Cotton Association Of Hubei Province: The Spot Price Of Cotton Has Been Shocked In The Near Future.

First, reducing production is a foregone conclusion, and there is a slight difference in harvest time.

Affected by climate change, cotton production per unit decreased year by year.

According to members of Xincheng Cotton Professional Cooperative in Qianjiang, the rainwater in July this year, the high temperature in August, and the low temperature in September have been unfavorable for cotton growth, which generally reduced production by 10-20%.

Shayang, Zhongxiang, Xiangfan, Jujube and other places also reflect that the yield per unit area decreased by about 20% over the same period last year.

In addition, because of different planting habits, seasons and soil characteristics, the cotton harvest period was different. In late October, Xiangfan began to dial the rod. After the partial oil in Qianjiang, the cotton was delayed due to pplanting, and nearly 50% of the crops were not harvested.

Two, increasing the income of cotton planting will increase the enthusiasm of cotton planting in the coming year, and many factors will restrict it.

Three, the recent sharp adjustment of cotton prices, the market is strong.

Recently cotton

1, cotton farmers showed relatively mild performance and a small number of reluctant sellers.

The price of cotton continues to decline, and cotton growers are more moderate. Most cotton farmers believe that cotton price is 4-5 yuan / Jin, which is hard to come by.

Even if there are stored cotton, or a small number of high grade flowers that few cotton farmers want to hoard, they are recently harvested and not yet available for sale.

Cotton farmers believe that if the purchase price falls below 5 yuan, it will be considered for storage after the festival.

2, Cotton Traders selling and selling together, showing a small peak sales.

The impact of falling prices on Cotton Traders is the first to bear the brunt. Continuous price declines have made cotton traders afraid to purchase easily. Cotton traders who have cotton reserves either hang up because of the price of purchase and sale, and are reluctant to sell.

The person in charge of a purchasing processing plant in Shayang said that before the acquisition processing plant sent information to the cotton traders to seek resources, now the market balance was pposed, and the cotton traders were flocking to the market for second days, and queued for sale at the gate of the acquisition factory. They bought from 7 a.m. to 3 o'clock in the middle of the night, and only received 10-20 kilograms on weekdays, which bought about 900000 kg of seed cotton, and the quality was obviously higher than that in the early stage.

Some cotton traders who hoarded large quantities and gamble in the post market have reversed their buying and selling prices, and the potential deficit has reached about one hundred thousand yuan.

There are still some cotton hoarding traders who are still optimistic about the market outlook. At present, a small number of exploratory sales are being carried out to see the changes in the market.

3, cotton acquisition processing plant should reduce the purchase price, increase the control of various indicators.

Most of the acquisition processing plants believe that the current decline in prices is conducive to acquisition, which not only can lower the cost of pre acquisition, but also is conducive to the implementation of the procurement quality standard.

They adjusted the purchase price in a timely manner, and the average price before the price dropped or 6.5-6.9 yuan / Jin, the highest price reached 7-7.2 yuan / Jin, the next day it reached 5.9 yuan / Jin.

A person in charge of a purchasing plant in Jujube said that it is now a game between buyers and sellers, and is also an observation period for the market.

4, textile mills believe that prices fall in line with expectations, production, procurement shrinkage, wait-and-see is the main.

Textile mills believe that futures prices fall and drive spot prices down is an inevitable trend. The head of the procurement department of a textile mill in Xiangfan said that the sales of yarn and cloth were relatively smooth, and the downstream cotton prices basically agreed and accepted the cotton price of 30 thousand yuan in the early stage. However, there was a big adjustment in the near future, and the policy did not support the increase in cotton prices. At the same time, the factory had nearly 1 months' cotton stocks, so the current procurement and purchase of raw materials were mainly based on wait and see.

He said that textile mills are not afraid of high cotton prices. The most worrying thing is that cotton prices are unstable and can not accurately determine the cost and affect downstream orders.

At present, the production in the factory is basically normal. Because of the frequent price fluctuation, we dare not receive a large number of orders and orders. At the same time, it is also a stable employment. At present, the production of conventional products is mainly and the order production is secondary. If the situation continues to tighten, we are prepared to respond to market risks by shortening commencement time and slowing down production.

Four, Zheng cotton futures continued to limit, there is a big difference in the prediction of the future.

There are always two views on the post trend forecast: cotton prices are steady, 28 thousand yuan, 30 thousand yuan and 32 thousand yuan continue to be fulfilled.

Recently, the continuous decline of futures and foreign markets has led to a big divergence in market forecasts. Generally speaking, prudence has overshadowed optimism.

The reason for the Bulls comes from gaps, processing costs, national regulatory capacity and time span.

They believe that the reduction of cotton production this year is an indisputable fact. The amount of textile cotton is a rigid demand, and the gap must exist. At present, the purchase amount of cotton has accounted for 80% of the total output, and the high acquisition cost (lint 26000-28000 yuan / ton) is a foregone conclusion. Cotton purchasing processing factories can not break through the cost and loss management. The new cotton market from now to the next year has a long 8-9 months. As time goes on, resources will continue to consume and prices will rebound. The price should go back to 30 thousand yuan and continue to go up.

The current adjustment is only short-term. The chain reaction of the market is mainly the continuous price reduction, which has frustrated market confidence, but the strong pattern of cotton will not change.

Bearer mainly believes that the market does not support high cotton prices, the current price has violated the law of value, not the real market supply and demand performance, there is a large element of capital speculation, and the role of national macro-control can not be ignored, coupled with the background of the international market of cotton, the global resources are basically balanced, with the downstream digestion weak, imported cotton to Hong Kong, Xinjiang cotton out of Xinjiang, cotton prices will continue downward.

A more neutral view is that the price will be lowered. At present, this situation will continue to fall below the fundamentals. Excessive falls will be possible. However, the fall will not exist for a long time. When the market is confirmed, it will return to its due fundamentals quickly. The bottom line of the fall should be the purchase and processing costs, which will be the fundamental aspect of the three party's balanced interests in the cotton industry.