonable operation and sustained growth in performance can maintain the current valuation level. Recommended portfolio: it is still recommended to focus on seven wolves (002029), Weixing (002003), Roley (002293), fuanna (002327), Meng Jie (002397), and good bird (002154) and other companies. Hong Kong stocks recommended that Anta (02020) and BELLE (01880) should be concerned, and the production enterprises should pay attention to Huafu color spinning (002042) and Lu Tai (000726). (state securities)

Cotton prices remain bullish, textile and apparel stocks are mixed.

The international cotton price has reached a 140 year high and has been sharply revised recently. Some analysts pointed out that under the shortage of supply, cotton prices remain good for the future, and the rise in cotton prices will certainly increase the cost of textile and garment industry. Investors should pay attention to the pressure of the company to increase their costs when selecting related stocks. XTEP International (HK) is optimistic about XTEP (1368). It thinks that the average price of the first two quarters of next year will increase by double digits, which is expected to outperform cotton prices. Hongkong Business Daily reporter Zhang Weihong

International cotton prices are at all-time highs per pound. One point five one The US dollar dropped 8 trading days yesterday. One point one three The US dollar has fallen by 25%. In fact, China's cotton price 328 index also fell 8 trading days, from 31281 points to 27881 points, with a total decline of nearly 11%.

Cotton prices increase nearly doubled production costs

What is the future of cotton prices? Wen Jinhui, director of Huatai Finance (Hongkong), said that the cotton price fundamentals are good except for the short-term negative news. First, market funds are still abundant, and two is supply shortage. Wen pointed out that, as the largest cotton exporter in the world, the area of cotton fields in the United States decreased; India, the second largest cotton grower, issued export restrictions this year; Pakistan, the fourth largest cotton growing country in the world, suffered a dramatic decline in output due to floods. The official estimate of cotton production in 2010 to 2011 was reduced from 2 million 380 thousand tons to 1 million 970 thousand tons.

According to past experience, the supply gap generally takes two years to fill, and it is estimated that cotton prices will continue to rise steadily. Cotton prices have been rising all the way since August, and the period has increased more than doubled, which has increased the production cost of the textile and garment industry.

　 Cotton merchants shift their best position at cost

According to Credit Suisse, cotton prices have risen significantly in the past two months and have mixed effects on the textile industry. However, due to the shortage of supply, more upstream producers have better ability to shift the cost increase.

The bank is optimistic about Tianhong textile (2678), which is expected to be 2010 and 11 years. profit Increased by 114% and 21% respectively, is the first choice in the industry. Five point seven Raise to Six point seven Yuan, a potential 11% increase from current prices.

According to the company's first half performance report, Tianhong textile gross margin increased. 7.6% to 19.2% Above the industry leader, Wei Qiao textile (2698). 12.5% 。 In terms of share prices, since the beginning of this year, the total volume of Tianhong textile has risen to as high as Five point eight one Times outperform the industry.

In terms of apparel stocks, XTEP International (Anta) recommends XTEP (1368), mainly because the company has locked in production costs in the first half of next year. It is estimated that the average selling price has double digit growth, which is larger than that of the 360 degree (1361) and Anta (Anta) units. Bank of China International's latest target price for the stock is Eight point three six Yuan. In addition, XTEP has announced orders for the second quarter of 2011. Increase As high as 25%, it belongs to one of the highest growth rates in the industry. On the contrary, Lining (2331) orders growth in 11 years is lower than that in 2010.

Ye Jianzhong, vice president of International Research Department of Bank of communications, said that XTEP was attacking the two or three tier cities and took the popular route. The average selling price of clothing products was about 52 yuan in the first half of this year, and the average price of clothing products was about 52 yuan.

Interest rate increase in textile industry

Haitong Securities issued a report that the hidden worries of the textile and garment industry will not only be affected by the price of cotton, but also will increase its cost in the mainland. The bank believes that interest rates increase interest rates in the textile industry. Nine point one four Billion yuan, accounting for the total profit. Seven hundred and sixty-four point two one Billion yuan 1.2% Raising interest rates to increase interest payments for the garment industry. Two point three four Billion yuan, accounting for the total profit. Three hundred and forty-five point three three Billion yuan 0.7% 。 The bank maintains a neutral rating on the textile industry, and proposes to increase the undervalued shares of the apparel industry.